A new report says families got a break on their Thanksgiving turkey dinner in 2025, when the Dalhousie University’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab basket rose just 0.6 per cent, from $32.30 to $32.48.
But this year’s estimate offers no such relief: a traditional turkey dinner for two adults and two children is projected to cost $35.72, an increase of $3.24, or 10.0 per cent, it noted.
The report compares four menus with the same side dishes: potatoes, carrots, dinner rolls, pumpkin pie, cranberries, stuffing and gravy. Turkey remains the least expensive option in the 2026 scenarios, with ham close behind.
“Families got a break in 2025, with the cost of our turkey basket barely changing. This year, our estimate points to a much larger increase,” said Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, Senior Director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab. “An extra $3.24 may appear modest, but for households watching every grocery dollar, it matters.”
| Main course | Estimated 2026 meal cost for four |
| Turkey | $35.72 |
| Ham | $36.37 |
| Lamb | $80.47 |
| Lobster | $88.14 |
All amounts are in Canadian dollars. Costs include the same side dishes.
“Holiday food budgets depend on the whole basket, including the sides,” says Janet Music of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab. “Our assessment was based on advertised prices only. Shoppers who visit stores in person may find additional deals or markdowns that are not advertised, bringing their final bill below our estimates.”
In the turkey scenario, the main course accounts for $2.10 of the estimated increase from 2025. Carrots add $0.74, while five other side dishes add approximately $0.40. The assumed price of a 10-pound bag of potatoes remains $6.99.
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