In November, the business opening rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 5.0%, following a 0.2 percentage point decline in the previous month. The opening rate was 0.3 percentage points above its 2015-to-2019 historical average, according to a report released Tuesday by Statistics Canada.
In November, sectors showed a mix of increases and decreases in their number of active businesses. Health care and social assistance (+375) recorded the highest increase, followed by accommodation and food services (+238). In contrast, professional, scientific and technical services (-212) experienced the largest decline, followed by retail trade (-207), added the federal agency.
This opening rate rise was driven by a 0.5 percentage point increase in the re-opening rate to reach 3.4% in November. Meanwhile, both the entry and closure rates declined by about 0.1 percentage points, it said.
“The business entry rate edged down by 0.1 percentage points to 1.6% in November, after showing no change in the previous month. Similarly, the business closure rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 4.8%, following a 0.2 percentage point increase in the previous month. The business entry rate was 0.2 percentage points below its historical average, while the business closure rate was 0.2 percentage points above its historical average,” explained Statistics Canada.
“The number of active businesses rose by 0.1% (+928 businesses) in November, mainly because of an increase in the number of business re-openings. In the same month, business insolvency filings fell by 17.9% (429 in October compared with 356 in November), payroll employment declined by 0.1% and real gross domestic product was essentially unchanged.”
A Toronto chef and a veteran entrepreneur are launching a new chocolate manufacturing venture they say will give Canadian chefs and bakers an alternative to buying from large foreign conglomerates.
Chef Brandon Olsen and entrepreneur Michael Held plan to take As We Do Chocolate to market in July, positioning the company as a premium, Canadian-made supplier focused primarily on the business-to-business market.
Olsen said professional kitchens across the country have long relied on a small group of U.S. and European industrial chocolate producers, leaving little room for domestic options or product customization.
“All chefs, restaurateurs, bakers, anyone that uses chocolate in the B2B space, they’re forced to buy from U.S. and European conglomerates,” he said in an interview. “Why can’t there be a Canadian company going after the Canadian B2B market?”
The founders say that gap in the market, combined with demand for higher-quality ingredients and closer supplier relationships, underpins their business strategy.
As We Do has launched a Kickstarter campaign with a funding goal of $100,000. The Kickstarter will offer early supporters various rewards, including limited product pre-sales and unique “Chocolate for Life” packages. Proceeds from the campaign will support the final setup of the company’s 15,000–20,000-square-foot factory in Toronto, which is scheduled to open to the public in September 2026.
Focus on quality and customization
As We Do Chocolate will manufacture chocolate using cocoa, cocoa butter and sugar, eliminating additives such as soy lecithin, sunflower lecithin and palm oils commonly found in industrial products, Olsen said.
“If you look at industrial chocolate, they’re filled with lecithins … palm oils,” he said. “What sets us aside is not only being a Canadian manufacturer of chocolate, but also the quality, using a good bean, getting rid of all that extra stuff, and getting back to what chocolate is.”
Beyond ingredient sourcing, Olsen said the company intends to differentiate itself by offering flexibility to professional clients. Large multinational suppliers often require substantial minimum orders before altering product specifications, he said.
“With conglomerates, you have to spend at least a million dollars before they even think about changing their lines,” Olsen said. “You don’t have to commit to a large quantity to get what you’re looking for.”
Brandon Olsen and Michael Held
The company will distribute its product through the same channels restaurants and food-service operators already use, working with established distribution partners. In addition to its B2B focus, As We Do Chocolate plans to operate an e-commerce platform and retail component at its factory, and to sell through higher-end boutique shops.
“As much as we want to be fully B2B, we also want to be accessible to home bakers and people who just love chocolate,” Olsen said.
From law and digital health to food manufacturing
Held, 54, brings a background in corporate law, strategy consulting and digital health entrepreneurship to the venture. A law and MBA graduate, he previously worked in mergers and acquisitions and securities law at a major Canadian firm before moving into consulting. In 2004, he founded a digital mental health company that he grew over more than two decades, taking it public in 2021 at a valuation just under $500 million.
