As economic uncertainty and ongoing trade tensions weigh on consumers, Canadian online retail sales saw a 3% YoY decline —compared to 3% growth in Q1 2024, according to Q1 Canadian retail insights from Salesforce’s 2025 Shopping Index, which analyzes activity from over 1.5 billion global shoppers across 67+ countries.
Retailers also witnessed a decline in average order value in Q1 2025 at $99.25, down 4% from $103.82 in Q1 2024, said Salesforce.
“The Q1 2025 retail results paint a picture of a cautious Canadian consumer. High prices, economic uncertainty, and shifting priorities are all contributing to a more deliberate approach to online shopping. Canadian consumers are increasingly seeking out discounts and prioritizing value, while retailers are responding with targeted promotions and an emphasis on mobile-friendly experiences,” said Caila Schwartz, Director of Consumer Insights and Strategy for Retail and Consumer Goods at Salesforce.
Q1 Shopping Index Salesforce| Canadian Data
- With economic uncertainties and geopolitical climates impacting retail, Canadians are cautious and tightening their purse strings.
- Digital commerce sales declined 3% YoY (compared to 3% growth in Q1 2024), the Shopping Index shows:
- a decline in per-visit average spend, sitting at $2.57 (down 3% from $2.64 in Q1 2024)
- a drop in conversion rate to 1.9% (down from 2.3% last quarter). A slight decrease of 2% from Q1 2024.
- Canadian traffic was stagnant at 0% in the first quarter, with computers seeing a 15% growth while mobile declined by 4%.
- Overall order volumes decreased by 5% in Canada, owing to computers seeing a decrease of 5% and mobile orders growing by 6%.
- The rate of online traffic using site search was at 7% in the first quarter, accounting for 17% of all orders in Canada.
- Mobile remains the biggest traffic driver and preferred channel for placing orders in Canada
- Mobile drove 70% of all online traffic and 66% of all online orders in Q1 2025. The rate of orders coming from mobile devices continues to grow, with Q1 mobile orders growing 5% over the same period in 2024.
- The average discount rate for Canada in the first quarter was 16%, which is a slight increase from the 15% seen during this time period last year.
- The average order value (AOV) in Q1 2025 is $99.25, down 4% from $103.82 in Q1 2024.
- The Canadian cart abandonment rate remained steady YoY
- Desktop continues to lead when it comes to actually clicking the buy button, with a 80% cart abandonment rate versus 88% on mobile.
- Work still remains on mobile to remove friction through the checkout funnel.
- The share of Canadian traffic referred by social media was 10% in the first quarter, with 12% of mobile traffic being referred from social channels.
Schwartz said “we are still seeing the same type of 2024 consumer: cautious, pulling back on their spend, focusing on essentials.”
“We saw specifically in Canada, if we looked at the data, sales fell by 3% in Q1. But if we looked at the data over a five-quarter basis—well, technically nine quarters—on a year-over-year basis, sales have been kind of up and down between 3% and -3% over that time period. So we’re kind of in this same pattern of consumers really being cautious,” she said of the Salesforce data.
“We saw a decline in order volumes—consumers didn’t place more purchases than last year. It was about 5% down in Q1. But we also saw a decline in the per-visit spend, which is really interesting. It says to me that not only did we see that sales decline and order volume decline, but we also saw a pullback in how much they were spending per visit, which really corroborates that initial assumption: that it’s a rebalancing and a focus on essentials.”
Schwartz said the tariff uncertainty definitely doesn’t help put the consumer’s mind at ease.
“We’re paying attention very closely right now to see what’s happening. We’re still seeing spend, we’re still seeing activity, so we haven’t seen a dramatic drop-off. I think the consumer is going to be very sensitive to price right now—they have been for a long time. So any dramatic increase in prices over the next three to six months is really going to bring a lot more challenges from the consumer’s perspective. But it’s hard to know exactly what’s going to happen right now, given that things seem to be changing on a day-to-day basis,” she said.
“But I think if this continues, what we can expect to see is that same type of cautious consumer—probably some more pullback, definitely a refocusing again on essentials, and just a consumer that’s in a wait-and-see type of approach.”
Schwartz said we’ve seen a decline in consumer sentiment since 2022, when we really started to see inflation ramp up.
“We’ve been polling this every year now for the last few years, asking consumers how they feel about the economy or their own personal financial situation. What we’ve seen is that the consumer is feeling stretched. Last year, actually for the first time, we saw consumers say they were putting their money into savings, investing, and paying down debt—versus prioritizing physical goods or buying experiences, which really says to us that the consumer is trying to get their financial house in order—they’re really trying to buckle down,” she added.
Schwartz said what’s also interesting is how consumers are using mobile devices.
“We saw mobile usage by Canadians in terms of traffic—the rate of traffic coming to e-commerce sites from mobile—I would say is probably at its peak. We haven’t seen much movement in that metric over the last several quarters. But what is growing is the rate of orders coming from mobile devices, which is really interesting,” she explained.
“I think it says two things: one, the mobile buying experience is getting better—whether that’s through consolidated checkout experiences, more checkout or payment options, or better mobile carts overall. There’s a greater willingness and comfort on the part of the consumer to transact—especially for larger purchases—using their mobile devices.
That’s a very interesting one to see play out. My sense is we’ll still continue to see it grow, but we’re probably getting to the point where mobile usage and mobile saturation or penetration is coming to its peak—which is very cool from more of a technology perspective.”
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