Retail Insider’s Canadian Retail Monitor: October 2026 — Retail Spending Rebounds, but Growth Remains Uneven

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Canadian retail sales rebounded in August 2026, rising 1.2% to $74.6 billion as all nine major retail subsectors recorded monthly gains, according to Statistics Canada. The improvement followed a July decline and was accompanied by a 1.2% increase in inflation-adjusted sales volumes, providing an encouraging indication of retail purchasing activity heading into the fall.

The annual figures tell a more complicated story. Retail sales increased 5.4% in current dollars compared with August 2025, while chained-dollar sales volumes rose 1.8%, reflecting a considerably smaller increase in inflation-adjusted retail activity.

The October edition of Retail Insider’s Canadian Retail Monitor examines retail trade, wholesale distribution, consumer prices and the products Canadians are purchasing. The latest reports cover August retail and wholesale trade, July retail commodity sales and September inflation, providing a broad assessment of the Canadian retail economy as businesses prepare for the final quarter of the year.

Canadian Retail Dashboard

Indicator Latest reading Reference period
Total retail sales $74.6 billion, +1.2% monthly August 2026
Retail sales, annual change +5.4% August 2026
Retail sales volume, chained dollars +1.2% monthly; +1.8% annually August 2026
Core retail sales +1.1% monthly August 2026
Retail e-commerce $5.65 billion, +15.3% annually August 2026
E-commerce share 7.6% of total retail sales August 2026
Wholesale trade $91.6 billion, −1.6% monthly August 2026
Retail commodity sales $77.8 billion, +5.0% annually July 2026
Consumer Price Index +3.1% annually September 2026
Grocery inflation +1.7% annually September 2026
Advance retail sales estimate +0.7% monthly, preliminary September 2026

Source: Statistics Canada. Retail and wholesale trade figures are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise indicated. Retail commodity figures are unadjusted. The wholesale headline excludes petroleum-related products and oilseed and grain. The September retail estimate is preliminary.

Statistics Canada’s August Retail Trade report shows Canadian retailers generated $74.57 billion in sales, compared with a revised $73.69 billion in July. The 1.2% increase followed a 0.7% decline in July, when sales had fallen across eight of the nine major retail subsectors.

Retail Sales Rebound After July Decline

The improvement was broad, with every major subsector recording a monthly increase. Motor vehicle dealers, food and beverage retailers, health and personal care businesses, general merchandise stores and home-related retailers all contributed to the recovery.

Core retail sales, excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers as well as gasoline stations and fuel vendors, increased 1.1% following a 0.7% decline in July. The improvement indicates that the recovery extended beyond the automotive and fuel categories.

What Drove Canada’s August Retail Growth?

Ontario and British Columbia made important contributions to the national increase, while several major retail categories recovered from weaker July results. Health and personal care retailers continued a prolonged period of growth, and general merchandise stores recorded higher sales following a monthly decline.

Furniture, home furnishings, electronics and appliance retailers posted one of the stronger monthly percentage gains, increasing 2.3%. However, the category remained below its sales level from a year earlier, illustrating the difference between a short-term rebound and sustained annual growth.

The latest figures provide evidence of improved monthly retail activity, although they do not establish that consumer demand has strengthened equally across retailers, markets or merchandise categories.

Price vs. Volume: Where Growth Is Real

Retail sales measured in chained dollars increased 1.2% in August, matching the nominal monthly growth rate. This shows that inflation-adjusted retail activity improved alongside reported sales revenue.

Annual comparisons are less robust. Current-dollar sales increased 5.4%, while chained-dollar sales volumes rose 1.8%, indicating that the growth in retail spending substantially exceeded the increase in inflation-adjusted activity.

Statistics Canada’s separate industry-level constant-price series showed annual growth of 2.0% for total retail trade. The two inflation-adjusted measures use different methodologies and should not be treated as identical, although both point to considerably more modest annual growth than the nominal sales figure.

For retailers, the distinction is commercially important. Revenue growth does not necessarily indicate equivalent increases in merchandise quantities, customer traffic or profitability, particularly when prices and product mix are changing.

Retail Sector Pulse

Health and Beauty Continues to Lead

Health and personal care retailers remained among Canada’s strongest major retail categories in August, generating $6.80 billion in sales. Revenue increased 1.6% from July and 13.1% compared with August 2025, marking the sector’s tenth consecutive monthly increase.

Sales at constant prices increased 10.6% annually, confirming substantial inflation-adjusted growth. The performance stands out against the much smaller annual volume increases recorded across total retail trade.

The category includes pharmacies and other health and personal care retailers, businesses that occupy a significant presence in shopping centres, neighbourhood plazas and street-front retail districts. Continued growth in this segment is relevant for landlords assessing tenant demand and for retailers competing in health, wellness and personal care merchandise.