“My passion lies in building and scaling businesses,” Held said. “I’ve spent the last 22 years … starting and doing everything, and then 22 years later, you’re still doing the stapling, but managing hundreds of people.”
He said the chocolate venture reflects a desire to build something he is personally passionate about, alongside a partner he respects.
“I want to spend the rest of my time doing something I’m super passionate about, working with people I love,” Held said. “I love building.”
Olsen, who has worked in the culinary industry for 42 years and began cooking at 14, described himself as a serial entrepreneur. This will be his third chocolate company and roughly his 10th business venture overall, including restaurants and other food concepts in Toronto.
He previously worked at The French Laundry in California, where he said he developed a deep interest in chocolate.
“That’s where I actually fell in love with chocolate,” Olsen said. “I was hooked.”
Building relationships with chefs
The two met during the COVID-19 pandemic, when Olsen was operating a business offering in-home dining experiences as restrictions allowed. Held said they quickly formed a friendship and began discussing the possibility of building something together.
The name As We Do Chocolate emerged during a business trip to New York for a chocolate conference, Olsen said. Over dinner on their final night, the pair toasted their partnership.
“I said, ‘As we do,’” Olsen recalled. “And it was just like, that’s the name.”
Photo: As We Do Chocolate
While product quality is central to the company’s pitch, Held said relationship-building is equally important to its strategy.
He said conversations with dozens of chefs revealed frustration with distant suppliers and a desire for closer ties.
“One chef said, ‘I just want to be able to shake the hands of the person making the ingredients that are going into my offering,’” Held said.
“I think we’re at a time where people are trying to create better relationships, know their people, have trust, be listened to and collaborate, not just be told how their business is going to work when it comes to ingredients that are so important.”
Held said the company intends to position itself as both supplier and partner, adapting products over time based on feedback from chefs rather than dictating specifications.
“Some of it will be that the chocolate is great,” he said. “But some of it will be that we shake hands, talk and discuss how our product evolves as a journey instead of dictating it.”
For Olsen, the venture represents an effort to create a Canadian alternative in a category he believes has long lacked one.
“We’re here to fill a void in the Canadian landscape,” he said.
Foodtastic, a leading Canadian restaurant franchisor with a portfolio of 27 diverse brands and over 1,200 establishments across the country, has acquired Central Social Hall, an Edmonton-based premium casual dining and social hall brand known for its chef-driven menus, curated drinks, and community-focused hospitality.
“Central Social Hall is a strong all-Canadian brand with a clear identity and a faithful guest base,” said Peter Mammas, founder and Chief Executive Officer of Foodtastic. “Its unique positioning in the casual dining sector fits well with our approach to diversify and strengthen our portfolio with concepts that engage today’s guests. Central fills an important niche by offering a hybrid dining experience that appeals to both the casual diner and those craving a more refined atmosphere. We are looking forward to growing this great brand in Canada.”
He said the move supports the company’s strategy of adding strong Canadian brands to its portfolio of banners and expanding into dining concepts that cater to both everyday occasions and social gatherings.
Peter Mammas, CEO of Foodtastic
Central Social Hall was founded in 2012 by Jerry Rota and Jesse Kupina and has two locations in Edmonton.
“From day one, Central was built to be a place where people can gather to celebrate around a high-quality meal and atmosphere and create lasting memories,” said Andrea Schlingmann, Brand Leader at Central Social Hall. “Foodtastic will provide Central with the infrastructure and scale to grow thoughtfully, while maintaining the culture, hospitality, and sense of community that are so important to us.”
Andrea Schlingmann
The company plans to expand the brand beyond Edmonton through a staged rollout in Alberta and other Canadian provinces over the next few years.
Foodtastic’sbrands include Rotisseries Benny, La Belle et La Bœuf, Monza, Second Cup, Quesada, Freshii, and Pita Pit, among others.
Mammas said the company was looking for looking for something in the social hall, social bar aspect.
“We were actually going to create our own, but I happened to be in Edmonton and I met some wonderful folks from there and got to see Central. I said, you know what? It just doesn’t make sense to create a new concept. This makes perfect sense. Let’s see if we could buy it. They were also in the same mind frame. They wanted to sell. So it was kind of perfect for us. We got exactly what we wanted without having to make all the effort to create it,” he explained.
