Concerns over high prices and economic uncertainty related to the trade conflict continue to have a negative impact on consumers, according to the Bank of Canada’s latest Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations.
The survey was conducted through an online panel from October 30 to November 18, 2025. Follow‑up phone interviews took place from November 21 to 27, 2025.
Overview
- In this quarter’s survey, consumers perceived a higher likelihood of missing a debt payment and a slightly greater chance of losing their job. In this context, consumers reported weaker spending plans. Still, they perceive a greater chance than last quarter of finding a job or voluntarily leaving their job.
- Expectations for near‑term inflation remain higher than they were before the pandemic, while those for long‑term inflation eased below pre‑pandemic levels. Tariffs are still the most frequently cited driver of inflation, although a little less so than last quarter.
- Overall, the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) indicator declined slightly and remains subdued in the fourth quarter. A modest deterioration in financial health and household spending intentions contributed to this drop, while labour market conditions improved slightly from low levels.
“The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) indicator remains weak this quarter. It has stayed well below its pre-pandemic average since late 2021, coinciding with ongoing perceptions that the cost of living is high. In recent quarters, the indicator and its components also remained below levels observed before the start of the trade conflict with the United States,” said the Bank.
“Consumers remain pessimistic about their financial health in the fourth quarter. Respondents reported a higher likelihood of missing a debt payment, and more than last quarter believe their financial situation has deteriorated. In follow-up interviews, one person who said their financial health had worsened added, “Almost everybody’s living on credit…. It’s something that’s going to be detrimental for households.”
“This heightened concern about missing a debt payment appears to be tied to consumers’ perceptions of a higher risk of losing their job.
“Consumers’ expectations for their financial situation vary according to their views on the impacts of the trade conflict. Half of consumers think the worst effects on the economy or inflation are still to come, and those consumers have the lowest expectations for their financial health. In follow‑up interviews, one of these respondents said, “The worst thing about the tariffs is the uncertainty.… Big businesses aren’t going to invest in anything big now because of uncertainty, and that affects jobs.”
Consistent with low expectations for their financial health and elevated concerns about the labour market, consumers’ spending plans continue to be weak, said the Bank.
The CSCE consumer spending index fell slightly, though it remains close to the levels observed since the trade conflict began. One respondent said, “It’s definitely tough for my family, and we have to budget more appropriately. We look for a discount and have to be more strategic—I purchase less wants and more needs.”
The top reported barriers to spending remain the same as in previous quarters:
- high prices of many goods and services
- economic uncertainty
- elevated housing costs
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