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Muskoka becomes a thriving hub for female entrepreneurs [Interview]

Poppys Collection storefront in Port Carling, ON

A small town in Muskoka, Port Carling, has become a thriving hub for female entrepreneurs. Kathyrn McNally, founder of Poppy’s Collection, discusses the community, challenges, and future outlook on not just her brand, but other businesses in the area.  

“Almost every single one of these businesses I can see around me are female-owned. We have done a really good job of stopping the trend of huge retailers coming in, and it is a lot of really cool small businesses that are thriving in Port Carling,” says Kathyrn McNally. “Retailers really do support each other. We really believe in Port Carling – if one store is successful, the other stores will also be successful.” 

Poppy’s Collection

McNally started Poppy’s Collection after a desire to offer something that was missing in the community – high-quality children’s clothing. The inspiration behind the brand came from witnessing her mother have difficulties finding good clothing options for her nephew. 

McNally quickly realized that while the market offered plenty of fast-fashion options, it lacked durable, long-lasting products

Female entrepreneur Kathyrn McNally

“Poppy’s Collection started about ten years ago, I was inspired by seeing my mom shop for my nephew, and we were kind of disappointed in the offerings. A lot of the stores were like big massive retailers, and most of the stuff my mom wanted to buy was made in Europe so you could pass it down kid to kid,” says McNally. “I am the youngest of four children, and I wore hand-me-downs from the 70s, 80s, and 90s, and that is how my mom wanted to shop for my nephew and my nieces.” 

Poppy’s Collection carries products for infants, toddlers, children, and women. McNally says she aims to provide children’s apparel that will last from the first child to the last.

After several pop-up shops, McNally says she found the perfect location in Port Carling and opened the store in 2020. The brand carries products for infants, toddlers, children, and women. 

“I opened the doors in 2020, which was an interesting year to start a store in Port Carling because it was the height of the pandemic. We opened our doors in June 2020, and we have been here ever since then. We actually bought the building two years ago because it was a really great location for us, and we really wanted to invest in Poppy’s being there for years to come and continue to have great local businesses.” 

Women supporting women 

McNally says Port Carlings is a thriving hub for female entrepreneurs, with a strong sense of community, mutual respect, and support. 

Rather than competition, the female entrepreneurs understand that the success of one business helps others. McNally says retailers rather support each other in various ways including cross-promotion, sharing advice, or participating in joint events. This allows the storefronts to share resources, ideas, and opportunities; ensuring everyone has a fair chance of growth. 

Inside Poppy’s Collection

“There was a ladies night in July, so we messaged all the other businesses around us to tell them about it and to ask if we can all stay open later so everyone can benefit from it. If one of us stays open, we all stay open, that way we can attract more people to come into our shops. And so, we were able to organize all the businesses to stay open later that night.” 

McNally says they also help each other with joint events and activities, social media promotions by promoting each other’s businesses online, sharing knowledge and resources, providing feedback, collaborating on new initiatives, and having emotional and practical support for working moms. 

People often fail to take female entrepreneurs seriously

While the women of Port Carling have built a supportive community, McNally says they still face challenges as female entrepreneurs. One of the main challenges is the biases women face while trying to establish their businesses.  

“I think female entrepreneurs suffer from not being taken seriously. I think Port Carling is kind of a haven for small businesses, so we don’t really face that too much here, but I do think female entrepreneurs struggle with not being taken seriously and not having the same access to resources that other entrepreneurs have.” 

Other challenges include the responsibility to balance their business with family responsibilities such as taking care of their children. 

Joys and challenges

McNally is experiencing the joy and challenges that come with being a new mother.

“I have more of an appreciation of female entrepreneurs who are mothers, because I think it is just harder to do it all and still kind of be the primary parent. My husband is very hands-on and he is a fantastic father, but I will have to stop my work every two hours to pump to feed my baby because she can’t be on formula due to allergies – I don’t think that is something a man would obviously would ever have to balance.” 

Other female owned brands on the street mentioned by McNally include Snapdragon, Lemonwood, York & Mason, Imala, and Open Court. “These shops are not just businesses; they are the heart of the community.” 

Services going beyond retail

McNally says she evolves her business on what the community is seeking.

“This year, I actually had a focus group of local moms, and I was like, ‘ what do you want Poppy’s to be? What do you wish we didn’t do? What do you want us to do?’” McNally says the insights from this focus group provided her valuable information into what exactly her consumers are looking for, this way, she will be able to stay on-top of new trends and expectations. 