Mammas said the brand is something that Foodtastic thinks could easily be brought to other parts of Alberta.
“Also, in our portfolio, we may have some under performing locations which we could convert to something more modern and more appealing to the Gen Zs, like Central Social Hall,” he said.
“Basically, the social house or the social hall is a modern pub. That’s what it is. It’s the pubs of 2025, of our times. You have the old pubs, and they came over from Europe, and people used to go there and gather and eat. But now the young kids want more. I wouldn’t say quality food, but more intricate food, more fish. You have sushi on it. You can have trendy stuff on it. They also want not just beer. They want cocktails and ready-to-drink alcohol. It kind of encompasses everything. We see a space for it. There’s not that many competitors out there in that space. We think we could do really well with it.”
Mammas said the company is opening about two new stores a week in its umbrella.
Recently, Restaurants Canada warned about a growing number of establishments in the country that are struggling to stay alive.
“The larger players, we have a lot more resources, marketing-wise, site-wise, operationally. So we’re in a much better space,” explained Mammas.
“As far as the segments themselves, full-service restaurants are actually doing quite well. The consumer is still going out. Our full-service division is comping positively year over year. It’s because people know the economy might be tightening, there might be insecurities, but they still want to go out and enjoy a great meal with friends and family and socialize and celebrate all the milestones that life has to offer.
“Where we’re seeing softness is actually on the quick-service side. That’s where people are cutting back. Maybe they’re not eating out as much for breakfast or lunch, or ordering from third parties as much. They’re cutting back on stuff that’s replaceable, like the quick-service segment, but they’re still dining out.
“Those stats and what we see in our own system gave us the confidence to grow and buy Central, and gives us the confidence to grow that brand.”
The Home Depot, the world’s largest home improvement retailer, reported Tuesday its fourth quarter and fiscal 2025 results, as annual sales were $164.7 billion US, an increase of $5.2 billion.
Ted Decker
“Throughout fiscal 2025, our teams did an incredible job engaging with our customers and growing market share, and I would like to thank them for their hard work and dedication,” said Ted Decker, chair, president and CEO.
“For the fourth quarter, our results were largely in-line with our expectations, reflecting the lack of storm activity in the third quarter and ongoing consumer uncertainty and pressure in housing. Adjusting for storms, underlying demand was relatively stable throughout the year.”
Fourth Quarter 2025
Sales for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 were $38.2 billion, a decrease of $1.5 billion, or 3.8% from the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024. The fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 consisted of 13 weeks compared with 14 weeks for the prior year. The 14th week in fiscal 2024 added approximately $2.5 billion of sales to the fourth quarter and the year;
Comparable sales for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 increased 0.4%, and comparable sales in the U.S. increased 0.3%;
Net earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 were $2.6 billion, or $2.58 per diluted share, compared with net earnings of $3.0 billion, or $3.02 per diluted share, in the same period of fiscal 2024. The 14th week in fiscal 2024 added approximately $0.30 to diluted earnings per share to the fourth quarter and the year;
Adjusted diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 were $2.72, compared with adjusted diluted earnings per share of $3.13 in the same period of fiscal 2024. The 14th week in fiscal 2024 added approximately $0.30 to adjusted diluted earnings per share to the fourth quarter and the year.
Fiscal 2025
Sales for fiscal 2025 were $164.7 billion, an increase of $5.2 billion, or 3.2% from fiscal 2024. Comparable sales for fiscal 2025 increased 0.3%, and comparable sales in the U.S. increased 0.5%;
Net earnings for fiscal 2025 were $14.2 billion, or $14.23 per diluted share, compared with net earnings of $14.8 billion, or $14.91 per diluted share in fiscal 2024;
Adjusted diluted earnings per share for fiscal 2025 were $14.69, compared with adjusted diluted earnings per share of $15.24 in fiscal 2024.
