Canadian families are seeing some late-summer relief at the grocery store, but they should not assume that food inflation has disappeared, says the Agri-Food Analytics Lab’s Special Back-to-School Food Prices Report 2026, prepared in collaboration with GroceryPulse.ca.
The report said that a national basket of 45 food products declined by 2.8% between July and August, falling from $269.52 to $262.07. Prices declined for 30 of the 45 products, remained unchanged for nine and increased for six.
A more focused basket of 12 popular school-lunch staples also fell by 2.8%, from $55.61 in July to $54.04 in August. Lower prices for bagels, bottled water, canned tuna, cheddar cheese, chicken nuggets and peanut butter helped offset a 6.3% increase in the price of orange juice, it explained.
The Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University conducts research on food prices, food systems, consumer behaviour, supply chains and public policy. Its work provides evidence-based analysis to consumers, industry stakeholders and policymakers across Canada.
Link to report (English) : Special Back To School Report 2026
Link to report (French) : Rapport spécial sur la rentrée scolaire 2026
“Parents are getting some welcome relief as they prepare for the new school year, but we should not confuse a promotion-heavy August snapshot with a lasting reversal in food inflation,” said Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, Senior Director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University.
“Grocers are competing aggressively for back-to-school spending, and that is helping consumers for now. The real test will come later this fall, when seasonal pressures begin to build and promotional activity may become less generous.”
The report said promotions played a significant role in August. The proportion of GroceryPulse observations priced below the listed regular price rose from 10.1% in July to 17.5% in August. This suggests that at least part of the monthly decline resulted from temporary discounting rather than a broad, permanent reduction in food costs.
Official Statistics Canada data also provide a more cautious picture. Grocery prices were still 3.1% higher year over year in July and exceeded the overall inflation rate for an 18th consecutive month, it said.
Regional differences remain substantial
The cost of the 12-item school-lunch basket ranged from $52.05 in Quebec City to $56.48 in St. John’s, representing a difference of 8.5%, according to the report.
For the broader 45-item food basket, Winnipeg recorded the lowest total at $258.09, while St. John’s had the highest at $280.07. St. John’s and Moncton were among the most expensive markets measured, reflecting the continued influence of freight costs, market size and regional retail conditions, it added.
Fall relief before prices firm toward December
The report said its September-to-December outlook for 24 popular lunchbox food is forecasting that an 18-item GroceryPulse-anchored reference basket is projected to decline from $90.27 in August to approximately $89.20 in October before rising to about $96.00 in December—6.3% above its August level.
Fresh produce is expected to experience greater seasonal volatility than packaged products. Tomatoes, romaine lettuce and strawberries could become more expensive later in the fall, while many sandwich and protein staples are expected to remain comparatively stable, said the report.
“The most effective strategy for families is flexibility,” said Janet Music, Research Program Coordinator at the Agri-Food Analytics Lab. “Parents can rotate among fruits and protein options according to weekly prices, compare unit prices and take advantage of meaningful promotions on products that store well. A flexible lunch plan can generate savings without sacrificing nutrition or variety.”
Geopolitical risks remain limited but uneven
The report said its central forecast assumes no major geopolitical shock or significant escalation in tariffs and trade disruptions. Under that scenario, geopolitics should have a limited but uneven effect on school-lunch costs this fall.
Imported produce, juices, packaged foods, transportation and packaging would be among the most exposed categories. A weaker Canadian dollar, supply-chain disruptions or new Canadian counter-tariffs on food products could push actual prices above the report’s projections, it said.
“Geopolitics is unlikely to be the main driver of lunchbox prices this fall unless the trade dispute escalates,” said Charlebois. “However, counter-tariffs on food would directly raise costs for Canadian importers and could also influence the prices of domestic substitutes. Food should be treated carefully in any retaliatory trade strategy because families ultimately pay the bill at the grocery store.”
Practical strategies for families
The report recommends that parents:
- Build lunches around stable staples such as yogurt, whole-wheat bread, bananas and carrots.
- Rotate fruits and vegetables according to weekly prices.
- Keep several protein options available, including tuna, cheese, eggs and permitted nut or seed butters.
- Use promotions to stock up on products that store well.
- Compare prices per 100 grams or per litre, rather than relying only on package prices.
- Use refillable water bottles when practical.
The GroceryPulse analysis is based on 7,234 price observations collected from 145 stores across 13 Canadian cities and up to 22 retail banners. The report combines GroceryPulse shelf-price data with Statistics Canada’s Consumer Price Index and average retail-price series.
The full Special Back-to-School Food Prices Report 2026 includes product-level comparisons, regional results, forecasts for 24 lunchbox staples and practical advice for families.
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