The retail sector showed continued stability in the latter half of 2025 with low vacancies that will likely continue trending downwards, according to the Greater Vancouver Retail Report H1 2026 by commercial real estate firm Colliers.
“Continued political tensions with the U.S. has helped to incorporate the “Buy Canadian” movement into the cultural norm with consumer spending affected and tourism into the U.S. down significantly from the previous year,” said the report.
“Projections for the first half of 2026 are giving investors and tenants alike a reason for optimism heading into the summer. One of the largest retail developments in recent memory, the redevelopment of the old Oakridge Mall into the new master planned Oakridge Park mixed-use complex is planned to finish its first phase of construction.
“Shortly thereafter, Vancouver will host seven FIFA World Cup 26 matches over a one-month span, an event expected to draw hundreds of thousands of international visitors and deliver an additional boost to the B.C. economy.”
The report said as of year-end 2025, the Urban Retail Colliers Index Vacancy Rate is 2.99%, up from 2.90% at mid-year 2025. Meanwhile, the Suburban Retail Colliers Index Vacancy Rate is 0.81% up from 0.70% at mid-year 2025. Average monthly retail sales for B.C., reported by Statistics Canada, were up 2.5% year-over-year (YoY) to $9.4B as of October 2025 – showing modest growth in consumer spending but slowing down from 7.1% YoY in May 2025.
“However, with year-end spending, these figures are likely to receive a significant bump. These results are consistent in showing how consumer spending and vacancy rates are stabilizing,” said Colliers.
“The urban street vacancy rate rose slightly by nine basis points, however, this was largely due to a single large vacancy in Yaletown that bumped up the vacancy.
“Without this vacancy, urban street vacancy would have decreased nineteen basis points, to 2.71%, the lowest recorded vacancy since H1 2022.”
• Grocery-anchored shopping centres, continue to be the standard for stability in an already stable asset class. With a sub 1% vacancy rate two years in a row, consumers show a continued desire to shop near their residences with no signs of changing anytime soon.
• Since the summer, the Bank of Canada has cut interest rates by a cumulative 50 bps, to its current rate of 2.25%. The last time interest rates reached this low was in June 2022. With the inflation rate hovering around 2%, within the BoC target range, these macroeconomic indicators are the ingredients for strong retail growth.
Colliers said the number of Canadian residents returning from the U.S. in August 2025, a peak tourism month, was down 29.7% YoY, whereas the number of US residents visiting Canada declined 1.4% YoY according to Statistics Canada Tourism Statistics. Most notably in August 2025, there was a 29.7% YoY reduction in Canadian residents returning from the Unted States, which was a driving force for a 21.5% overall reduction in Canadians returning from international travel in that same period, showing further evidence of Canadians staying in Canada during vacation months.
Sherman Scott, VP, Vancouver Retail Brokerage, Colliers, said many factors are contributing to Vancouver’s retail stability in 2026.
“We still haven’t caught up from years of population growth. Retail projects in Vancouver are typically mixed‑use in nature, and with demand slowing for other asset classes such as office and residential, retail supply is also slowing. The redevelopment of older malls like Oakridge and The Amazing Brentwood has opened up opportunities that were not there before,” he said.
“The HBC closure has also created opportunities that did not previously exist. Transit‑oriented development is supporting retailers seeking space near SkyTrain stations. There has been a resurgence of in‑person shopping. Service and experiential retail continues to remain in high demand.”
Scott said Buy Canadian and shifting travel patterns have accelerated the expansion of local brands such as grocery stores and drug stores. Retail leasing is particularly strong in grocery‑anchored shopping centres and neighbourhood plazas.
“Oakridge Park and FIFA 2026 will once again put Vancouver on the world stage. There will be high demand for short‑term pop‑up retail during FIFA,” he said.
“Recession‑proof retail formats such as grocery stores and drug stores are best positioned in the year ahead.”
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