The company provided the following guidance for fiscal 2026:
Total sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5%
Comparable sales growth of approximately flat to 2.0%
Approximately 15 new stores
Gross margin of approximately 33.1%
Operating margin of approximately 12.4% to 12.6%
Adjusted operating margin of approximately 12.8% to 13.0%
Effective tax rate of approximately 24.3%
Net interest expense of approximately $2.3 billion
Diluted earnings-per-share to grow approximately flat to 4.0% from $14.23 in fiscal 2025
Adjusted diluted earnings-per-share to grow approximately flat to 4.0% from $14.69 in fiscal 2025
Capital expenditures of approximately 2.5% of total sales
At the end of the fourth quarter, the company operated 2,359 retail stores and over 1,250 SRS locations across all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, 10 Canadian provinces and Mexico. The company employs over 470,000 people.
A new nationwide survey says financial pressure is now a defining reality for most Canadians, with overwhelming majorities reporting rising expenses, tighter budgets and forced changes to everyday spending.
The findings highlight how sustained cost-of-living increases are reshaping household finances across the country.
According to a Harris & Partners survey of 2,196 Canadians, the results reveal widespread financial strain:
87% say they feel financially trapped due to rising living expenses and or debt
85%report their overall monthly expenses have increased in the past 12 months
85% say their household budget has become harder to manage
97% say everyday price increases have forced them to rethink how they spend their money
88% have postponed or cancelled plans such as travel, major purchases or life goals due to higher costs
Joshua Harris
“These results show just how deeply rising living costs are affecting Canadian households. For many people, it is no longer about cutting back on extras. It is about trying to keep up with everyday expenses. When 87% of Canadians say they feel financially trapped, that is a clear signal of how little room there is left in household budgets,” said Joshua Harris, CEO of Harris & Partners and a Licensed Insolvency Trustee.
Nearly all respondents say higher prices have altered how they manage their money, with everyday spending decisions increasingly shaped by affordability rather than preference, said the report.
“Canadians are adapting because they have to. People are thinking twice about every purchase, delaying plans and constantly reworking their budgets just to stay afloat. This kind of financial pressure becomes exhausting over time,” added Harris.
Beyond day-to-day costs, the survey also found growing concern about wider economic pressures:
73% are concerned that trade tariffs on imported goods such as vehicles, electronics or produce will further limit their ability to pay down debt
60% say they are worried about job security or household income due to the potential impact of tariffs on the Canadian economy
“When households are already stretched, anything that threatens higher prices or income stability adds another layer of stress,” explained Harris.
“People are worried not just about today’s bills, but about what comes next.”
New research from KPMG International is urging banks and retailers to form strategic partnerships—or risk falling behind—as businesses attempt to keep up with the rapid pace of change in the payments space.
The report, Partnering for payment modernization by KPMG International, includes responses from 500 banks and 500 retailers to assess their progress on payment modernization. It identifies that while costs are high and modern technology continues to disrupt; a better ecosystem of partnerships between banks, retailers, technology providers and regulators can help improve operations and enhance the payments experience for customers.
The company said the survey reveals that 54% of retailers believe that payment modernization is crucial to the future of their business, including delivering major efficiency and operational gains. However, just over half (53%) of retailers believe that their banks understand their payment modernization goals, with 45% saying their banks are proactively delivering payment solutions tailored to their needs.
With the average retailer planning to increase modernization budgets by 2.5% over the next year, there is scope for more cohesion and development in the area. Banks don’t disagree, with 51% believing that the future winners in payments will be those with the best ecosystems. 60% of banks also indicate an increase in spending this year, with 21% reporting expected increases of 5 to 9% over their existing budgets, it said.
Isabelle Allen
“The quest by consumers for ever faster, lower friction and more secure payment options is relentless and fueling innovation and disruption. Banks and retailers cannot afford to work in isolation or indulge in traditional vendor-customer relationships. The future of payments will likely be defined by a broader ecosystem which extends beyond banks and retailers, to include technology providers, regulators, fintech startups and consumers themselves. Success should be measured by the way companies access new technologies, reduce costs, share expertise, fill skill gaps, accelerate time to market, and mitigate risks,” said Isabelle Allen, Global Head of Consumer, Retail and Leisure at KPMG International.