McNally also has been offering in-store activities such as designing hats, story times for kids, manicures for moms at the store, and more. The list of activities creates a family-friendly space that allows McNally to serve the community’s needs beyond retail. 

Going forward, McNally says she will look for new ways to connect with the community. 

“We are not afraid to take risks and we will continue to learn from different experiences,” says McNally. “I think consumers can expect going forward from the brand is more services for the customer. So listening to those people who want somewhere to go with their kids on the weekend and listening to their challenges. So more story times, more events that can really help cater to the community. Consumers can expect us to continue to listen to them about what they need and what they want for future years to come.”

Relevant article: Huntsville Ontario seeing ongoing retail expansion with updated downtown and new mall 

John Elliott closes only Canadian store in Toronto’s Yorkville

John Elliott store at 83 Yorkville Avenue in Toronto on Wednesday, October 10, 2024. Photo: Craig Patterson

Los Angeles-based luxury brand John Elliott, known for its pricey minimalist apparel, has unexpectedly and suddenly closed its first international flagship store at 83 Yorkville Avenue in Toronto. The store opened in the summer of 2023 in a retail space formerly occupied by Off-White.

As of the evening of Wednesday, October 10, 2024, stock had been removed from the store and John Elliott signage had been removed from the building. Several pieces of mail could be seen on the floor of the store, having been pushed under the main glass entry door. The Toronto store is also no longer listed on John Elliott’s website. 

At the same time, a sign on the door blames its closure on a ‘downed computer system’, while on Google the store is listed as being ‘temporarily closed’. 

Sign on the front door of the John Elliott store at 83 Yorkville Avenue in Toronto on Wednesday, October 10, 2024. Photo: Craig Patterson
John Elliott in Yorkville, September 2023, with signage on the building (Image: Dustin Fuhs)

John Elliott’s Brief Toronto Presence

Spanning 2,407 square feet, the Yorkville flagship was designed by architect Stephan Wiemer, following John Elliott’s signature minimalist aesthetic. The store was intended to be a key addition to Toronto’s luxury retail scene, offering a full range of the brand’s high-quality pieces, including Japanese denim, artisanal leather goods, and Italian-produced footwear. 

The store’s clean, modern design featured natural elements such as bamboo plants and stone accents, aiming to create a serene and upscale shopping environment.

Virgil Abloh-founded brand Off-White occupied part of the building from April of 2017 until 2021. 

Looking inside the former John Elliott store at 83 Yorkville Avenue in Toronto on Wednesday, October 10, 2024. Photo: Craig Patterson
Looking inside (zooming in) the former John Elliott store at 83 Yorkville Avenue in Toronto on Wednesday, October 10, 2024. Photo: Craig Patterson

Neighbouring High End Retail 

The immediate area has seen a transformation over the past eight years. Since 2016, luxury brands have opened in the immediate area including Christian Louboutin, Chanel, Brunello Cucinelli, Stone Island and Balenciaga. In 2023, luxury resale store Mine & Yours opened two doors down from John Eliott, and earlier that year US-based Reformation opened its Canadian flagship next door. 

John Elliott continues to operate four stores in the United States, in Los Angeles, New York City, Miami, and Aspen. It appears that a second store in New York City closed since Retail Insider reported on John Eliott’s Toronto opening last year. 

In Canada, John Elliott fashions continue to be carried in retailers such as Holt Renfrew, SSENSE, Kith in Toronto, and Roden Gray in Vancouver. 

Mail piling up at the former John Elliott store at 83 Yorkville Avenue in Toronto on Wednesday, October 10, 2024. Photo: Craig Patterson

Aritzia reports strong Q2 results, lowers full-year forecast

Image: Aritzia

Vancouver-based Aritzia Inc. has reported its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2025, showing strong growth in revenue and profitability. 

Net revenue for the quarter reached C$615.7 million, a 15.3% increase from the same period last year, driven by growth in the U.S. and a successful fall product launch. However, the company issued a cautious forecast for the rest of the year, anticipating a softer performance in its Canadian market.

