Canadian retailers are heading into Q4 with a clear warning from shoppers: money is tight, and it will be spent carefully. This month’s holiday outlooks from the big consulting firms point to the lowest projected seasonal spend in years, driven by tariff worries and a stubborn sense that everything costs more.
But gifting isn’t disappearing. It’s changing shape. Shoppers are buying earlier, favouring value, leaning toward Canadian-made goods, and choosing simpler ways to cover long recipient lists. For retailers, the question isn’t whether people will give gifts this December. It’s which formats, price points and sourcing stories will win the smaller wallet.
Where the holiday gift budget is going in 2026
When budgets shrink, shoppers don’t stop giving. They look for ready-made formats that cover several people without hours of browsing. A pre-assembled Christmas gift basket is a good example: one purchase, a fixed price, and no guesswork about whether the recipient will like it. That’s exactly the kind of low-effort, predictable gifting that tends to hold up when households tighten spending.
The numbers explain why. Deloitte’s 2026 holiday outlook projects overall Canadian holiday spending will fall 14% to $1,305, down from $1,521 in 2025, the lowest since the survey began. Entertaining is expected to drop 22% and experiences 20%.
Gifts and gift cards fare better, but still slip about 5%, according to Deloitte’s holiday retail outlook. Price anxiety is the backdrop: 83% of respondents are concerned about tariffs raising prices, and 79% expect higher holiday prices, up from 70% last year.
Earlier shopping, earlier decisions
The calendar is moving. Accenture’s 20th annual holiday survey found that 81% of Canadian shoppers plan to start before Black Friday and Cyber Monday, compared with 47% in 2025. Average gift spending is about C$717, down nearly 4%, and 44% plan to buy at mass merchants or warehouse clubs.
Deloitte adds that 51% of holiday budgets will be spent by the end of Black Friday weekend, and 39% of shoppers plan to use AI tools in their holiday shopping, up from 25% last year. Put those together and the implication is blunt. A gifting assortment that goes live in December is already late.
Retailers that read the signal from Accenture’s holiday survey will merchandise bundles in October, not after Remembrance Day, and make sure product pages are clear enough for an AI assistant to summarize accurately.
Buy-Canadian and the tariff effect on gifting
Tariffs have changed what “value” means. PwC data cited by eMarketer shows 72% of Canadian shoppers are looking for alternatives to US-made products, and only about 10% plan cross-border shopping this season, half the share in 2024.
That shift favours domestic suppliers and regional gifting businesses with short supply chains. The renewed Buy Canadian movement is already reshaping how retailers promote locally made products. A local sourcing story used to be a nice extra. This year it’s a purchase driver, and it also protects against the price swings that come with imported inputs.
What curated gifting means for retailers
Here’s the position worth taking: bundles beat single SKUs this year. A shopper with a shrinking budget and a long list wants fewer decisions, not more. Curated sets at clear price points, such as under $50 and under $100, make that choice easy and lift basket size without feeling like an upsell.
Three practical moves follow:
- Build tiered bundles around the price points shoppers actually set for themselves, and show them early.
- Offer multi-recipient and corporate options with firm shipping cut-offs, since time-pressed buyers will pay to avoid risk.
- Tell the local sourcing story plainly, with where products are made and by whom, rather than relying on vague “artisan” language.
Don’t read the forecasts as permission to under-stock. NerdWallet reported that Canadians spent an average of $828 on holiday gifts in 2025, about $120 above what they’d planned. Surveys capture intentions, and shoppers have a habit of overspending once the season gets going. Different surveys use different methods, so the dollar figures above shouldn’t be compared directly. The direction of travel is what matters.
Looking ahead
Holiday budgets are smaller, but the money hasn’t left the market. It’s moving toward retailers that make gifting simple, early and local. The ones still planning a December push for a December wallet will find much of it already spent.