KPMG said common goals across both sectors include the replacement of legacy payment infrastructure, enhancing fraud prevention and meeting customer expectations. High implementation costs and budget constraints were noted as the top barrier for those starting out on their payment journey (66% in banking and 69% in retail), while 62% in the banking sector also noted outdated legacy infrastructure and technical debt as a major frustration. As they mature their payments modernization capabilities, each sector highlighted meeting customer demand as the main concern (41% of banking leaders and 35% of retail leaders).
“On the retail side, hypermarkets and warehouse clubs report the highest levels of investment due to their high-volume, low-margin models, which rely on fast, efficient checkout processes. Online retailers also invest heavily to support their digital business models. At the same time, more traditional segments (such as department and specialty stores) invest less, likely reflecting limited budgets and customer preferences. Some of the biggest increases over the next year will be invested by those seeking to catch up; department and discount stores will boost spending by over 3%, while supermarkets are targeting increases of nearly 4%,” it said.
Ste-Catherine St. W. in Montreal. Photo: Apple Maps
Starting March 11, 2026, the Government of Quebec will implement a province-wide retail hours pilot that significantly loosens long-standing restrictions on weekend shopping hours. The initiative effectively ends the decades-old requirement for most retailers to close at 5:00 PM on Saturdays and Sundays, allowing participating merchants to remain open until 9:00 PM.
The Quebec retail hours pilot is designed to modernize the province’s regulatory framework and provide brick-and-mortar businesses with greater flexibility in competing against e-commerce platforms that operate around the clock. The measure applies across the province and is structured as a voluntary one-year trial.
Expanded Legal Window for Retailers
Under the current standard rules, most retail establishments must close by 5:00 PM on weekends and by 9:00 PM on weekdays. Beginning March 11, participating retailers may open as early as 6:00 AM daily and close as late as 9:00 PM, including Saturdays and Sundays. Weekday closing times remain unchanged at 9:00 PM.
Importantly, participation is voluntary. The pilot grants merchants the right to extend their hours, but it does not obligate them to do so. Individual retailers, shopping centres, and commercial districts will determine their schedules based on staffing levels, customer demand, and financial viability.
The changes primarily affect clothing boutiques, hardware stores, electronics retailers, and department stores. Grocery stores and pharmacies remain governed by separate exemptions that already permit more flexible operations. In addition, a parallel pilot project allows adult and erotic product stores to remain open until 11:00 PM daily.
Shein, Temu and the Competitive Landscape
The Quebec government has positioned the reform as a strategic response to global online competition. Officials have pointed to international e-commerce platforms such as Shein and Temu as examples of digital operators that never close, creating structural disadvantages for physical retailers constrained by legislated hours.
By harmonizing weekend closing times with weekday hours, policymakers aim to align shopping availability with contemporary consumer habits, particularly weekend evening demand. The government has also framed the move as part of a broader deregulatory agenda intended to reduce administrative burdens on entrepreneurs.
Quebec has historically been viewed as one of the few North American jurisdictions maintaining strict weekend retail closing rules. The pilot signals a shift toward greater flexibility while preserving key statutory holiday protections.
Lessons from 2025 Regional Trials
The province-wide rollout follows smaller-scale pilots conducted in 2025 in Laval, Gatineau, and Saint-Georges. In those regions, stores were permitted to remain open until 8:00 PM on weekends.
Results were mixed. Large shopping centres such as Carrefour Laval reportedly experienced stronger engagement, benefiting from coordinated participation and concentrated foot traffic. Standalone boutiques and smaller retailers faced more challenges, particularly when operating in isolation during extended hours.
Industry observers described what some called a “lonely shop” dynamic, where individual retailers struggled to justify extended hours if neighbouring businesses remained closed. The expanded provincial framework seeks to create a broader critical mass, increasing the likelihood that shoppers will expect and utilize later weekend hours.
Industry Support and Labour Concerns
The Retail Council of Canada has characterized the reform as a strong step toward greater commercial freedom. Supporters argue that the change reflects modern consumer expectations and provides merchants with tools to improve competitiveness.
However, labour unions and worker advocacy groups have raised concerns about work-life balance. Critics caution that students and part-time employees may face pressure to accept late weekend shifts. At the same time, proponents suggest the new hours could create additional employment opportunities during periods when students are more available to work.