U.S. Growth Drives Q2 Results

Aritzia’s performance in the U.S. was a standout in the second quarter. Net revenue in the U.S. rose by 23.9% to C$345.4 million, accounting for more than half of the company’s total revenue. The growth was primarily fuelled by the opening of new stores and significant gains in e-commerce. Aritzia’s e-commerce revenue increased by 10.4% to C$190 million, while retail revenue saw a larger 17.6% increase to C$425.6 million. The strong demand for its fall catalog and a well-executed digital marketing strategy helped boost sales across both channels.

“Although we’re navigating a softer consumer environment in Canada, we’re pleased with the positive client response to our fall launch on both sides of the border,” said Jennifer Wong, Aritzia’s Chief Executive Officer, in a statement. 

Aritzia at Vaughan Mills, photo provided by Vaughan Mills.

Profitability and Margin Improvements in Q2 2025

Aritzia’s profitability saw a significant boost in Q2 2025. The company reported a net income of C$18.2 million, reversing a loss of C$6 million in the same quarter last year. Earnings per diluted share rose to 16 cents, compared to a 5-cent loss per share last year. Gross profit margin improved by 520 basis points, reaching 40.2%, up from 35% in Q2 2024. This was largely due to reduced markdowns, inventory management improvements, and lower warehousing costs.

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter surged by 160.7%, reaching C$55.2 million, or 9.0% of net revenue. These results reflect Aritzia’s efforts to control costs while continuing to expand both its physical retail presence and online capabilities.

A-OK at Aritzia Fairview (Image: Aritzia)

Cautious Outlook for Full-Year Fiscal 2025

Despite the strong second-quarter results, Aritzia issued a more cautious outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2025. The company expects third-quarter sales to be between C$675 million and C$700 million, falling below analyst expectations. Full-year revenue guidance was also revised downward, suggesting slower growth ahead as Aritzia faces a more challenging retail environment in Canada.

Looking ahead, Aritzia plans to continue its U.S. expansion, with 12 to 13 new stores expected to open by the end of fiscal 2025. The company is also focused on enhancing its digital presence, including the upcoming launch of a new and improved website.

Other Articles on Aritzia:

Aritzia and the Challenge of Growth [Op-Ed]

Aritzia Expands Store and Introduces 1st Licensed A-OK Cafe 

Aritzia to Double Size of Yorkdale Store in Toronto

From Michelin kitchen to kebab: Award-winning döner kebabs slice their way to Toronto

Photo: I Am Döner
Photo: I Am Döner

British-famed doner shop, I Am Döner, is making its Canadian debut with a brand-new flagship location at the corner of Queen West and Spadina in Toronto on October 17.

Dishing out a reimagined version of the traditional döner kebab, the Toronto outpost will be the award-winning restaurant’s first location in North America. Two additional locations are also confirmed: Yonge/ Sheppard to open in November 2024 and Pickering to open in January 2025, the company said in a news release.

Paul Baron
Paul Baron

“Döner kebab is a classic late-night indulgence,” said I Am Döner founder, Chef Paul Baron. “But a really excellent döner—warm flatbread, fragrant meats, creamy garlic sauce dripping everywhere—is so much more than something to scarf down before heading home to bed. And we’re super pumped to bring our famed shop to Canada, a first for North America!”

The company said notorious for gaining popularity in the UK during the 90s Britpop era, crowds would clamour for late-night döners.

“Seeing the potential, Chef Baron took his Michelin-star-kitchen-training to the can’t-resist phenomenon that is the kebab. In 2016, Chef Baron opened the first I Am Döner in Headingley, UK, marking a new chapter in the döner’s 60-year history in British late-night culture. There are now nine locations in total, spread across the UK and Dubai, with the new Toronto shop being the 10th opening,” said the company.

“The kebab shop quickly turned into a local hot spot, as crowds dared venture over even before heading out for the night. With more than 53 fresh and high-quality ingredients in I Am Döner’s nine award-winning kebabs and bowls, every meal walks the fine line between nutrition and mouth-watering indulgence.”

The brand said Canadian franchisees of the first three Canadian locations, Faisal Husnain and Syed Danish, are gearing up for British invasion beyond just döner.

“British-inspired interior design and a full British and Irish playlist (including the Ramones, the Verve, Blur, and other nostalgic favourites) will leave you feeling like you’re pleasantly stuck in an episode of Skins, the Inbetweeners, or cult fave Heartstopp. Just leave your fake British accent behind when you’re singing your rendition of Wonderwall at Buskers’ Corner, their London Underground-inspired stage to showcase new local talent,” it said.