Apparel and Fashion Shows Uneven Growth

Clothing, footwear, jewellery, luggage and leather goods retailers generated $4.12 billion in August sales, increasing 0.4% from July and 3.3% annually. At constant prices, sales increased 6.2% compared with August 2025, indicating stronger inflation-adjusted activity than the nominal revenue figures suggest.

Clothing and clothing accessories retailers recorded $3.21 billion in sales, up 2.8% annually. Jewellery, luggage and leather goods retailers performed more strongly in current dollars, reporting a 13.6% increase to approximately $506 million.

Footwear retailers presented a different picture. Their nominal sales declined 4.0% annually, while constant-price sales increased 10.2%, a substantial divergence that warrants careful interpretation.

The figures do not establish whether individual footwear retailers sold more pairs of shoes, increased discounting or changed their merchandise mix. They do show that nominal revenue and inflation-adjusted activity moved in opposite directions, complicating assessments based solely on reported sales dollars.

For Canadian fashion retailers, the broader category’s annual performance suggests continued consumer purchasing activity, although growth is uneven across merchandise segments. The data do not measure individual retailers’ margins or comparable-store sales.

General Merchandise Maintains Momentum

General merchandise retailers generated $11.09 billion in August sales, increasing 1.0% from July and 6.0% annually. The monthly improvement followed a 1.7% decline in July, while annual sales at constant prices increased 6.8%.

The inflation-adjusted increase was stronger than the category’s nominal growth, placing general merchandise among the better-performing major retail sectors. The results cover a broad range of store formats, including department stores and other general merchandise retailers.

The sector’s performance is relevant to Canadian shopping centres and power centres, where general merchandise businesses remain important traffic-generating tenants. However, the national figures cannot establish whether particular retailers or store formats are outperforming their competitors.

Grocery Sales Improve as Volumes Remain Weak

Food and beverage retailers generated $13.37 billion in August sales, increasing 1.1% from July but only 0.8% annually. The monthly increase was the sector’s first in three months, with all four major store categories reporting gains.

Supermarkets and other grocery retailers recorded $9.53 billion in sales, increasing 1.1% monthly and 0.7% annually. Beer, wine and liquor retailers posted a 1.4% monthly increase, while specialty food retailers gained 0.5%.

The inflation-adjusted figures reveal a weaker annual performance. Food and beverage retail sales at constant prices declined 1.8%, including a 2.0% decrease among supermarkets and other grocery retailers.

These results indicate that modest nominal sales growth has coincided with declining inflation-adjusted activity over the past year. The figures are particularly relevant as grocery affordability continues to influence household spending, even though the annual rate of grocery price inflation has slowed.

Home Retail and Electronics Face Continued Pressure

Furniture, home furnishings, electronics and appliance retailers recorded $3.46 billion in August sales, increasing 2.3% from July. Despite the monthly recovery, sales remained 2.1% below August 2025.

Electronics and appliance retailers continued to experience weaker annual results, with nominal sales declining 6.8% to $1.49 billion. Sales at constant prices fell 4.4%, indicating that the weakness extended beyond changes in selling prices.

Furniture retailers performed somewhat better, recording annual revenue growth of 2.2%, while floor covering, window treatment and other home furnishing retailers increased 1.3%. The differences suggest that home-related retail categories are experiencing varying levels of demand.

Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers recorded a 1.6% monthly increase to $4.05 billion, with annual sales rising 2.7%. However, constant-price sales declined 0.8% annually, showing that inflation-adjusted activity remained weaker than the nominal results.

Other Major Retail Categories

Motor vehicle and parts dealers generated $19.96 billion in August sales, increasing 1.2% monthly and 2.7% annually. New car dealers led the monthly increase, with sales rising 1.5% to $15.78 billion, while automotive parts, accessories and tire retailers gained 1.4%.

Used car dealers recorded a 0.5% monthly decline. The broader motor vehicle retail category reported annual constant-price sales growth of 2.6%, indicating modest inflation-adjusted expansion.

Gasoline stations and fuel vendors recorded $7.42 billion in August sales, increasing 1.7% monthly and 22.6% annually. However, constant-price sales declined 0.5% during August and 8.8% annually, illustrating how fuel prices can substantially influence reported retail revenue.

Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, book and miscellaneous retailers generated $4.29 billion in August sales, increasing 0.3% monthly and 5.1% annually. Constant-price sales increased 3.2% over the year, although results differed among the category’s individual retail formats.

Canadian Retail Momentum

Market Segment Signals: Retail Winners and Laggards

The August figures show a retail market in which category performance remains uneven despite the broad monthly recovery. Health and personal care retailers, general merchandise stores and selected fashion-related categories recorded comparatively strong annual growth, while electronics and several home-related businesses continued to face weaker results.