Small business owners face a separate challenge. Extending hours may increase payroll costs without guaranteeing higher revenue. Some retailers worry about sales dilution, where the same number of customers shop over a longer period, reducing productivity per labour hour.
These competing perspectives will likely form part of the government’s evaluation during the one-year duration of the Quebec retail hours pilot.
Holiday Rules Remain Intact
Despite the expanded weekend framework, statutory holiday regulations remain unchanged. The extended hours apply every day of the week except public holidays.
Most retail establishments must continue to close on New Year’s Day, Easter Sunday, National Patriots’ Day or Victoria Day, St-Jean-Baptiste Day, Canada Day, Labour Day, Thanksgiving, and Christmas Day. Existing exemptions for small grocery stores, pharmacies, service stations, convenience stores, and designated tourist zones remain in effect.
For holidays that permit limited opening, reduced-hour mandates continue to apply. For example, on Boxing Day, most stores cannot open before 1:00 PM. On Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve, many retailers must close by 5:00 PM regardless of the new weekend allowance.
If a statutory holiday falls on a Saturday or Sunday, retailers should expect the holiday schedule to take precedence over the extended 9:00 PM closing time.
A One-Year Test with Data Collection
The pilot will run for one year, during which the government will collect data on consumer behaviour, business revenue performance, and employee satisfaction. Officials have indicated that permanent amendments to the Act respecting hours and days of admission to commercial establishments could follow if results demonstrate measurable benefits.
The voluntary structure remains central to the initiative. Merchants are not compelled to adjust their operations, and participation decisions will likely vary by region, store size, and labour availability.
The Quebec retail hours pilot represents a significant policy shift aimed at modernizing the province’s retail framework while balancing economic competitiveness with worker protections. Its long-term impact will depend on whether extended hours translate into stronger in-store sales, improved competitiveness against digital platforms, and sustainable operating models for retailers across Quebec.
Equifax Canada’s Q4 2025 Market Pulse Consumer Credit Trends and Insights data, which was released Tuesday, suggests a clear divergence in financial health across the country.
As 2025 came to a close, the pressures of a cooling labour market and persistent inflation led to a continued widening split in financial health: older consumers with higher credit scores showed resilience; while younger consumers and those in Ontario & Western provinces showed signs of financial weakening, explained Equifax.
“Total consumer debt climbed to $2.65 trillion in Q4 2025, a 3.13 per cent increase year-over-year, driven by a $50.26 billion rise in mortgage balances and a 4.50 per cent jump year-over-year in non-mortgage debt,” it said.
“Missed payments on non-mortgage debt peaked at the end of December, with 90+ day balance delinquency rising from 1.64 per cent to 1.73 per cent (a year-over-year increase of 5.43%).
“Consumers aged 26 to 35 years old showed the most acute increase in credit stress, posting the highest delinquency rate at 2.55 per cent and experiencing the most significant year-over-year decline in credit health with a rise of 8.39 per cent.”
Regional Divergence
Regionally, a picture of “two Canadas” emerged, with Ontario seeing the fastest acceleration in non-mortgage delinquency (up 10.31 per cent compared to Q4 2024) and Alberta solidifying its status as a “geo hotspot” with the highest overall non-mortgage balance missed payment rate (2.45 per cent). Regions with better housing affordability, such as Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Quebec, posted decreases in their delinquency rates, noted Equifax.
Rebecca Oakes
“Our data continues to show a clear divergence in how consumers in certain regions and demographic groups are managing income instability and high cost of living pressures,” said Rebecca Oakes, Vice-President, Advanced Analytics at Equifax Canada. “The good news is that for the most part, Canadians seem to be responding to these challenges in a credit-responsible way, with less holiday spend placed on credit cards this year.”
Credit Cards and Holiday Spending Pullback
Credit card spend over the 2025 holiday season was subdued compared to prior years. Inflation-adjusted card spending in December fell by 0.7 per cent year-over-year to $2,297, with the sharpest pullbacks seen in Western Canada (NWT -4.1 per cent, Alberta -3.0 per cent, BC -2.2 per cent). Younger consumers (aged 26-35) led this austerity, cutting holiday spending by 2.0 per cent, whereas older consumers (46+) continued to increase their spending. Despite this caution, credit card balances swelled to a historic $131 billion (+4.04 per cent), according to the report.
