A quarterly consumer survey just released by financial services company Stifel suggests that spending intentions are moderating sequentially versus October 2025, with six categories down sequentially, out of the eight categories monitored.
“In almost all categories we monitor, female and low income respondents, as well as young shoppers (18-34yrs) show declining spending intentions. Overall, this survey paints a less exuberant picture of the Canadian consumer than in October 2025, perhaps due to (1) sustained trade tensions, (2) geopolitical tensions, (3) high food inflation and (4) slightly rising unemployment,” said the Stifel report.
“Nonetheless, 54% of respondents expect to increase their spending on discretionary items in the next twelve months, which is higher than the 51% average of the last 11 surveys.”
Here are the key findings of the Stifel report:
Consumer confidence dips slightly in January but remains healthy
Respondents to our survey may not be as enthusiastic as in October 2025 but nonetheless they do exhibit signs of confidence. For one, we are still in an expansionary mode with 54% of respondents expecting to increase their spending, and secondly January 2026 saw the second-largest differential between very likely respondents and very unlikely respondents. Hence, in our view, Canadian consumer confidence is still healthy but showing some signs of fatigue particularly with females and young shoppers.
Spending intentions for pet food and pet accessories remains healthy
73% of respondents expect to increase their spending on pet food and pet accessories in the coming year, higher than the average of 71% for the last 11 quarters, and firmly in an expansionary mode. According to our survey, spending intentions for pet food and pet accessories peaked in April 2025 at 76% and have been on a slight decline since.
Spending intentions at dollar stores decline.
70% of the respondents to our survey expect to increase their spending intentions at dollar stores in the next twelve months, slightly lower than the 72% average reading of the last 10 surveys. The decline appears broad based across several demographics categories such as male, female, young shoppers (18-34yrs). The dollar store category has been a very strong category for the last 3 years but seemed to have peaked in January 2025.
Powersports spending intentions remain strong
9% of our respondents are very likely to purchase or upgrade a powersports vehicle in the next 12 months, higher than the 7.8% average of the last four years. We saw strength in the high income consumer demographic as well as with young shoppers.
Spending intentions for furniture remains strong
58% of respondents expect to increase their spending on furniture in the next 12 months, down 70bps sequentially, but slightly higher than the 57% average of the last five quarters. Spending intentions for male respondents increased sequentially while they decreased for female respondents.
Spending intentions for toys reach new highs
64% of respondents expect to increase their spending on children toys in the next twelve months. This is a significant increase from the 55% average of the last 10 quarters. The significant rise in spending intentions is difficult to explain as it seems like an outlier vs the previous surveys. The increase comes from all demographics, but more importantly from females and low income consumers, both demographics showing much higher readings than historical levels.
Consumer air travel demand appears to be stable
According to our survey results, the appetite for air travel remains relatively stable, with the survey reporting a ~100bps decrease in the number of respondents indicating that they are ‘likely’ or ‘very likely’ to fly in the next 12-months for their next vacation. Within the proportion that are choosing to fly, however, there was an increase in price sensitivity, with a 4 point drop of those saying price had ‘no impact on their decision to travel’, and a three point increase in the share saying they would ‘downsize/decide not to travel’ due to rising airfares.
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