Food and beverage retailing illustrates another challenge. Although nominal sales increased modestly, annual constant-price sales declined, showing that reported revenue growth can conceal weaker inflation-adjusted activity.

The differences matter for retailers evaluating store performance, assortment decisions and inventory requirements. National growth rates provide useful context, but merchandise category and regional conditions can be considerably more important to individual businesses.

Regional Retail Signals

Ontario and British Columbia contributed substantially to the national retail recovery in August, while Quebec recorded only modest monthly growth and Alberta experienced a small decline.

Province August sales Monthly change
Ontario $28.54 billion +2.2%
Quebec $16.22 billion +0.2%
British Columbia $9.97 billion +2.1%
Alberta $9.65 billion −0.1%
Manitoba — +1.6%
Saskatchewan — +1.1%
Nova Scotia — +0.6%
New Brunswick — −0.6%
Prince Edward Island — −0.6%
Newfoundland and Labrador — −0.6%

Source: Statistics Canada, August 2026 Retail Trade Survey. Monthly changes are seasonally adjusted.

Ontario generated $28.54 billion in retail sales, increasing 2.2% from July and 6.4% annually. The Toronto census metropolitan area recorded a particularly strong 4.0% monthly increase, with sales reaching $12.96 billion.

British Columbia recorded $9.97 billion in retail sales, increasing 2.1% monthly and 3.7% annually. The Vancouver metropolitan area also posted a 2.1% monthly increase, bringing sales to $4.95 billion.

Quebec’s retail sales increased just 0.2% to $16.22 billion, while Montréal recorded a 0.5% monthly decline. Sales in the Montréal metropolitan area were 0.8% higher than a year earlier, indicating comparatively limited annual growth.

Alberta’s monthly sales declined 0.1% to $9.65 billion, although the province recorded annual growth of 7.6%. The contrast illustrates why monthly and annual performance need to be considered together when assessing regional market conditions.

Manitoba recorded a 1.6% monthly increase, followed by Saskatchewan at 1.1% and Nova Scotia at 0.6%. Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick each recorded monthly declines of 0.6%.

For national retailers and shopping centre landlords, these regional differences provide useful context when assessing individual markets. The figures do not directly measure store traffic, occupancy costs, leasing demand or comparable-store performance.

Wholesale Trade and Inventory Conditions

Canadian wholesale trade weakened during August even as retail sales recovered, according to Statistics Canada’s Wholesale Trade report. Wholesale sales declined 1.6% to $91.6 billion, with decreases in five of seven major subsectors.

The headline wholesale measure excludes petroleum, petroleum products and other hydrocarbons, as well as oilseed and grain. Wholesale sales remained 7.2% higher than a year earlier, although inflation-adjusted wholesale activity declined 1.8% during August.

Motor vehicle and parts wholesaling fell 3.8% to $15.08 billion, following six consecutive monthly increases. Textile, clothing and footwear wholesaling declined 12.7%, while food, beverage and tobacco wholesaling decreased 2.0%.

Building material and supplies wholesaling was a notable exception, increasing 1.4% to $14.11 billion. The category recorded its eighth consecutive monthly increase, including a 3.3% gain in lumber, millwork, hardware and other building supplies.

Wholesale inventories were essentially unchanged at $141.0 billion, while the inventory-to-sales ratio increased from 1.51 in July to 1.54 in August. Personal and household goods inventories increased 3.5%, including a 6.6% increase in pharmaceutical and pharmacy supplies inventories.

The decline in wholesale activity provides an additional perspective on distribution conditions entering the fall. However, the retail and wholesale surveys measure different transactions, and their opposing monthly movements do not establish that retailers are reducing orders or preparing for weaker consumer demand.

Channel Monitor: E-Commerce and Fulfillment Strategy

Canadian retail e-commerce sales increased 1.1% in August to $5.65 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis. Online sales were 15.3% higher than in August 2025 and represented 7.6% of total retail trade.

The annual growth rate was considerably stronger than the 5.4% increase in overall retail sales, indicating that the online channel continued to expand its share of Canadian retail activity. The figures do not identify which individual retailers or merchandise categories accounted for the growth.

For retailers operating both physical stores and digital platforms, e-commerce remains an important component of the business. Stores can serve customers through in-person shopping, pickup and fulfillment, although the national sales data do not measure the costs or profitability associated with those activities.

The continued expansion of online retailing is also relevant for landlords and shopping centre operators as retailers evaluate how physical locations support broader sales networks. The commercial value of those arrangements depends on factors beyond the national e-commerce growth rate, including store productivity, fulfillment costs and customer behaviour.

What Canadians Were Buying

Commodity Sales Reveal Category Differences

Statistics Canada’s Retail Commodity Survey for July 2026 provides a more detailed view of the products Canadians purchased. Total commodity sales reached $77.8 billion, increasing 5.0% compared with July 2025, with gains reported in 14 of 18 commodity classes.