“The fourth quarter is typically where we see the largest growth in credit card balance with rising missed payments emerging in January,” added Oakes, “The pullback in spending helped to curb some of the holiday effect with around 30k fewer consumers missing a payment in January compared to 12 months ago.”
A Widening Gap in Borrowing Power
With continued economic uncertainty, lenders showed signs of tightening access to credit for riskier borrowers. Non-mortgage debt levels for Subprime consumers (scores 320-580) remained stagnant in Q4, while in contrast, Super Prime consumers (scores 751-880) saw their average non-mortgage debt grow by 6.1 per cent to $20,818, said Equifax.
“Lenders are seemingly reacting to higher credit losses caused by economic difficulties and increasing fraud in Canada by adjusting their credit approval policies as a risk mitigation measure,” said Oakes, “It is a good reminder for consumers to try and maintain a healthy credit score to ensure access to credit.”
Mortgage Renewals and Payment Shocks
Mortgage renewals continued to dominate the mortgage market in the fourth quarter, with total mortgage debt reaching $1.95 trillion, a 2.6 per cent increase year-over-year, according to the report.
www.kaboompics.com photo
While the Bank of Canada’s 2.25 per cent policy rate seemed to offer some relief to homeowners, housing affordability remained strained, particularly in high-priced regions like Ontario and British Columbia. Payment shocks from mortgage renewals continued to be a concern, prompting increased lender switching as consumers sought the best rates and lowest monthly payments. High mortgage balance remained a significant barrier to entry, with average new loan amounts climbing 4.1 per cent to $363,778. This burden was even heavier on first-time homebuyers, who saw their average new loan size grow 5 per cent to reach $441,301, explained Equifax
“Interest rate stabilization is appearing to have a positive impact on homeowners and the Canadian mortgage industry, however in hotter housing markets, affordability remains a concern” concluded Oakes. “We continue to see rising missed payments on higher value mortgages in Ontario as post renewal payment levels prove too high for some consumers.”
Age Group Analysis – Debt & Overall Balance Delinquency Rates (excluding mortgages)
AverageDebt(Q4 2025)
Average Debt ChangeYear-over-Year(Q4 2025 vs. Q4 2024)
90+ Delinquency Rate ($)(Q4 2025)
Delinquency Rate ChangeYear-over-Year(Q4 2025 vs. Q4 2024)
18-25
$8.832
3.60%
2.04%
2.23%
26-35
$17,550
0.16%
2.55%
8.39%
36-45
$27,228
0.53%
2.11%
5.29%
46-55
$35,041
1.29%
1.58%
7.14%
56-65
$29,961
4.27%
1.25%
4.80%
65+
$15,182
3.61%
1.16%
1.43%
Canada
$22,377
1.97%
1.73%
5.43%
Major City Analysis – Debt & Overall Balance Delinquency Rates (excluding mortgages)
City
AverageDebt(Q4 2025)
Average Debt ChangeYear-over-Year(Q4 2025 vs. Q4 2024)
90+ Delinquency Rate ($)(Q4 2025)
Delinquency Rate ChangeYear-over-Year(Q4 2025 vs. Q4 2024)
Today’s Retail Insider articles are listed below, followed by Canadian Retail News From Around the Web. Highlights include Loblaw’s $2.4 billion investment plan to open 70 new stores and renovate nearly 200 locations, showcasing major growth in Canadian grocery. Valentine’s Day spending surged 48% nationally, driven by a 457% jump at florists and increased restaurant sales. Amazon expanded Same-Day Delivery in key provinces, while AI adoption accelerates among top Canadian retailers, signaling the industry’s pivot to technology-driven efficiency and consumer engagement. These developments underscore ongoing transformation in retail operations and customer reach.
New data from Moneris indicates that Canadians marked the occasion in a meaningful way this year, driving gains across several retail and hospitality categories. According to the commerce provider, Valentine’s Day spending rose 48% week-over-week nationwide in 2026, reflecting strong engagement across florists, restaurants, grocery stores and jewellery retailers.
