According to a new survey conducted in partnership with Probe Research, nearly half of Calgary Chamber member respondents say they are prepared to leave Alberta and relocate their business to another province if Albertans vote to begin the formal process towards separation from Canada. Only 39 per cent indicate they are unlikely to do so, says the Calgary Chamber of Commerce.
The Chamber said the results point to growing concerns within Calgary’s business community about the economic uncertainty and disruption associated with a potential separation process, with 91 per cent of member respondents reporting that they are following the referendum discussion closely. The findings also show that 63 per cent of respondents report separatism is already having a negative impact on their business, while 74 per cent see no tangible benefit to Alberta separating from Canada.
The Chamber said the findings are reinforced by analysis commissioned by the Calgary Chamber and conducted by Trevor Tombe, Professor of Economics at the University of Calgary. The analysis finds that approximately one in three Albertan workers are exposed to disruptions in trade with the rest of Canada and international markets, and roughly 16 cents of every dollar earned in the province is tied to those exports to the rest of Canada alone – amounting to $78 billion in 2025.
The Chamber said the analysis further projects that an eight per cent increase in interprovincial and international trade costs following separation — based on observed effects from Brexit in the United Kingdom — would reduce Alberta’s GDP per capita by approximately six per cent, reduce employment by roughly 175,000 jobs and contract the economy by an estimated $62 billion annually. It also estimates that an investment decline driven by uncertainty on a scale comparable to that seen after Brexit could result in $10 to $15 billion in foregone investment in 2026, or up to $3,000 per Albertan.
“Our business community is sending a clear message — separation has moved beyond a theoretical debate to having tangible effects on business confidence and decision-making,” said Deborah Yedlin, President and CEO at the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. “This discussion is not only about the movement of capital to other jurisdictions viewed as more predictable and stable, but also about how the movement of businesses, jobs and labour would permanently damage our economy. If a formal referendum process moves forward, the very foundations that have made Alberta one of Canada’s strongest economies – including a predictable, business-friendly environment – will be in jeopardy.
“The success of Alberta’s economy relies on more than a century of trade ties with other provinces and key trading partners, supported by agreements, infrastructure and regulatory continuity. Now more than ever, our economy needs stability amid rising uncertainty and geopolitical disruptions that businesses have no control over. We must focus on what we can control here at home to provide businesses the confidence to stay in Alberta, and that includes a firm opposition to separation.”
But the Let Alberta Decide group said the Chamber has focused on fear while ignoring the larger economic reality: Alberta’s economy has been held back for more than a decade by federal policies that have driven away investment, constrained resource development, and limited Alberta’s potential.
Keith Wilson, K.C., co-lead of Let Alberta Decide, said the Chamber misses the central issue.
“The Chamber is measuring fear, not opportunity,” said Wilson. “It is warning Albertans about hypothetical uncertainty from independence while ignoring the real uncertainty Alberta businesses have lived with under Ottawa. The greatest threat to Alberta’s economy is not Albertans having a democratic vote on their future. The greatest threat is allowing Ottawa to keep blocking, capping, taxing, delaying, and politicizing the industries that built this province.”
Wilson said Alberta remains one of Canada’s strongest economies despite federal policies that have discouraged investment in energy, infrastructure, agriculture, and resource development.
“Alberta’s farmland is not moving. Alberta’s oil and gas reserves are not moving. Our skilled trades, engineers, entrepreneurs, service companies, infrastructure, and young workforce are here,” Wilson said. “Alberta is not a branch office economy. Alberta is a producing economy.”
Let Alberta Decide said the Chamber also ignores the massive capital flight Canada has experienced under the current federal policy environment, with recent economic analysis reporting that more than $1 trillion in investment left Canada between 2015 and 2024.
“Businesses do not leave because a people debate their future,” Wilson said. “Investment leaves when governments make the rules unpredictable – and Ottawa has done that to Alberta for more than a decade. That capital did not leave Canada because Albertans were discussing independence. It left under the current federal system.”
Wilson said independence would give Alberta authority over resource regulation, taxation, immigration policy, infrastructure approvals, trade policy, pipeline approvals, and market access.
“Albertans should be making the decisions that shape Alberta’s economy,” Wilson said. “Those decisions determine whether projects get built, whether jobs are created, and whether young Albertans can build their futures here at home.”
More from Retail Insider:
