The rush to make massive changes to Canada’s permanent immigration levels and the Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) Program have many small business owners’ heads spinning, says the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB).
“And while it is entirely appropriate to turn the immigration dial up or down based on the needs in the labour market, any huge swings hold significant implications for employers, workers and the economy,” said Dan Kelly, President of the CFIB, after the federal government made its immigration announcement on Thursday.
“CFIB is already receiving panicked calls from small business owners, including many who are heartbroken to have to say goodbye to their foreign workers who are already in Canada and whose visas are soon to expire. Others are telling us the new skilled temporary worker prevailing wage level requirements do not reflect the reality of a small business and will mean their firms will struggle to survive. Earlier decisions to reduce access to lower skilled TFWs will also have a major impact on the ability of small firms to build the teams they need to put their products or services to market.
“The dramatic cut to permanent immigration levels too is troubling for Canada’s employers. Yes, the unemployment rate has ticked up in recent months, but there are still 379,000 persistent vacancies in the private sector. And while we are experiencing housing pressures right now, any look at Canada’s demographics reveals we will struggle to maintain a strong workforce without robust immigration.
“These decisions hold huge implications for small business owners, Canadian workers as well as permanent immigrants and temporary workers. A restaurant owner who can’t find a cook ready and willing to work in their community will not have work for the Canadians who may work in the front of the house. We need to rethink many of these recent changes and be ready to turn the dial back up whenever and wherever needed.”
The CFIB is Canada’s largest association of small and medium-sized businesses with 97,000 members across every industry and region .
On Thursday, Marc Miller, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship, announced the 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan: a plan that will pause population growth in the short term to achieve well-managed, sustainable growth in the long term. For the first time ever, the levels plan includes controlled targets for temporary residents, specifically international students and foreign workers, as well as for permanent residents, said the government.
“Immigration is essential to our country’s economic success and growth. As Canada reopened following the pandemic, the needs of businesses were greater than the supply of workers available to support their recovery. We took decisive measures to attract some of the world’s best and brightest to study and work in Canada, and to integrate them into the economy quickly. This meant a faster economic recovery. It also meant that robust immigration helped prevent a recession, while contributing to Canada’s workforce,” said the government in a news release.
“In response to the evolving needs of our country, this transitional levels plan alleviates pressures on housing, infrastructure and social services so that over the long term we can grow our economic and social prosperity through immigration. This unprecedented plan offers a comprehensive approach to welcoming newcomers—one that preserves the integrity of our immigration programs and sets newcomers up for success. Canadians also expect a well-managed immigration system from the Government of Canada.
“The 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan is expected to result in a marginal population decline of 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026 before returning to a population growth of 0.8% in 2027. These forecasts account for today’s announcement of reduced targets across multiple immigration streams over the next two years, as well as expected temporary resident outflows resulting from the 5% target, natural population loss and other factors.
Compared to last year’s plan, the government is:
- reducing from 500,000 permanent residents to 395,000 in 2025
- reducing from 500,000 permanent residents to 380,000 in 2026
- setting a target of 365,000 permanent residents in 2027
“The Levels Plan also supports efforts to reduce temporary resident volumes to five per cent of Canada’s population by the end of 2026. Given temporary resident reduction measures announced in September and this past year, Canada’s temporary population will decrease over the next few years as significantly more temporary residents will transition to being permanent residents or leave Canada compared to new ones arriving.
Specifically, compared to each previous year, we will see Canada’s temporary population decline by
- 445,901 in 2025
- 445,662 in 2026
- a modest increase of 17,439 in 2027.”
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