Craig and Randy Harris, President and Founder of Trendex North America, discuss the success of international retailers entering the Canadian market at a challenging time for the economy. That includes Nordstrom exiting Canada, and some success stories.
The Interview Series audio podcasts by Retail Insider Canada are available on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, TuneIn, Google Play, or through our dedicated RSS feed for Overcast and other podcast players. Also check out our The Weekly audio podcast where Craig and Lee discuss popular content published on Retail Insider which is part of the The Retail Insider Podcast Network.
Featured during this interview:
- Randy Harris, President at Trendex North America
- Trendex North America
- Trendex North America Newsletter
Transcript:
Announcer
This is a Retail Insider Podcast. You’re listening to the interview series.
Craig Patterson
Welcome to the Retail Insider podcast. I’m your host, Craig Patterson. And we’re joined here with a special guest, Randy Harris. He’s president and founder of Trendex North America. Welcome, Randy.
Randy Harris
Thank you. It’s nice to be here.
Craig Patterson
And we’re going to talk a little bit today about the Canadian retail clothing market. And we’re going to go over some discussion points here that are quite interesting, including some of the problems we’re seeing in Canada. So where would you like to begin, Randy?
Randy Harris
Well, first of all, I’d like to begin by talking about some concerns that I have with analysis that are being done of the Canadian clothing market in general and Nordstroms exit in particular.
Craig Patterson
What concerns with retail analysis? Are you seeing?
Randy Harris
There are a number of organizations that are in one way or the other have skin in the game when it comes to the $33 Billion Dollar Canadian apparel market, and from my perspective, they are all failing the Canadian apparel industry.
Craig Patterson
Are there any general groups or organizations with skin in the game that you’re thinking of?
Randy Harris
The first group is made up of financial analysts in the majority of newspaper business writers, which failed to engage in critical financial analysis.
Craig Patterson
Is there anything specifically that makes you disappointed in Canadian retail reporting?
Randy Harris
This is a group that unfortunately, based on their track record, refuses to speak truth to power when it comes to a retailer.
Craig Patterson
Really?
Randy Harris
When was the last time Craig, any analysts wrote a negative report about a company asked a probing question to a CEO doing a quarterly presentation, or heaven forbid, suggested that a company’s stock be shorted? When was the last time a publication ran a negative story about a retailer before it folded, including Sears, Dialects, Le Chateau, etc?
Craig Patterson
Why do you think Canadian retail journalism has gotten to this point?
Randy Harris
There are two reasons for the situation, I believe. The first is Canadians are nice people in a small country. And there is a perceived need for everyone to play nice in order to get along. This is partially accomplished by not saying anything negative. The second reason is that publishing a negative review or article about a retailer runs the risk of the company that is being profiled calling its advertising or investment business.
Craig Patterson
Wow. And have you seen any instances where politeness or advertising has been pulled?
Randy Harris
Personally, I can identify with his concern is that seven years ago, after writing a very negative story about Sears Canada, I was personally sued by $6 Million Dollars, by Sears Canada, a long story, but in the end, they grabbed their suit. So I personally experienced this kind of intimidation. So I it’s my understanding that a lot of retail writers in particular are very nervous about what they put in print about the big retailers in Canada. I don’t think that’s a known fact. And it’s ever really been said before in the way I’ve just said it.
Craig Patterson
But you mentioned there were two groups who were they?
Randy Harris
The second group that’s not doing the job is made up of Canadian retail consultants, and to a lesser degree, retail survives, who are intellectually lazy, and that they feel failed to keep up with the industry data in 95% of the cases they make comments that are not true. This is a group who is made up of people who last year said that Ecommerce will take over from a retail brick and mortar that certainly is not the case. But had they looked at the statistics they would have seen. It was a one year phenom. Apparel prices are going up your own publication last fall did an interview with the man who talked about rising prices for apparel, last year apparel prices in Canada went up 0.8%. That’s the fifth year in a row they didn’t go up. So when someone writes a story and says there’s inflationary pressures in the apparel industry, they have not looked at the data.
Craig Patterson
What other retail experts were concerned with?