The survey measures products sold across retail businesses, rather than classifying sales according to a retailer’s principal business activity. Its figures are unadjusted, and the reported percentage changes are annual comparisons, making them distinct from the seasonally adjusted August retail trade figures.

Home health product sales increased 11.1% to $5.78 billion, consistent with the strength observed in health and personal care retailing. Infant care, personal and beauty products increased 4.0% to $1.83 billion.

Clothing sales increased 5.8% to $3.42 billion, while jewellery, watches, luggage and briefcases rose 9.2% to $626 million. Footwear commodity sales increased just 0.3%, indicating much more modest nominal growth in that product category.

Food and beverage commodity sales increased 3.8% to $18.19 billion, including a 4.0% increase in fresh food sales. Fresh meat and poultry sales rose 8.6%, illustrating how spending growth varied within the broader food category.

Automotive and household fuel sales increased 23.7% to $7.30 billion, while home furniture, furnishings, housewares, appliances and electronics sales declined 0.1%. Audio, video and game software recorded an 18.4% annual decrease, one of the more pronounced declines among the surveyed commodity categories.

The product-level figures reinforce the uneven pattern evident in the broader retail data. Health products, clothing and jewellery recorded stronger nominal growth, while several home-related and entertainment categories showed limited increases or declines.

Inflation Adds Context to Retail Performance

Canada’s Consumer Price Index increased 3.1% annually in September, compared with 3.0% in August, according to Statistics Canada’s September CPI report. The acceleration was largely attributable to gasoline prices, which increased 27.8% annually after rising 22.8% in August.

Excluding gasoline, inflation slowed to 2.2% from 2.4% in August. The overall CPI increased 0.1% on an unadjusted monthly basis and 0.4% after seasonal adjustment.

Grocery price inflation slowed to 1.7% annually, down from 2.8% in August and its lowest annual rate since May 2024. Fresh vegetable prices declined 2.9%, while fresh or frozen beef remained 8.7% more expensive than a year earlier.

The moderation in grocery inflation provides some relief from the rapid increases experienced in recent years. However, grocery prices remained 33.0% higher than in September 2020, leaving households with a substantially elevated cost of everyday food purchases.

Shelter costs also remained part of the broader household spending environment, with annual shelter inflation of 1.8% and rent inflation of 2.8%. These expenses can influence how much discretionary income consumers have available, although the CPI figures alone cannot establish changes in individual household budgets.

For retailers, slower inflation should not be confused with falling prices. Consumers may be experiencing smaller annual price increases while continuing to face significant cumulative increases in the cost of necessities.

What to Watch Heading Into the Holiday Season

Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate suggests that retail sales increased another 0.7% in September, following August’s 1.2% gain. The estimate was based on responses received from 58.5% of surveyed companies and remains subject to revision.

The official September retail trade figures are scheduled for release on November 20, 2026. They will provide a clearer indication of whether August’s broad improvement continued into early fall.

Several indicators will be particularly useful to monitor, including inflation-adjusted sales, the performance of discretionary categories, regional differences and the relationship between retail activity and wholesale distribution. These measures can help establish whether stronger reported sales are being accompanied by sustained growth in underlying purchasing activity.

The approaching holiday season will also provide an important test for categories such as apparel, electronics, general merchandise and home-related retailing. The August data establish an improved starting position, but they do not yet provide a reliable forecast of holiday sales performance.

Retail Insider Takeaway

Canada’s retail economy entered the fall with stronger momentum than the July figures had suggested. August’s recovery was broad, with all nine major subsectors recording higher monthly sales and inflation-adjusted retail activity increasing alongside nominal revenue.

The annual results remain uneven. Health and personal care retailers, general merchandise stores and e-commerce recorded comparatively strong growth, while grocery sales volumes and electronics remained under pressure.

The accompanying wholesale and inflation figures add important context. Distribution activity weakened in August, gasoline prices continued to influence headline inflation, and grocery prices remained substantially above their levels five years earlier despite slower annual increases.

For Canadian retailers, landlords and suppliers, the latest data support cautious optimism heading into the final quarter. The next official retail figures will help determine whether the August rebound represents a sustained improvement in consumer purchasing activity or a recovery that remains concentrated in particular categories and markets.

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Craig Patterson
Craig Patterson
Located in Toronto, Craig is the Publisher & CEO of Retail Insider Media Ltd. He is also a retail analyst and consultant, Advisor at the University of Alberta School Centre for Cities and Communities in Edmonton, former lawyer and a public speaker. He has studied the Canadian retail landscape for over 25 years and he holds Bachelor of Commerce and Bachelor of Laws Degrees.

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