“While the 18+ crowd stays for a kebab with a side of Johnny Rotten impressions, I Am Döner hasn’t forgotten how desperate parents want a cool place to hang, too. “We are opening a family-first restaurant. If the kids are happy, the adults are happy: we’ve got power sockets for iPads, colouring books, a top-notch kids menu, and every meal comes with free seasonal soft-serve ice cream,” said Husnain

Photo: I Am Döner
Photo: I Am Döner

With its entry into the Canadian market, I Am Döner is thinking outside the takeout box, committing to a focused recycling program and conscious sourcing, with 100% plastic-free packaging and a partnership with Earth Water. As a nod to the döner kebab’s roots and Husnain and Danish’s background, Canadian I Am Döner restaurants will offer a fully halal menu and serve original, fresh beverages with surprise local-twists, added the company

Related articles:

RONA inc. makes RONA its only retail brand in the country

New RONA+ store at Emerald Hills in Sherwood Park, Alberta. Photo: Christa Patterson
New RONA+ store at Emerald Hills in Sherwood Park, Alberta. Photo: Christa Patterson

RONA inc., one of Canada’s leading home improvement retailers operating and servicing some 425 corporate and affiliated dealer stores, has announced the conversion of 18 stores to the RONA+ banner, including the last 16 Réno-Dépôt stores, the RONA L’Entrepôt Québec store and RONA Home & Garden Winnipeg.

This is an important step for the company, which is turning a page in its history by putting an end to the Réno-Dépôt banner to better position RONA as its sole retail brand across the country, said the retailer in a news release.

J.P. Towner
J.P. Towner

“It’s an important milestone in our history that we’re celebrating as we make RONA our only coast-to-coast retail banner a strong brand with 85 years of history. I’m extremely proud of the work of our teams, who brilliantly carried out this major milestone for our company. It’s particularly exciting to be part of the expansion of this homegrown brand,” says J.P. Towner, President and CEO of RONA inc.

RONA+ offers new opportunities to improve the way Canadians shop for their construction and home improvement projects by focusing on renovation, expertise, serving PROs, and products at great prices, said the retailer.

The newly converted RONA+ stores are located in the following areas:

  • Anjou – 10200, rue Renaude-Lapointe, Anjou (QC)
  • Beauport – 225, av. Joseph Casavant, Québec City (QC)
  • Boucherville – 1235, rue Nobel, Boucherville (QC)
  • Brossard – 7410, boul. Taschereau Ouest, Brossard (QC)
  • Candiac – 100, rue de Strasbourg, Candiac (QC)
  • Drummondville – 875, rue Hains, Drummondville (QC)
  • Sainte-Foy – 3131, av. Blaise-Pascal, Québec City (QC)
  • Saint-Hubert – 5035, boul. Cousineau, Saint-Hubert (QC)
  • LaSalle – 2199, rue Lapierre, LaSalle (QC)
  • Laval – 1505, boul. Le Corbusier, Laval (QC)
  • Marché Central – 1011, rue du Marché Central, Montréal (QC)
  • Notre-Dame-de-Grâce – 7277, rue Saint-Jacques, Montréal (QC)
  • Pointe-Claire – 400, boul. Brunswick, Pointe-Claire (QC)
  • Rosemère – 1, boul. Bouthillier, Rosemère (QC)
  • Sainte-Dorothée – 800, aut. Chomedey, rue Desserte Ouest, Laval (QC)
  • Vaudreuil – 3010, boul. de la Gare, Vaudreuil-Dorion (QC)
  • Québec City – 1500, rue Bouvier, Québec City (QC)
  • Winnipeg – 1333, Sargent Avenue, Winnipeg (MB)

The retailer is one of Canada’s leading home improvement retailers headquartered in Boucherville, Quebec. The network operates or services some 425 corporate and affiliated dealer stores under the RONA+, RONA, and Dick’s Lumber banners. With a long and rich history, the brand has supported Canadians in their home improvement and construction projects since 1939.

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Ren’s Pets Partners with Affirm to Offer Flexible Payment Options

Image: Rens Pets

Canadian specialty pet retailer Ren’s Pets has partnered with Affirm, the payment network that empowers consumers and helps merchants drive growth, to offer approved customers the option to use Affirm’s flexible, transparent payment options when shopping on the Ren’s website.

