Canadians’ spending intentions reached new highs in September, according to Stifel Nicolaus Canada Inc.’s latest consumer survey. The quarterly research, conducted with 300 respondents across the country, revealed that 58 percent of Canadians expect to increase their discretionary spending over the next year, a 300-basis point increase compared to July 2025.
The results mark the highest reading across the last ten surveys, underlining a broader sense of optimism among consumers despite ongoing global and domestic challenges. Notably, 17 percent of Canadians indicated they are very likely to increase discretionary spending, the strongest level seen in two years.
The increase was driven largely by female consumers, younger demographics, and lower-income households. Ontario residents recorded the highest spending intentions of the year at 58 percent, while Quebec saw the most dramatic sequential rise, increasing by 400 basis points.
According to the report, prepared by Martin Landry, Managing Director at Stifel, alongside Daryl Young, Jesse Kestenbaum, and Nicholas Ward, the results provide “an accurate snapshot of the state of the Canadian consumer.” Historically, the firm notes, these survey findings have been a reliable indicator of the financial performance of companies under its coverage.
Holiday Shopping Outlook Turns Expansionary
One of the report’s most striking findings was the shift in holiday spending sentiment. For the first time in four years, a majority of Canadians (51 percent) expect to increase their holiday shopping budgets, up 200 basis points year-over-year.
The upward momentum was driven in part by female respondents, whose spending intentions rose by 700 basis points compared to last year. Higher-income households also contributed to the expansionary trend, recording a 400-basis point increase. Male respondents, however, recorded a 300-basis point decline.
This development suggests that holiday shopping in 2025 may be stronger than in recent years, a positive sign for retailers across a wide range of categories. The Stifel survey positions this as a potential turning point, with holiday shopping moving into “expansionary mode”.
A Strong ‘Buy Canadian’ Sentiment
The survey also highlighted a notable cultural and political trend: the willingness of Canadians to support domestic brands amid ongoing trade tensions with the United States. One-third of respondents said they would be willing to pay more for Canadian-made products than for comparable imported alternatives.
A broader 83 percent of Canadians said they are more inclined to purchase Canadian-made goods in general, with younger demographics particularly motivated. The report notes that 100 percent of respondents aged 18 to 34 expressed concern about product origin, underscoring the importance of local identity for Gen Z and Millennials.
This sentiment is a positive indicator for well-known domestic retailers and manufacturers, including Aritzia, Dollarama, Leon’s Furniture, Groupe Dynamite, Pet Valu, and BRP.
Apparel Spending Shows Positive Momentum
The apparel category continues to be a key driver of Canadians’ spending intentions. According to the survey, 53 percent of respondents expect to increase their spending on clothing and apparel over the next 12 months, representing a 200-basis point sequential increase.
This figure is also 180 basis points higher than the average recorded across the last ten surveys, signaling above-trend momentum in the fashion space. Growth was particularly strong among young consumers and lower-income households, both of which recorded significant gains in spending expectations.
While female respondents showed a slight 200-basis point sequential decline, their intentions still remain 200 basis points above historical averages, suggesting a stable outlook for the segment. Brands such as Aritzia, Groupe Dynamite, and Gildan stand to benefit from these shifting consumer dynamics.
Dollar Stores See Record High Spending Intentions
Perhaps the most dramatic result in the September survey came from the dollar store channel. Seventy-eight percent of Canadians said they are likely or very likely to increase their spending at dollar stores in the next year, the highest level recorded since Stifel began tracking the category.
The proportion of consumers who expect to significantly increase their spending rose by 800 basis points, with notable growth among high-income respondents and male consumers. The report highlights that high-income Canadians, in particular, appear more comfortable shopping at dollar stores, attracted by their value proposition and increasingly clean, organized store environments.
For Dollarama, the country’s dominant player in the segment, these findings underscore ongoing growth opportunities in both urban and suburban markets.
Pet Food Spending Remains Elevated, Shifts Online
The pet category continues to reflect resilience. According to the survey, 75 percent of Canadians expect to increase spending on pet food in the coming year, consistent with results from earlier this year.
While there was a 400-basis point decline in spending intentions among female consumers, young shoppers, and high-income households, this was offset by a similar increase among older consumers aged 55 and up.
