As families begin back-to-school shopping, retailers and consumers alike are quietly grappling with the ripple effects of the latest tariff wave.
David Warrick, EVP at Overhaul, a supply chain risk management company, who previously led global supply chain operations at Microsoft, is advising companies on supply chain risk and resilience at Overhaul, working directly with brands, carriers, and retailers facing tariff-related impacts.
“We’re starting to see price creep on everyday items—including school supplies—but the full impact of tariffs will likely cascade in phases. This growing pressure is driven by a mix of rising raw material costs, tariff exposure on components, and supply-demand imbalances created by uncertainty. School staples like backpacks, lunchboxes, pencils, tech accessories, and even glue sticks are particularly vulnerable, as they often rely on imported inputs—zippers from China, dyes and plastics from Southeast Asia, or packaging from Europe. Many of these categories are caught in the crossfire of the latest tariff expansions, and we’re expecting an average price increase of 12–15% across back-to-school essentials,” he said.
“Retailers have done a solid job front-loading inventory to delay price spikes—so for now, many shelves still reflect pre-tariff costs. But that buffer may run out by late summer or early fall. Sharper increases could land then or into early next year, depending on how long tariffs remain and whether additional goods are affected. Consumers should look for early signs: a name-brand notebook that’s 15% pricier than last year, fewer “3 for $1” deals, or school supply bundles with fewer items inside.”
Some of the most heavily impacted product areas include apparel and footwear—costing more to outfit kids for school—as well as electronics like laptops and calculators, where fluctuating semiconductor and component tariffs have raised costs by as much as 30% in some categories, added Warrick.
“Retailers may also quietly eliminate low-margin SKUs—like generic binders or budget pencil cases—due to shrinking profit potential under higher sourcing costs. That could mean fewer ultra-low-cost options, especially at discount and big-box stores,” he said.
“Supply is another challenge. Many retailers held off ordering due to tariff uncertainty, which softened manufacturing output earlier this year. Now, as demand ramps up, availability is tighter—adding yet another layer of inflationary pressure. Tariffs have disrupted traditional ordering cycles, turning once-routine procurement into a last-minute scramble that’s more expensive to execute.
“If parents want to avoid the brunt of any price increases, the smart move is to shop early while legacy inventory is still in circulation. You may also see some “tariff-beating” bundles as retailers move older stock—but overall, expect prices to rise steadily through the season. It’s less about one big sticker shock and more of a slow tightening of value—smaller packages, higher unit prices, and fewer markdowns.”
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This reads like an article directed at American consumers. While Canadians will pay more for items imported from or containing components made in the U.S., a more useful discussion would be about the impact on Canadian consumers and point to items, whether made in Canada or elsewhere, that are tariff-free.
This makes no sense. We do not have import tariff on chinese , south east asia and Euro goods. Lap tops from China or a samsung product landed in Vancouver does not have tariffs? This article is for Americans.