Ren’s carries premium food, treats, and toys for your pet’s best life, plus a wide assortment of professional grooming products.

Larissa Wasyliw
Larissa Wasyliw

“We’re thrilled to bring this payment option to our customers through Affirm,” said Larissa Wasyliw, VP of Ecommerce & Marketing at Ren’s Pets. “Pet parents may find it a good solution for their shopping needs, especially when bringing a new pet home, and our pet professionals will be able to utilize Affirm for their purchases. We’re always looking for ways to bring more value to our customers and providing them with additional payment options is a great way to do so.”

When shopping on the Ren’s website, approved customers can select Affirm at checkout to pay over time in biweekly or monthly payments. They are shown the total cost of their purchase up front and Affirm never charges customers any late or hidden fees, said the retailer.

Yvonne Herrera
Yvonne Herrera

“Pets are a beloved member of the household for many families, so we’re proud to partner with Ren’s Pets to offer approved Canadians the option to pay over time with Affirm,” said Yvonne Herrera, Vice President, Sales & Client Success at Affirm. “While life with pets can sometimes be unpredictable, Affirm can help owners take control of their finances so they can focus on helping their pet live its best life.”

“This is an excellent option for our customers,” added Wasyliw. “We’re excited for them to shop on the Ren’s website and be able to use Affirm’s flexible payment options at checkout.”

Image
Source: Ren’s Pets

Ren’s Pets has 60 stores in Ontario and Atlantic Canada plus a best-in-class ecommerce site shipping nationally.

Affirm said its mission is to deliver honest financial products that improve lives.

“By building a new kind of payment network – one based on trust, transparency and putting people first – we empower millions of consumers to spend and save responsibly, and give thousands of businesses the tools to fuel growth. Unlike most credit cards and other pay-over-time options, we show consumers exactly what they will pay up front and never charge any late or hidden fees,” it said.

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Cineplex box office revenues surpass $35 million in September

CF Fairview Mall Cineplex (Image: CF Fairview Mall)

Cineplex, Canada’s leading entertainment and media company, reported Thursday box office revenues of $35.2 million for September, exceeding September 2023 levels by three per cent. 

The company said it outperformed the North American box office relative to 2019 by nearly four per cent despite a tough comparison, as September 2019 was the second highest September ever with the record-breaking title IT Chapter Two.

It said top films for the month included the long-awaited Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, which delivered an impressive domestic opening weekend of $111 million. Deadpool & Wolverine continued to perform strongly, generating a staggering $1.3 billion at the global box office to date. Guests continued to elevate their movie-going experience with 70.1 per cent of Transformers One box office revenues coming from premium formats such as 3D, IMAX, ScreenX, D-BOX, VIP and UltraAVX.

“Cineplex saw increased momentum in international programming, with it accounting for a tremendous 14.9 per cent of September’s box office revenue, compared to North American peers at 4.8 per cent. The three highest-grossing international films for September included Ardaas Sarbat De Bhalle Di, Bibi Rajni and Stree 2, all of which were in Cineplex’s top 10 films for the month,” said Cineplex in a news release.

“Third quarter 2024 box office revenues of $174.9 million, represented 98 per cent of 2019 levels in the same period and 93 per cent of 2023, despite the tough benchmark of the ‘Barbenheimer’ cultural phenomenon in 2023. Box office performance this past quarter was driven by the success of Disney’s two major titles, Deadpool & Wolverine and Inside Out 2, along with Universal’s hit Despicable Me 4, which collectively accounted for approximately half of Cineplex’s box office.”

Ellis Jacob

“Our third quarter saw a steady stream of diverse film content which drove audiences into our theatres and again signified the strength of sustained movie-going,” said Ellis Jacob, President and CEO, Cineplex. “With highly anticipated titles like Gladiator II, Wicked, Moana 2, The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, Mufasa: The Lion King and Sonic the Hedgehog 3, we foresee a strong fourth quarter for the business. This represents an exciting moment for our company and highlights shareholders have much to look forward to.”