Perhaps most significant is the growing shift to e-commerce in this category. Fifty-four percent of respondents now purchase pet food online, up dramatically from 33 percent in January 2023. The growth was especially pronounced among lower-income households, whose online adoption surged by 3,900 basis points. Retailers in the category can no longer afford to ignore online channels if they wish to remain competitive.
Furniture and Appliances See Rebound
The furniture and appliances sector also showed encouraging signs of recovery. Fifty-eight percent of Canadians expect to increase their spending on furniture or appliances over the next 12 months, the highest reading across the last four surveys.
The rebound was driven by sharp increases among low-income households and male respondents, each recording a 1,300-basis point rise. For retailers such as Leon’s Furniture, this trend points to renewed opportunities in the home category following several years of subdued growth.
Toys, Powersports, and Other Categories
The survey found that spending intentions for toys remain stable, with 54 percent of respondents expecting to increase spending on children’s products, in line with historical averages. Interestingly, respondents aged 55 and older recorded a 700-basis point increase, suggesting that grandparents may play a growing role in toy purchases.
In the powersports category, 8.7 percent of Canadians indicated they are very likely to purchase or upgrade a vehicle such as an ATV, snowmobile, or motorcycle within the next 12 months. This result is above historical averages and reflects particularly strong intentions among older and male consumers, offsetting a slight decline among female and high-income respondents.
Protein Consumption Continues to Grow
A broader health and wellness trend also emerged from the September survey. Sixty percent of Canadians said they are likely to increase their protein intake over the next year, with younger shoppers showing the strongest momentum at 77 percent.
The report attributes part of this growth to rising interest in healthy, active lifestyles, along with the influence of GLP-1 drugs, which are reshaping dietary habits. This development is particularly positive for Canadian food producers such as Maple Leaf Foods and Premium Brands.
Artificial Intelligence in Purchasing Decisions
Artificial intelligence has become an increasingly common factor in Canadian shopping behaviour. The survey found that 54 percent of Canadians have used AI for purchasing decisions, with 74 percent of younger respondents leading adoption.
However, the future of AI in retail may be less certain. Just 45 percent of Canadians indicated they intend to continue using AI tools for shopping, leaving a majority (55%) hesitant about its long-term role in their purchasing decisions. Younger consumers, despite their high current usage, are also cautious, with only 46 percent planning to continue leveraging AI in the future.
The report suggests that retailers and consumer goods companies will need to consider these evolving behaviours in order to engage effectively with both tech-savvy and hesitant shoppers.
Air Travel Demand Stable but Cost Sensitive
The September survey also examined Canadians’ intentions around travel. Results indicate that demand for air travel remains mostly stable, with 58 percent of respondents likely or very likely to fly in the next 12 months, a modest increase from July.
Interestingly, the increase was driven by lower-income households, which saw a significant rise in their likelihood to travel. Higher-income households, by contrast, recorded a decline, reflecting shifting dynamics within the category.
At the same time, the cost of airfare continues to weigh heavily on consumer decisions. More respondents indicated they downsized or cancelled travel plans due to high airfare costs, a metric that increased by 600 basis points compared to July.
Implications for Canadian Retailers
The September findings highlight a broad-based optimism among Canadian consumers, with spending intentions rising across discretionary categories such as apparel, dollar stores, and furniture. The strength of holiday shopping expectations, coupled with the willingness to pay more for Canadian-made products, offers retailers a supportive environment heading into the final quarter of the year.
For investors and retail executives, the report provides meaningful signals. Stifel analysts note that companies such as Dollarama, Aritzia, Groupe Dynamite, Gildan, Maple Leaf Foods, BRP, and Air Canada are well positioned to benefit from these trends. Results were described as mixed for Pet Valu and slightly negative for Spin Master, given stable or declining momentum in pet and toy spending respectively.
Conclusion
Stifel’s September consumer survey paints a picture of renewed confidence in Canadian households. With record-high discretionary spending intentions, stronger holiday shopping outlooks, and ongoing trends in health, localism, and technology, retailers face both opportunities and challenges in the months ahead.
The willingness of Canadians to embrace both domestic products and value-driven formats such as dollar stores illustrates the diverse ways in which consumer behaviour is evolving. At the same time, issues such as airfare costs and hesitancy toward AI adoption underscore areas of caution.
For retailers, manufacturers, and investors alike, the survey serves as a timely barometer of market conditions. With Canadians’ spending intentions reaching historic highs, the stage is set for an active retail landscape heading into 2026.
