Rising tensions in the Middle East could push oil prices higher and create new challenges for retailers and consumers if the conflict persists, according to retail analyst Bruce Winder.
Winder said the war involving Iran is already disrupting energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a key corridor for global oil shipments. If the conflict continues for an extended period, he expects oil prices to remain elevated, increasing transportation and supply chain costs for manufacturers, importers and retailers.
Those higher costs could eventually feed into retail prices, contributing to inflation on store shelves. At the same time, Winder said higher fuel costs would reduce consumers’ disposable income, leaving households with less money for discretionary purchases as more of their budgets go toward gasoline and rising food prices.
He noted that ongoing global uncertainty — including geopolitical conflicts, shifting trade policies and recent economic shocks — makes it difficult for businesses to plan inventory, pricing and hiring. That uncertainty can also weaken consumer confidence and spending.
To manage the pressure, Winder said retailers are focusing on controlling costs and expanding private-label offerings while increasing promotions to help shoppers manage tighter budgets.
He added that value-oriented chains such as Dollarama and grocery banners like No Frills and Maxi may benefit as consumers increasingly seek lower-priced options.
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