Randy Harris
Another person who says recently up price retailing is failing in Canada. I’m sorry. When you look at the CEO of TJX and the factory outlet malls are focusing on the better product areas. They’re growing tremendously. So there is no data that they quoted in that story, that said that factory outlet or off price retailers fail and lastly, some woman had the temerity to say that she was proud of Zellers coming back and they would be a strong new participant in the market because of a nostalgic factor. And that Canadians would flock to fellas because of nostalgia. Now, I asked you, what is the nostalgic factor associated with Zellers men’s underwear?
Craig Patterson
Yeah, I’m not sure how Zellers nostalgia would play into men’s underwear, Randy
Randy Harris
Being facetious, I hope, you know that! I think that was the most insane comment. I’ve heard
Craig Patterson
Was there something more about the retail expert group that was concerning with Zellers?
Randy Harris
This is the same group that lifted why some foreign retailers in Canada fail without 10 times more, noting those that succeeded.
Craig Patterson
Oh, so why didn’t the larger successful foreign retailers get mentioned and just the failures?
Randy Harris
Why didn’t as much larger group fall victim to consultant who would say that retailers fail? In Canada because of logistical challenges, differences in consumer case, economies of sale, and a lack of understanding of the competitive framework in Canada. A recent article in your publication lifted those four reasons why American retail fail. All of these reasons might be valid. If and this is a biggie if foreign retailers were operating in 100 cities across Canada, but in fact, they’re only operating in four to six markets. So tell me what is the difference between a Canadian consumer in Toronto, in Ottawa and in Vancouver, when it comes to their needs, wants and aspirations? The answer is there is no difference.
Craig Patterson
Hmm. Are there any other groups?
Randy Harris
The last group that I’m concerned about that’s failing the industry is made up of two large Canadian Associations, who will remain nameless, who coincidentally are having large member meetings during the next 60 days. Both events they’ll look include any speaker who might draw the offense of any Association member. So basically, they don’t invite anybody that might threaten a member. Hopefully, the preceding rant will provide some context for my comments during the rest of the interview. Bottom line, at least the apparel industry needs to critically evaluate all of the old wives tales that permeate the industry, and engage in more fact checking before making comments. Like why do so many American retailers fail in Canada?
Craig Patterson
This is fascinating. And I want us to be honest about things here with retail Insider, and with this recording here. So let’s dive a little bit more into this because I do want to talk about this. And I want to be honest, I don’t want to be one of those journalists or people that are interviewing someone who is trying to sugarcoat things here, and I may be somewhat responsible for that here now. And then as well, I think we all are as nice Canadians, but the reality is there are challenges out there. And you know, let’s be honest about it. So I’m curious, where do you want us to? When are we gonna go next with the conversation, Randy?
Randy Harris
Well, I think the first thing we have to talk about is, is Mark Cohen’s comments about the fact that international retailers who jumped the borders are not successful. And that’s exactly what he said and he gets 100% wrong. There is no doubt about it. When you look at Canada, we have 140 apparel retailers that are foreign owned that are operating in Canada. 140 not 4 what do you say about people who talk about Uniqlo, H&M, Inditex, they’re not suffering. They’re all over the world. We take people like footlocker in Canada does a very good job. And then we can keep going. The largest apparel retailer in Canada is Winners. The sixth largest is Old Navy. Now tell me what is the difference between what Old Navy sells in Canada, or the Gap and what it sells in the United States, there is no difference. There might be one style, there might be two, the Canadian consumer is the same as the American consumer. And it’s becoming more so because of Generation X and Y, who’s influenced by the same influencers and feeds the same commercials and goes into the same stores. So this whole idea that there are differences in the market is baloney. There might be when it comes to Canadian Tire, there’s no doubt about it. But when we’re talking about apparel, There’s more foreign retailers in the apparel segment than in any other segment of the Canadian market in the 90% are successful 40 new foreign retailers apparel have entered the market in the last five years. I get that from your statistics, by the way, every January. So I’ve thank you for doing the research for me on that. Thank you. But I always give you credit retailing.