Period2019 Box Office2023 Box Office2024 Box Office2024 as a
Percentage of 2019
2024 as a
Percentage of 2023
July$76,935$86,388$72,46894 %84 %
August$56,537$67,592$67,199119 %99 %
September$44,393$34,253$35,21779 %103 %
Q3 Total $177,869$188,233$174,88498 %93 %
(i) Balances are in thousands of dollars.
Source: Cineplex

Cineplex has 169 movie theatres and location-based entertainment venues. It operates Canada’s favourite destination for ‘Eats & Entertainment’ (The Rec Room), complexes specially designed for teens and families (Playdium), and an entertainment concept that brings movies, amusement gaming, dining, and live performances together under one roof (Cineplex Junxion). It also operates successful businesses in digital commerce (CineplexStore.com), alternative programming (Cineplex Events), motion picture distribution (Cineplex Pictures), cinema media (Cineplex Media) and digital place-based media (Cineplex Digital Media).

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Canadian consumer confidence improving: Stifel survey

Photo- Alexandra Maria
Photo- Alexandra Maria

A recent survey by Stifel Financial Corp. suggests that consumer confidence has improved recently, highlighted by the sequential increase of 600bps in spending intentions on discretionary items and the annual increase of 700bps on spending intentions for the holidays.

The company said it is the first time in five quarters that a majority of respondents (54 per cent) indicate a willingness to increase their spending on discretionary items, suggesting that the depressed consumer spending patterns seen in the last 12-18 months could rebound.

“The increase in spending intentions for the holidays is noteworthy and is the highest of the last four years. Of the seven categories we track, spending intentions on pet food and pet accessories have increased the most sequentially. This survey is positive for Pet Valu, Dollarama, Aritzia, Gildan, Premium Brands, Kits Eyecare and mixed for BRP and Spin Master,” said the company of its clients.

Martin Landry
Martin Landry

“We believe that Canadians are encouraged by inflation abating and interest rates declining. This translated into healthy spending intentions for the Holidays. According to our survey, spending intentions for the holidays have increased by 700bps vs last year, to reach 49 per cent, the highest level of the last four years. These results bode well for the upcoming holiday shopping season where we should see better spending patterns than last year,” said Martin Landry, Managing Director of Stifel.

“It is still early to project how consumers will react in 2025, but if the results of our last two quarterly surveys are an indication, we believe that consumer spending could continue their rebound in 2025 and grow at a pace close to historical levels. Obviously, further reductions in interest rates will go a long way to bring back confidence and stimulate spending.”

Stifel’s key findings from the report:

  • 54 per cent of respondents expect to increase their spending on discretionary items in the coming 12 months, up 600bps sequentially from July 2024. Most of the increase comes from respondents who answered “my spending will increase slightly,” which suggests that it is a tempered increase in spending intentions, but positive nonetheless. Regionally, there has been a material increase of 1,400bps sequentially in Ontario, a positive surprise which could come from increased confidence due to declining interest rates as house prices and affordability are issues predominant in Ontario;
  • Spending intentions for the holidays have increased by 700bps vs last year, to reach 49 per cent, the highest level of the last four years. We saw a significant increase in spending intentions from 18- to 34-year-olds. Holiday spending intentions for respondents in that age group have increased by 1,500bps vs last year, a positive for Spin Master as this age group is the likely target market to buy children toys. This would suggest that the young demographic may indulge more this holiday season than last year, which is also a positive for Aritzia, given the company over indexes with young women;
  • 55 per cent of respondents to our survey expect to increase their spending on clothing and apparel in the next 12 months. This is the third-straight quarter of spending intentions above 50 per cent, suggesting a continuation of expansionary spending patterns for the clothing and apparel category. We have seen a pivot in the answers with spending intentions of female respondents declining 600bps sequentially from July, while spending intentions for males are up 800bps sequentially. This would be a negative read-through for Aritzia. However, this may be partly offset by a sequential increase of 800bps in spending intentions for respondents earning an income above $75k, traditionally the target market of Aritzia;
  • 74 per cent of the respondents to our survey indicated that they would increase their spending on pet food and accessories in the next 12 months, an increase of 400bps sequentially and 800bps Y/Y. This is the highest level in the last six quarters and is a positive for Pet Valu. However, similar to other categories, the increase comes from respondents who have answered “my spending will increase slightly,” hence, while this is positive, it needs to be taken into account when interpreting the results given that we have seen a slight decrease of 100bps sequentially in the respondent answering “my spending will increase significantly.”;
  • 7 per cent of respondents to our survey indicated being “very likely to purchase or upgrade a powersport vehicle in the next 12 months, a decline of 170bps sequentially. Spending intentions by male respondents decreased by 130bps sequentially, males being the key target market for the powersports industry. However, looking at the younger demographics paints a different picture. 11 per cent of respondents aged 18 to 54 said they were very likely to purchase or upgrade a powersport vehicle in the next 12 months, an increase of 110bps sequentially;
  • According to our survey, 73 per cent of respondents expect to increase their spending at dollar stores in the next 12 months, up 200bps sequentially. This is the highest reading of the last five surveys and suggests that the dollar store channel remains a favorite place for Canadians to stretch their dollars;
  • 49 per cent of respondents to our survey expect their spending on toys to increase in the next 12 months, a decrease of 500bps sequentially. Amongst the past five surveys, this is the first time that spending intentions are below 50 per cent, suggesting that toys could be a category where Canadians may reduce spending in the coming months. However, within respondents aged between 18 and 54 years, an important cohort representing parents, spending intentions remained stable Y/Y at 58 per cent. These results are mixed for Spin Master, in our view.