The figures compare spending during the week of Valentine’s Day, February 14, 2026, to the previous week. The results point to a broad-based uplift rather than isolated gains in a single segment.
“Moneris data shows that Canadians ramped up their spending on Valentine’s Day in 2026, with total national spend rising 48 per cent week-over-week. Increases across key categories like florists, restaurants and grocery stores signal a balanced approach, as Canadians combined dining out with at-home celebrations tied closely to the occasion,” said Sean McCormick, Vice President of Business Development, Data Services at Moneris.
Florists Lead the Charge with Triple-Digit Gains
Among all categories tracked, florists recorded the most dramatic growth. Nationwide, total spend at florists surged 457% compared to the previous week, while transaction counts climbed 505%.
The spike was visible across every province. Atlantic Canada posted an 861% increase in florist spend, followed by Quebec at 711% and British Columbia at 492%. Even in Alberta and Ontario, florist spending rose 399% and 366% respectively week-over-week.
The data underscores the enduring role of flowers as a core component of Valentine’s Day spending. The sharp rise in transaction volume suggests that demand was broad-based, with more consumers participating rather than simply higher average tickets alone.
Restaurants See Strong Week-Over-Week Growth
Dining out remained central to the occasion. Moneris reports that restaurant spending increased 44% nationwide compared to the prior week, while total transaction counts rose 22%.
Regionally, Atlantic Canada led with a 51% increase in total restaurant spend. Ontario followed at 48%, and Quebec posted a 47% gain. Alberta and British Columbia also saw solid growth at 38% and 39% respectively.
The transaction increases, coupled with higher total spend, indicate that both foot traffic and ticket sizes contributed to overall performance. Broader spend trend data shows that average transaction size also rose across regions during the Valentine’s period, reinforcing the premium nature of the occasion for many operators.
Grocery Spending Signals At-Home Celebrations
While restaurants captured a meaningful share of Valentine’s Day spending, grocery stores also benefited. Nationwide, grocery spending rose 37% week-over-week, with transaction counts up 32%.
The parallel growth in grocery and restaurant categories suggests that consumers blended experiences, combining dining out with home-based celebrations. For retailers and food merchants, this dual-channel behaviour reflects a broader consumer preference for flexibility and personalization in how special occasions are marked.
Moneris notes that the combination of increased restaurant and grocery spending indicates that Valentine’s Day continues to extend beyond a single meal or gift purchase.
Jewellery Shows Year-Over-Year Resilience
In addition to week-over-week category comparisons, Moneris examined year-over-year jewellery performance for Valentine’s Day 2026 compared to 2025. Nationally, total jewellery spend rose 17% year-over-year, although transaction counts declined 9%.
The provincial breakdown reveals notable variation. Ontario recorded a 31% increase in jewellery spend year-over-year, while Atlantic Canada saw a 52% gain. Alberta rose 20%, and Manitoba increased 33%. In contrast, Quebec and Saskatchewan experienced declines in both spend and transaction counts.
“Moneris data highlights how Valentine’s Day remained a powerful moment for certain categories, even in a softer year-over-year environment. Jewellery spending grew by 31 per cent in Ontario and more than 50 per cent in Atlantic Canada, demonstrating how meaningful gifting continues to strongly resonate at the provincial level,” said McCormick.
The divergence between higher spend and lower transaction counts nationally suggests larger average purchase values in some regions, potentially reflecting trading up behaviour among consumers seeking higher-quality or premium items.
A Meaningful Retail Moment in Early 2026
Taken together, the data positions Valentine’s Day spending as an important seasonal driver for Canadian merchants. The 48% week-over-week national increase underscores the continued relevance of occasion-based retail, even amid shifting consumer priorities.
Florists experienced the most pronounced surge, while restaurants and grocery operators both recorded meaningful gains. Jewellery, meanwhile, demonstrated resilience on a year-over-year basis in several key provinces.
For landlords, retailers and hospitality operators, the results reinforce the value of targeted seasonal merchandising, inventory planning and promotional alignment. Valentine’s Day continues to serve as a concentrated demand moment that can materially lift weekly performance across multiple categories.