Craig Patterson
Oh Thank You. Yeah, we tried to I hope we get them all to we tried to build that list
Randy Harris
But you really do, so it’s a myth. There’s two myths. One is that foreign retailers don’t cross the border successfully. And the second reason is all these so called differences between Americans, and Canadians in particular do not really exist. So I think that was the point of my story. Or what I wanted to say, in the reasons that Nordstrom has left the market are also being mischaracterized, I believe, there’s no doubt that they should have never opened free stores in the Toronto GTA. That was a major mistake. I think the other thing that people are not taking note of, but if they go back and Google it, they’ll see it is that the minute that Nordstrom announced that they were coming into the market, both Holt Renfrew and Harry Rosen embarked on a multimillion dollar program to upgrade their facilities and their capabilities. And I don’t think that the people at Nordstrom saw that coming. They underestimated two of their key competitors. They also under estimated from my standpoint, the amount of foreign competitors that would have come in over the next seven years, all of these foreign competitors are coming in are nibbling away at the north at the market segment that Nordstroms is targeting. So I think that has a lot to do with it. COVID restriction certainly hurt. And lastly, there was a big decline of you know, in foreign tourism. And I think that that affected Nordstroms because a lot of foreign tourists, like from Japan had never been into a Nordstrom store. We’re aware of it. So they added to it. But once the COVID crackdown came in, they couldn’t go there. So basically, Nordstrom failed, for a whole reason, for a whole number of reasons, kind of like the alignment of the planets. But I don’t think it had anything to do with their service levels. Or their pricing. I think it had to do with much bigger problems. And that had to do basically with the competition, including Harry Rosen, Holt, Renfrew, and all of the new foreign retailers coming in the market.
Craig Patterson
And that includes some of the brands that you can find in a Nordstrom store actually opening their own standalone stores.
Randy Harris
Absolutely. Absolutely. I 100% agree with what you just said. And normally then that IQ and the other thing that happened is the incredible upgrading. And I don’t know how to quantify this of the mall Yorkdale over the last five or six years, that really has become a magnet. And when you talk about the luxury market in Canada, I’m beginning to talk about four segments Vancouver, Toronto, particularly down on Bloor Street Yorkdale Mall in and of itself. And then the rest of Canada, whether that be Winnipeg or Edmonton or anything, and I’m convinced that in the end, that’s a pie that’s going to be divided into four pieces. I believe that Yorkville indeed, maybe by the end of next year will do the same amount of business in the luxury market, that downtown Toronto or even Vancouver’s done and I know nobody has said that. But I truthfully believe it with what they’re doing in terms of Yorkdale being such a draw for the luxury shopping consumer that it’s a tremendous threat to the downtown core in Toronto.
Craig Patterson
Well, I, I absolutely agree with that. I mean, that’s my position right at the moment out the Montreal and I know Montreal and Vancouver and 2024 are going to be getting these shopping centers that both are going to have luxury stores. You’ve got Royal Mountain Montreal, which is going to compete with downtown Royal Mount to be in the middle of the island. You’re going to Oak Ridge center in Vancouver which is on the west side. So it’s sort of the inner suburbs of the city but it is removed from the downtown core. You would probably would see something like what we’re seeing in Toronto right now in terms of that Yorkdale dominance versus downtown.
Randy Harris
It depends on who goes in there. I’m not sure that in the end, that either mall expands to luxury zones, expensive luxury area in those cities. It makes it more convenient for shoppers to go there. But whether it actually adds plus business, I’m not sure at this point. And I don’t think anybody really does. I think they hope it adds plus business. But I’m not sure it just makes it easier for those people to go shopping. And that’s what I thought Yorkdale was going to do for a while. I thought it was going to take away from downtown, slowly. But now I believe that it’s actually becoming such a destination that will add plus business in terms of expanding the market.
Craig Patterson
So there’ll be more high end retail sales in the Toronto market versus there being two nodes of luxury that are competing with each other.
Randy Harris
Yes, absolutely. Very interesting. Now, do I have any? Do I have any data? I mean, I’m the guy who’s preaching through this whole thing. You got to have data? The answer is I don’t have data. It’s just a supposition. Based on what I’m seeing happening at Yorkdale Mall and you’re article last week. I think it was last week early this week about sales in New York. Jamal just reinforced my thinking on that.
