As Canadians prepare for 2025, a survey conducted by Field Agent Canada reveals a pervasive sense of concern and caution among shoppers. Jeff Doucette, General Manager of Field Agent Canada, shared insights from the survey, highlighting key trends shaping the Canadian retail landscape.
“The Canadian shopper is concerned and cautious,” Doucette said. “They’re not super optimistic about what 2025 holds in terms of inflation, unemployment, and all that sort of stuff.”
According to Doucette, these sentiments were captured even before recent developments, such as the Trump tariffs, became more imminent. “There’ll be a shopper pessimism overall,” he noted.
Costco’s Growing Role as a Grocery Destination
One of the standout findings from the survey is the growing importance of Costco as a grocery destination. “Canadians see Costco as a grocery store,” Doucette emphasized. “With 110 buildings in Canada, they are attracting huge numbers of people. For a lot of families, it’s their first stop for groceries.”
Costco’s popularity reflects broader consumer priorities. “Consumers are definitely trying to make their dollars go further,” Doucette said. “As inflation continues to outpace wage growth, shoppers are increasingly focused on cost.”
Walmart and Dollarama: Value-Driven Retailers Thrive
The survey also highlighted Walmart as a key player in grocery retail, ranking just behind Costco. “Walmart and Costco—two retailers not traditionally considered grocery stores—are the top choices for stock-up trips,” Doucette observed.
Another surprising trend is the rise of dollar stores as grocery options. “For six per cent of Canadians to have a dollar store in their top three grocery retailers is pretty significant,” Doucette said. “Dollarama has made impressive inroads in this space, offering great items at great prices.”
“They’re super smart retailers. If I could go back in a time machine and buy one retail stock, it would be Dollarama. They’re awesome at what they do and still have tons of room for growth, especially in Western Canada.”
The Role of Loyalty Programs
While price remains a top factor for grocery shopping, loyalty programs also play a significant role in shaping consumer behavior. “At 46%, loyalty programs are the number two driver of grocery chain choice,” Doucette pointed out. “In the dynamic of Costco and Walmart don’t have loyalty programs, so the deciding factor of that third store where consumers go for fresh produce, unique items or quick trips, is PC Optimum, Scene Plus, or Air Miles or whatever that might be. They also drive the costs down through the points offers and collecting points.”
Adapting to Changing Shopper Behavior
Retailers must adapt to these changing dynamics, Doucette advised. “Shoppers are willing to go out of their way for value,” he said. “Even Costco, traditionally a stock-up destination, is now being considered for quick trips.”
Despite the challenges ahead, Doucette remains optimistic about the resilience and adaptability of Canadian retailers. “It’s an interesting dynamic,” he concluded. “Retailers who understand the importance of cost, value, and loyalty will continue to thrive in this environment.”
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