As the final days of the holiday shopping season unfold, fresh data suggests that Canadian retailers should brace for a restrained finish to 2025. Insights shared by David Ian Gray point to a consumer base that remains disciplined, fatigued, and increasingly skeptical of promotional activity. The findings are based on the annual December shopper survey conducted with Angus Reid Group, a study that tracks last-minute gifting and Boxing Week expectations beyond anecdotal observation.
Gray notes that the traditional Canadian pattern of a sharp in-store surge during the final weekend before December 24 has now passed. Attention has shifted to last-minute gifting and preparations for Boxing Day and Boxing Week, which historically differ from U.S. holiday dynamics. However, expectations for a meaningful spending rebound appear muted this year, reinforcing a continued sober Canadian holiday retail outlook as the year comes to a close.
Budget Discipline and Shopper Fatigue Dominate
According to Gray, financial restraint continues to shape consumer behaviour across income levels. He observes that “budget discipline remains strong across income levels, with only 17% reporting impulsive holiday spending.” The data also shows that shoppers spent less than last year during Black Friday and devoted less time to searching for deals, suggesting that deal fatigue is becoming entrenched.
Gray adds that while Boxing Week may provide some activity driven by gift card redemption, it is unlikely to deliver a significant lift in overall spending. “Will shopping be seen as a low-pressure distraction? Or are consumers fatigued and looking for downtime?” he asks, noting that Boxing Day is expected to be busy but characterized by limited per-visit spend rather than robust basket growth.
Promotions Lose Urgency and Credibility
One of the most consistent findings in the survey is growing skepticism toward retail promotions. Gray reports that “79% rated holiday deals as ‘mediocre’ or ‘poor,’ a consistent trend since 2023.” The distinction between major promotional events has also eroded, with 91% of respondents seeing no meaningful difference between Cyber Monday and Black Friday.
Early Boxing Day promotions, some of which began before December 20, appear to have reinforced the perception that urgency is largely manufactured. Gray notes that many consumers are opting to wait rather than react quickly, a shift that complicates traditional end-of-year promotional strategies and further dampens expectations within the Canadian holiday retail outlook.
Buying Canadian Matters, But Only to a Point
Support for Canadian-made and Canadian-sold products remains strong in principle, yet price sensitivity continues to override patriotic intent. While 78% of respondents say buying Canadian is important, Gray highlights that 35% still purchased from international websites, a figure unchanged from the past two years. What might be different is an avoid-US sentiment.
“‘Buy Canadian’ is indeed a valuable tie-breaker, but only when price and quality and availability are acceptable,” Gray explains. When those conditions are met, national branding can still be effective in the final stretch of the season. “We must remember many holiday-centred items, like electronics, do not have domestic substitutes.”
However, smaller independent retailers face mounting challenges. Heavy promotional noise from larger players makes it difficult for local brands to stand out, suggesting a difficult finish for independents hoping to close the year on a strong note.
Marketing Efficiency Under the Microscope
The survey also sheds light on which marketing channels are breaking through and which are falling short. Canadians continue to notice social media and YouTube advertising, yet these formats are proving less persuasive at the point of purchase. Interestingly, mailed flyers gained increased visibility, with 36% noticing them compared to 27% in 2024, although this awareness did not translate into higher sales.
Despite widespread claims of inbox fatigue, email remains the most effective sales channel, particularly when paired with clear and consistent in-store signage. Gray also points to emerging behaviour that retailers should not ignore, noting that 13% of shoppers are now actively using AI tools to research products and compare prices.
In the short term, he advises retailers to focus on targeted email campaigns and aligned in-store messaging through December 24 and into Boxing Week, a tactic that aligns closely with current realities in the Canadian holiday retail outlook.
Operational Performance Shows Improvement
There is, however, some positive news on the operational front. While 18% of respondents reported errors in their Black Friday online orders, Gray notes that overall service levels and in-stock positions have improved both online and in-store since 2023. “There is significant room for improvement, but this is trending the right way,” he says, suggesting that operational investments made over the past year are beginning to show results.
These improvements may not drive incremental spending in the short term, but they contribute to longer-term trust and satisfaction, factors that will matter as retailers plan for 2026 and beyond.
Recognizing Frontline Contributions
Gray closes his observations with a reminder of the human element behind the data. “A shoutout to the frontline workers at this time,” he says. “You are often underappreciated, but you are so vital to the business and to Canadian shoppers.” As retailers navigate a challenging end to the year, the role of frontline staff remains central to delivering consistent service during one of the most demanding periods on the retail calendar.
Taken together, the survey findings reinforce a measured and cautious Canadian holiday retail outlook. With disciplined consumers, diminished promotional urgency, and modest expectations for Boxing Day uplift, retailers are finishing 2025 akin to 2024 and in a markedly different environment than in years past, one that places a premium on efficiency, clarity, and trust rather than sheer promotional volume.