Craig Patterson
It is a threat. I live in the YorkVille area in the downtown core of Toronto and even though we are getting these luxury stores, I do know that if the stores are in, you know on Bloor Street or on Yorkville Avenue. And they’re also say at Yorkdale very often Yorkdale stores gonna be doing higher sales, even if it’s in Holt Renfrew as a concession. Not always.
Randy Harris
Yes. And that always like, it’s interesting. It’ll be interesting to watch the dynamic going on. You know, it’ll be interesting to see and you won’t be able to share it with me, but I’m sure you’ll be able to find out when a company or a retailer has a store on Bloor Street and then they open something in Yorkdale Mall does that affect their sales down on Bloor Street? That to me would be one of the most interesting things to learn about retailing now.
Craig Patterson
Oh, goodness. Yeah. Yeah, it’s I mean, we’ve got the luxury side of things. What about the off price, I mean, we’ve got Canada still have Saks OFF 5TH at least for now. And we’ll talk about Saks OFF 5TH without you after let’s talk about you but we’ve got the off price you got Winners, Marshalls, which are part of TJX group we’ve got Saks OFF 5TH, currently, Nordstrom Rack is still operating. But it’s been cleared out basically at the moment here and a few others out there too. But any insight into the you know, the lower price clothing that most Canadians are probably buying at this point
Randy Harris
That segment continues to grow. Much like the fast fashion segment. So when you’re talking about our price, you have to also do a plus the fast fashion because in a sense, their pricing, if similar to their product is different. But they’re at the low and relatively low end of the market, meaning they’re above Walmart and Giant Tiger. But below The Bay in most cases,
Craig Patterson
That makes sense to me. And speaking of I mean Walmart them, these are successful retailers, you’ve got Walmart in Canada, Costco is doing just a bang up business. I think we have more Costco stores per person in Canada, then there is the United States.
Randy Harris
Yes, there’s 100 of them, and they’re doing wonderful. And Costco, probably not in 2003. But in 2024 will be one of the 10 largest clothing retailers in Canada. It’s getting very close. Yes. Out of sight out of mind. You don’t think about it as a clothing retailer, but they do the tonnage I’ll tell you.
Craig Patterson
And then that includes the Kirkland brand, which is an in house brand for Costco, as well as I think they do have some other brands in there that they’ll just bring in random.
Randy Harris
They’re getting more brands all the time because the manufacturers are looking for outlets to sell their product in used to be they’d hold their nose. And they wouldn’t sell to people like Costco but that’s changing. So it’s important that they develop additional channels of distribution, if you’re an apparel manufacturer, so you open your direct to consumer stores you go more online, you go every channel you can to try and build up your business.
Craig Patterson
We’ve got some really successful outlet malls This is certainly something that the United States has seen for years but here in Canada now with a Toronto Premium Outlets. Almost at the latest brand I think opening will take a Bottega Veneta we’ve got many of the roles luxury brands at that mall. And we’ve got a few other of these outlet malls in other parts of Canada, the one in Toronto is by far the most luxury heavy, but nevertheless, we’ve got a few, each major city in Canada seems to have at least one of them.
Randy Harris
And that is growing. And that’s why I find it found it surprising when somebody said the off price business in Canada is going down. And I’d say, Oh, contrary, it’s actually growing, when you look at the numbers for TJX, for Canada, and then you look at what’s happening in some of these outlet malls. And some of the higher end brands are going in there off price is a growing segment of the Canadian market, much like it is in the United States. And one of the things that’s interesting is that, as you know, Canadians, especially in the mid 90s, late 90s, really flocked to the United States to go to what I would call off price or factory outlet malls. There’s not the need to do that anymore. Because there are factory outlet malls now in Canada, and so that cross border traffic to go shopping gets dramatically declined. Because of that.
Craig Patterson
That makes sense. I mean, we’ve got people traveling, and they’re probably traveling to have more experiences anyways. Now if we get the shopping here, in Canada, the same brands.
Randy Harris
So the going back to one thing it’s going to help the luxury market, which I know that you’re very interested in personally, is the return of full stop of tourism. And I mean tourism from the Orient, if you will, that’s still not anywhere near where it was pre COVID. And until that it’s going to act as a, I call it an anchor and the growth of that particular segment of the market. So in two years, that won’t be an issue, it’s going to take probably a year to two years to get tourism back to the level that it was pre COVID.
