For decades, betting against McDonald’s has proven to be a losing strategy. The company has weathered every headwind imaginable: calls for healthier eating, tougher labour laws, the rise and fall of plant-based meat, and complex procurement challenges. Through it all, McDonald’s has remained remarkably resilient. But today, the fast-food giant may be facing its most formidable threat yet — and it has nothing to do with burgers or fries. It’s Ozempic.
This week, McDonald’s shares dipped following an analyst downgrade, triggered by concerns over the growing use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs like Ozempic. Analysts estimate the company could lose up to 28 million customer visits in the U.S. alone. While the market reaction has been modest so far, the long-term implications are serious. By 2030, up to 30 million Americans — nearly 1 in 10 — may be using GLP-1 medications. In Canada, that number could reach between 1.5 and 3 million, equivalent to the entire population of the Island of Montreal.
These medications suppress appetite and, by extension, shift consumption patterns. Early data suggests that consumers on GLP-1s are eating less frequently and with greater intentionality. This poses a direct threat to brands built on impulse consumption — particularly those targeting value-conscious or lower-income demographics, a category into which McDonald’s firmly falls.
The food industry has faced disruption before. The rise of online grocery and food delivery services in the early 2000s challenged the sector’s reliance on impulse-based purchasing. Digital platforms forced companies to reimagine how they connect with consumers in a non-physical environment. The growing adoption of GLP-1s presents a similar disruption — but this time, the driver is physiological, not technological, and largely outside the industry’s control.
The downgrade of McDonald’s stock should not be dismissed lightly. In Canada, the company operates over 1,400 restaurants, employs approximately 90,000 people, and commands 18% to 20% of the quick-service market. It serves more than 2.5 million Canadians every day. McDonald’s is also the largest single buyer of Canadian beef and eggs in the foodservice industry — making it a crucial link in the domestic agri-food value chain.
Other signals point to broader structural shifts. WeightWatchers has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Major snacking companies are also feeling the pressure. Year-over-year, PepsiCo’s stock is down nearly 21%, Nestlé is down 10%, and Mars has seen a 5% decline. Nestlé has even introduced a line of “Ozempic-friendly” products to cater to a new consumer reality: smaller appetites, higher sensitivity to side effects, and less frequent indulgence.
As was the case with the rise of plant-based diets, the food industry is once again being forced to adapt. The difference this time is that GLP-1 usage isn’t a lifestyle choice — it’s a medical intervention. Quick-service chains now recognize that if one member of a group can’t find a suitable menu option, the entire group may choose to dine elsewhere.
This is, quite simply, a turning point. It marks the first time in modern history that a pharmaceutical innovation is reshaping the global food landscape at scale. McDonald’s has proven its adaptability in the past and may do so again. But make no mistake: the GLP-1 revolution has the full attention of many executive in the food industry — and with good reason.