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Sluggish growth for Canadian economy: CFIB report

Photo: fauxels
Photo: fauxels

The Canadian economy grew at a slower pace in the third quarter of 2024 and is likely to continue that trend in the fourth quarter, according to the latest Main Street Quarterly report by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB), which was released on Thursday.


Key highlights:

  • CFIB’s estimates and forecasts in partnership with AppEco suggest Canadian economic growth slowed down to 1.2 per cent in the third quarter of the year. The GDP is expected to continue growing at a slow pace in Q4, at 1.4 per cent, as the economy continues to face some headwinds;
  • The Q3 estimate for the total Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation dropped to 2.1 per cent year-over-year, and according to the Q4 forecast, it is expected to further recede to 2.0 per cent in the last part of this year;
  • The Q3 private sector job vacancy rate fell in all provinces and sectors. Nationally, it dropped to 2.7 per cent, a level last seen in mid-2017. This represents 379,000 unfilled positions;
  • A special analysis in this edition focuses on struggling and growing businesses. There were nearly twice as many struggling firms in the first three quarters of 2024 (at 5.8 per cent) compared to the 2014-19 average (3.9 per cent). On the other hand, the share of growing firms has almost halved, to 6.0 per cent in 2024 from 10.8% in the pre-pandemic years. Businesses that are doing well are mostly constrained by a lack of labour and space, while struggling firms report a lack of demand and working capital;
  • The quarterly sectoral profile focuses on firms in the health and education subsectors. Firms operating in these sectors are more optimistic than those in other sectors, however their confidence is on a downward trend in 2024. These businesses are mostly limited by skilled labour shortages and limited space. Their main cost constraints are occupancy costs and wage costs.
Simon Gaudreault

“The good news is that inflation is on the right path and expected to remain within the Bank of Canada’s target range in Q4. This should be a strong motivator for the Bank to make repeated and larger interest rate cuts in the coming months,” said CFIB’s chief economist and vice-president of research Simon Gaudreault.

“Monetary policy is very restrictive at the moment, and we are seeing an important impact on demand, sales and the overall health of a weakened and not-so-optimistic SME sector. Both consumers and firms are impacted by the still-high interest rates. All of this helps to put in context our forecast that Canada’s GDP will continue seeing modest growth in the next quarter.

‘While it is going to take some time for the interest rate cuts to completely work their way through the economy, there’s clearly an imbalance in the economic environment as the higher costs of doing business, already fully being felt and here to stay, continue to make it very difficult for small- and medium-sized firms to operate and grow.”

Meanwhile, the Conference Board of Canada has released its 5-year outlook for the Canadian economy, outlining the key themes that will help or hinder growth in the coming years. Key findings of the research include:

  • After falling for much of the past two years, per capita consumer spending will be on a steady path upward over the final three months of the year;
  • Businesses have remained cautious in 2024 about investment decisions. But investment is poised to turn the corner soon, spearheaded by the automotive and resource sectors;
  • Housing affordability remains top of mind for many Canadians. Recent policy changes targeted at reducing the number of migrants and boosting housing supply will temper housing costs, but the impact may be marginal;
  • In terms of U.S. trade and tax policy, our outlook is murkier. Both parties in the upcoming election have the potential to blindside Canada on tax and trade policies;
  • Further down the line, Canada’s growth path will be determined by how effectively the economy manages its transition to lower-emission energy sources

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