The Canadian economy is expected to see slow growth in Q3 and Q4 2025, finds the Canadian Federation of Independent Business’s (CFIB) latest Main Street Quarterly report.
Key highlights of the Q3 2025 edition of the Main Street Quarterly report
- CFIB’s estimates and forecasts in partnership with AppEco suggest Canadian economy grew by 0.8% in Q3 2025 and will continue growing at a slow pace of 0.2% in Q4. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is expected to remain stable for the rest of the year.
- The national private sector job vacancy rate remained steady at 2.8% in Q3 2025. This represents 391,100 unfilled positions.
- Amid ongoing uncertainty, private investment estimates point to a 3.7% decline in Q3 and a further contraction of 4.5% in Q4.
- Retail sales declined in Q3 by 0.2% and are forecast to grow by 1.8% in Q4, which is far below the historical average.
- A special analysis this edition focused on the Buy Canadian movement. Over four in 10 (43%) businesses ran buy-local campaigns, with almost two-thirds (61%) reporting higher sales of Canadian products. However, only 15% saw increases in revenues and even fewer, 9%, saw a boost in profit due to high costs and soft demand.
- The quarterly sectoral profile reveals that goods-producing and service-offering businesses have become less optimistic since Q1 2025, but the latter have recovered faster, and their confidence level surpasses the all-industries average.
“While some of the trade turmoil is easing and inflation is more under control, considerable economic uncertainty remains, along with various headaches for Canadian businesses. These subpar conditions explain why our estimates and forecasts for the second half of 2025 show a weak GDP, retail sales, labour market and investment picture,” said CFIB’s chief economist and vice-president of research, Simon Gaudreault.
“Despite unfavourable signals, small business owners are hoping for a better-than-expected final stretch for 2025 and a solid foundation to enter the new year. Positive signals in the upcoming federal budget coupled with strong holiday sales could certainly help on that front.”
The CFIB is Canada’s largest association of small and medium-sized businesses with 100,000 members across every industry and region.
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