A new global study from the IBM Institute for Business Value says most senior executives expect artificial intelligence to become a significant source of revenue by the end of the decade, even as many acknowledge they lack clarity on how those gains will be realized.
The research found that 79 per cent of surveyed executives expect AI to contribute significantly to their revenue by 2030, compared with 40 per cent today. However, only 24 per cent of respondents said they have a clear view of where that future revenue will come from.
Investment rising amid execution concerns
Despite uncertainty around outcomes, executives surveyed expect investment in AI to accelerate sharply. Respondents predicted AI investment will increase by about 150 per cent between now and 2030.
At the same time, the study found widespread concern about execution risks. Sixty-eight per cent of executives surveyed said they worry their AI initiatives will fail because they are not sufficiently integrated with core business activities.
“AI won’t just support businesses, it will define them,” said Mohamad Ali, senior vice-president of IBM Consulting. “By 2030, the companies that win will weave AI into every decision and operation. They will own powerful AI assets, move faster than competitors, bring innovations to market quickly, and deliver real, measurable business results using technology and automation.”
Findings from global executive survey
The study is based on responses from more than 2,000 C-suite executives and examines how organizations expect to evolve between 2025 and 2030. According to IBM, the findings suggest AI is emerging as a central driver of enterprise growth, but that many organizations face a gap between expectations and outcomes.
The research points to a shift in how executives expect to deploy AI spending over time, moving away from efficiency-focused uses toward innovation-led strategies.
Key findings include:
- While nearly half, or 47 per cent, of current AI spending is focused on efficiency, respondents expect 62 per cent of AI spending to be dedicated to innovation by 2030.
- Sixty-four per cent of surveyed executives said that by 2030, competitive advantage will come from innovation rather than resource optimization.
- Seventy per cent said they plan to reinvest value generated from AI-powered productivity gains into growth initiatives.
- Respondents expect AI to boost productivity by 42 per cent by 2030, with 67 per cent expecting to capture most AI-enabled productivity gains by that time.
Technology choices and competitive advantage
The study also highlights uncertainty around the specific technologies executives believe will underpin future competitive advantage.
While 57 per cent of surveyed executives said their competitive edge will come from AI model sophistication, only 28 per cent said they have a clear view of which AI models their organizations will need by 2030.
Other findings related to technology strategy include:
- Eighty-two per cent of respondents expect their AI capabilities to be multi-model by 2030, while 72 per cent expect small language models to surpass large language models.
- Organizations that are scaling AI across multiple workflows using smaller, custom and foundation AI models anticipate 24 per cent greater productivity gains and 55 per cent higher operating margins by 2030.
- While 59 per cent of respondents said quantum-enabled AI will transform their industry by 2030, only 27 per cent expect their organizations to be using quantum computing by then.
IBM said this gap between expectations and adoption highlights potential opportunity for organizations prepared to invest earlier.
Impact on leadership and workforce
The research suggests executives also expect AI to significantly reshape leadership structures and workforce requirements over the next several years.
By 2030, surveyed executives expect that 25 per cent of enterprise boards will include an AI advisor or co-decision-maker. In addition, 74 per cent said AI will redefine leadership roles across the enterprise, with two-thirds believing AI will create entirely new leadership positions.
Workforce disruption is also expected to accelerate. According to the study:
- Sixty-seven per cent of respondents said job roles are becoming shorter-lived.
- Fifty-seven per cent expect most current employee skills to be obsolete by 2030.
- Sixty-seven per cent agreed that mindset will matter more than skills.
- Sixty-seven per cent also expect AI to eliminate the resource and skills constraints that currently limit their organizations.
IBM said its analysis shows organizations that position themselves as AI-first are 48 per cent more likely to create net-new job roles and 46 per cent more likely to redesign their organizational structures to generate greater value from AI.
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