Bruce Winder, a top retail expert in Canada, discusses the recent holiday shopping season and what the retail sector can expect in 2025.
Winder discusses the mood of Canadian consumers these days, what sectors of the retail industry did well during the holiday period, what sectors didn’t do so well and are struggling, and if we can expect more of the same in 2025.
The 2024 holiday season brought a mixed bag of results for Canada’s retail sector, according to insights from Winder, one of the country’s top retail experts. While some segments performed well, others faced unprecedented challenges, reflecting broader economic headwinds and shifting consumer behaviours.
“I’ve never seen a year with so many challenges built into it,” said Winder. “The consumer was incredibly frugal, prioritizing sales and essentials, largely due to rising costs in areas like rent and food.”
Black Friday and Boxing Day Trends
While Black Friday and Cyber Monday remain major events, their impact has softened. Winder attributed this to the extended promotional period that now spans weeks, diluting the intensity of sales on those specific days. Notably, online sales during Black Friday were reportedly softer, with smaller retailers especially hard-hit due to disruptions like the Canada Post strike.
In contrast, Boxing Day saw significant foot traffic, surprising many with its robust activity in malls. However, this momentum may not have translated equally across all segments.
Value Retailers Shine, Mid-Range Struggles
Retailers in the value segment, such as Dollarama, Walmart, and emerging platforms like Temu, fared well. Consumers flocked to these outlets seeking affordability, with Temu becoming Canada’s most downloaded app in 2024.
Meanwhile, mid-to-high-end retailers catering to aspirational customers struggled. “Department stores like Hudson’s Bay likely faced challenges, as frugal consumers prioritized essentials over discretionary spending,” Winder noted.
Key Challenges and Outlook
The retail landscape was further complicated by the HST holiday, which caused logistical headaches but provided modest boosts in specific categories like toys and children’s clothing. Economic uncertainties, including potential geopolitical shifts and trade tensions, loom large over 2025.
Winder predicts further consolidation in the retail industry, with smaller players potentially exiting and larger brands scaling back operations. To succeed, retailers must focus on cost efficiency and leverage AI to better understand and serve their customers.
“It’s all about knowing your consumer better than the competition and offering incredible value,” Winder concluded.
As retailers brace for another challenging year, adaptability and innovation will be critical in navigating an uncertain future.
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