Craig Patterson
That makes a lot of sense. And I think they’re showing that to the Asian market, particularly Chinese is responsible for a very significant amount of spending on luxury brands, I think the estimates could be as high as 50%. At this point.
Randy Harris
The inherent problem, though, for Canadian luxury retailers, is the boom in luxury apparel retailing within Canada itself, that everybody is opening up stores. Louis Vuitton opens one store every week in China. And so the availability of luxury brands has just exploded within China. That saying that I don’t understand yet. Is the difference in the pricing. So a Louis Vuitton first sold and Louis Vuitton Beijing is that cheaper or more expensive than a Louis Vuitton bag sold in Yorkdale? I don’t know the answer to that.
Craig Patterson
Yeah, that’d be something interesting to look into. I’ve been told that some of the pricing and China’s been competitive enough that people would not be compelled to go elsewhere. Because that’s why we saw lineups. And you know, the short sale is a in Paris, that will be Louis Vuitton or in London. I mean, the pricing, depending on the currency fluctuations was something to consider. But it sounds like some of the brands just from what I’m hearing anecdotally are trying to have things competitively priced in China to drive sales, especially as people aren’t traveling. And as the market grows. And you know, many people in China don’t have passports in terms of being able to travel.
Randy Harris
Yeah, that’s true, by the way. Another thought is I’ve talked to a couple of luxury retailers, not in the last year, but before that. And they they don’t talk nearly as much about Canada, as they do Toronto and Vancouver. So when they’re doing their strategic planning, they realize that there’s a whole part of Canada that they’re not interested in at all. So they tend to focus on what’s going on only in Toronto, in Vancouver. And I think that that makes a hell of a lot of sense.
Craig Patterson
Those are the markets that seem to have a lot of luxury spending. It is interesting to be watching the Royalmount project in Montreal, which again, I’ve got all your plan that I wasn’t allowed to announce all the tenants but a lot of the retailers so the high end ones you see at Yorkdale are also on the floor plan for Royalmount Montreal.
Randy Harris
It’s long overdue, I think. So I’m glad to see that it’s being done. So it was quite a nice article, though. I think that I read about that. And then I read you referred in the article to a report that had been done and I went and looked at that. So yeah, I’ve got a pretty good handle on what you’re trying to do there.
Craig Patterson
I think it’s gonna be fascinating and same thing with OakRidge in Vancouver and it’s a little bit different because the Vancouver market already has a pretty strong luxury spending component to it. But with that now expanding or an eroding of market share downtown because the OakRidge this is going to be I think fascinating to watch in 2024 because that’s when these two projects gonna be coming online and the consumers can start shopping on these shopping malls?
Randy Harris
And again, the question is, do these two shopping malls, add business? Or do they subtract business? Meaning from the current luxury areas? And we won’t know for a while?
Craig Patterson
Yeah, my guess is it’s going to subtract a little bit. But that’s that’s just my gut, maybe more so from the Montreal market. I mean, Montreal does have wealthy people. The question is, where do they shop? Are they going to Florida, New York City, Paris. I mean, there’s, you know, that’s a thing to consider as well.
Randy Harris
I’ve always thought that there’s just too much spending down in Boca Raton or Paris, then there is in Montreal itself. But again, I have no data to backup that option.
Craig Patterson
No, no, no. One luxury retailer that came into Canada in 2016 was Saks 5TH Avenue. For those global I should say, for those unfamiliar, I’m sure everyone listening here would be but it’s a New York City based, you know, large format retailer, now owned by the Hudson’s Bay Company, interestingly enough, but to open three full line stores in Canada. I don’t think they’re doing so well. You had some predictions and some reports, basically, that Saks was probably going to be at least in your opinion, leaving Canada, do you wanna go into that a little bit more as a discussion?
Randy Harris
Again, I don’t, I believe that in my heart, I just don’t see how they could justify it. Now it could be justifiable, because of the rents that they might or might not be paying, which could make it a little easier. But I’ve just never seen them be a major player in the market. And I also think they came in again, under estimating what Holt Renfrew was going to do. And I think that Holt Renfrew, has really stymied any possible growth that they might have. So I think their best thing to do is to just close it up and get rid of it, they still don’t have an Ecommerce site. In Canada, you have to order I believe, via the US site. And I just don’t see him making the commitment to Canada that they need to excel. They’ve also got an economies of scale problem, and that is they don’t have enough storage to really justify a major marketing campaign.
Craig Patterson
And the plan had been for Saks 5TH Avenue to open I think up to 10 of those full size stores in Canada, I’m not talking about Saks OFF 5TH, for those unfamiliar, it’s a completely different division. It just shares a similar name is corrupted by the Hudson’s Bay Company itself. So where my understanding comes from, but in terms of these large Saks 5TH Avenue stores, I mean, I don’t know if you’ve ever actually gone on the record or gone public saying this, but I had been told in 2021, that in early 2022, the Calgary store was supposed to have been shut down. And I didn’t report on this. I was waiting for more signs of it to happen. And lo and behold, we’re here today it’s April of 2023. And that store is still open, but I was in there a few months ago and there wasn’t a lot of stuff in there wasn’t a very good store. Yeah,
Randy Harris
I just think there to change. days are numbered in Canada. How soon know pulls a plug, I don’t know. But I’m, I’m certainly it will be gone within a couple of years, if not sooner.
Craig Patterson
I think that would be sad. But you know, we got two standalone stores like I mentioned, Chinook Centre or CF Chinook Centre of Calgary, there’s one of the CF Sherway gardens in Toronto. There’s also a Saks 5TH Avenue, which is kind of awkwardly contained within the large Hudson’s Bay store downtown Toronto is the Simpsons many years ago, a big department store. But now we’ve got the Saks Fifth Avenue thrown in there, it’s gonna be interesting to see what happens if that store were to close in terms of how the space would be utilized.
Randy Harris
I completely agree with you. And maybe they ought to tear the whole building down and put up 105 storey apartment building, they might get a better return on their money.
Craig Patterson
That seems to be the Toronto way tear it down and build something really tall. I mean, it’s heritage protected. I would hope that God that would never happen. But I did see some proposals for a tower on the site. This is a number of years ago, and I don’t think it’s going to happen. But really, yeah, I mean, they would look to do something to somehow within the structural support of the current building that’s there because the the corner of Queen and Yong Street I believe was built in 1898. So it is a really old building, it was you know, expanded in phases to almost a million square feet in terms of the department store itself. But nevertheless, I mean, engineers have their thing to be able to figure things out maybe there will be a tall building at the back of the Hudson space or at some point
Randy Harris
Will be poorly go I need to thank you for giving me this opportunity to vent. And I’d like to encourage and this is my commercial for anybody that’s interested in what I have to say to our to subscribe to our monthly newsletter called Canadian Apparel Insights. And you can subscribe via our website trendexna.com.
Craig Patterson
Excellent, excellent. We’ll include the show notes as well. We’ll have a link in there for those that are coming to this podcast through our website. And again for those that are just coming into our Podcast channels. Definitely seek this out if you’re interested because it’s it’s really informative stuff you, Randy, you send us these reports regularly, I get them in my email and they’re always extremely informative.
Randy Harris
Thank you. And I really appreciate working with Mario. He’s a peach. We get along very well. He’s very astute. He has good comments. But more importantly, he writes up what we I say to him perfectly. I really liked the way he summarizes what I say. It makes me look good.
Craig Patterson
Thank you so much for joining us today. This is Randy Harris. He’s the president and founder of Trendex North America. Thank you so much for your insights here. You’re always telling us all kinds of interesting stuff. Very informative. Thank you, Randy, for joining us.
Randy Harris
Thank you again for having me, Craig.
Craig Patterson
And thank you, everyone for listening today on the retail insider podcast. I’m your host, Craig Patterson. I’m the founder, CEO and publisher of Retail Insider Media Limited, be sure to subscribe to our podcast and we’ve also got a video series which includes my face on it as well as guests. So definitely check that out here as well. Thank you so much, everyone. Take care and bye for now.
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