Canada’s Resources at Risk Amid U.S. Economic Pressure

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March 1, 2025

image - 2025-03-01T192108.905 — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump in a heated discussion at the Oval Office, February 28, 2025. Photo: White House

The scene in the Oval Office last week between President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Donald Trump was deeply unsettling. The geopolitical ramifications remain uncertain, but one thing is clear: peace in Eastern Europe may have drifted even further out of reach. For global food security, stability in that region is critical, and the current trajectory suggests an increasingly bleak outlook for Ukraine and its ability to regain economic and agricultural footing.

What has transpired in negotiations between Ukraine and the United States under the new administration should serve as a stark warning to Canada. While the rhetoric surrounding Canada as the so-called “51st state” may be irritating and dismissive, what could unfold in the coming months is far more concerning.

The United States has leveraged Ukraine’s desperate need for support to secure access to its valuable mineral resources, all while using peace as a diplomatic cover. The global community has now witnessed a new form of economic coercion—offering military and financial assistance with explicit expectations of resource control in return. This is not diplomacy; this is a transactional power play. And Canada must take note.

Canada’s Position in the Face of Global Silence

While international leaders have stepped up to defend the sovereignty of nations like Panama and Greenland, Canada has not received the same level of support. Not one global leader has spoken out against President Trump’s recent inflammatory statements about Canada’s status. Even British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, while in Washington this week, avoided commenting on Canada’s sovereignty when directly asked. That silence is telling.

Canada’s political class has thus far responded to the “51st state” rhetoric with nothing more than performative indignation. The idea that the United States would formally annex Canada is absurd. The U.S. has no need to assume the burden of governing Canada when it can simply extract value from our vast wealth of resources through economic and trade policy.

As Lloyd Axworthy, Canada’s former foreign minister, recently pointed out, a country can exert control over another without outright annexation. This can be achieved through strategic access to three fundamental assets: natural resources, energy, and data. From a food security perspective, these are the pillars of a resilient agri-food sector. Canada is uniquely positioned as a world leader in all three, making it a prime target for foreign influence.

Water, potash, and oil are among Canada’s most valuable resources—resources the United States desperately needs to sustain its economic dominance. However, an often-overlooked asset in this equation is data. Canada’s agri-food sector is undergoing a transformation, with advanced data analytics driving efficiency, sustainability, and resilience. The United States understands that enhanced access to Canada’s agricultural data and biotechnological expertise could propel its own agricultural sector far beyond its current capabilities.

The Real Threat: Economic and Geopolitical Maneuvering

Canadians can worry about symbolic threats of annexation, but the real concern should be the looming economic and geopolitical maneuvering that could compromise our strategic resources. The coming months may bring further challenges, and Canada’s political landscape is poised for change. However, whoever takes the helm must move beyond mere anti-annexation rhetoric and reactionary trade measures. The priority should be safeguarding Canada’s competitive advantages—its resources, energy independence, and agri-food data.

Rejecting American products and boycotting American tourism may offer short-term emotional satisfaction, but such gestures will not shield Canada from a White House that plays geopolitical chess while Ottawa remains stuck playing checkers. The real defense against economic subjugation is a proactive strategy to fortify the industries that make Canada a global leader in food security and sustainability.

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Bel Canada, Congebec Partner to Tackle Food Waste in Quebec

By

Maya Johnson

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March 1, 2025

Moisson Laurentides 8 - credit Sonia Daviault

Bel Canada, a key player in the food industry specializing in dairy, fruit, and vegetable products, has partnered with Congebec, Canada’s leading logistics provider for chilled and frozen foods, and Food Banks of Quebec (FBQ) to launch a groundbreaking initiative focused on reducing food waste and supporting food-insecure communities. The strategic alliance aligns with Bel Canada and Congebec’s shared commitment to optimizing the food supply chain while addressing growing food insecurity across the province.

“At Bel Group, our mission is to provide healthy and responsible food for everyone. We are proud of the tangible measures we have implemented to achieve our goal of zero product destruction in our Canadian operations, particularly at our Babybel® manufacturing plant in Sorel-Tracy,” said Marie-Eve Robert, VP of Marketing and CSR at Bel Canada. “More than 46% of food is wasted every year in Canada.”

“The program, in collaboration with Congebec and Food Banks of Quebec, will play a key role in the fight against food waste and insecurity while optimizing the performance of our supply chain. As a sector leader, we hope our commitment will encourage other companies to join this great collaboration.”

Congebec’s Unique Role in Food Recovery and Redistribution

Congebec has spearheaded this initiative by leveraging its extensive logistics expertise to recover unsellable but edible food from the supply chain. The program operates in three strategic phases: offering free storage space to the Food Banks of Quebec, encouraging its customers to participate in food recovery, and providing logistics support to ensure optimal redistribution of surplus products.

“Our expertise in logistics and freezing is unique in the food supply chain, and that is why we are committed to supporting the food aid network to preserve food and enable its optimal distribution,” stated Nicholas-P. Pedneault, CEO of Congebec. “Since the official announcement of our partnership with Food Banks of Quebec in 2023, the impact on our communities in terms of food aid and through our crucial role in preventing food waste has been strongly felt. The freezing services we offer give food banks access to high-value products like Bel Canada’s. Through this new partnership, we want to demonstrate that, as a corporate citizen, we have an important role to play in the fight against food waste and food insecurity.”

Bénévoles en action. Photo: Bel Canada

Surging Food Insecurity in Quebec

The need for food assistance in Quebec has surged in recent years. According to FBQ, food aid requests have increased by 13% since 2023, with over one million additional requests since 2021. Alarmingly, 35% of food bank beneficiaries are children, while 36% are adults living alone, and 20% are individuals with employment as their primary income source.

“Since 2019, requests have been increasing at an unprecedented rate. Our members are doing everything they can to meet the demand. Unfortunately, we do not see any signs of a slowdown that would suggest a brighter future, and the Aviseo study confirms this,” said Martin Munger, Executive Director of Food Banks of Quebec. “We strongly believe that collaboration is the key to fighting food insecurity, which is why this innovative partnership with Bel Canada and Congebec is so valuable. We hope this initiative will encourage other companies and industry leaders to join us.”

About Bel Canada

Bel Canada is a subsidiary of the Bel Group, a global leader in branded cheese and healthy snacks, distributing its products in nearly 120 countries. Established in 2005 to expand the Group’s presence in Canada, the company now employs 250 people, including 95 at its Montreal headquarters. Its brands, including Boursin®, The Laughing Cow®, and Babybel®, are either produced locally or through strategic partnerships. Additionally, Bel Canada owns MOM Group, the company behind GoGo squeeZ® fruit pouches.

About Congebec

Congebec is a multi-temperature logistics provider specializing in value-added distribution services for the food, retail, and packaged goods industries. The company ranks seventh in North America and 13th globally in its field, with 11 modern facilities spanning Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta, totaling over 65 million cubic feet of storage. Committed to food safety and sustainability, Congebec plays a pivotal role in Canada’s food supply chain.

About Food Banks of Quebec

The Food Banks of Quebec (FBQ) network supports 34 regional food distribution centres, many of which operate under the Moisson name, assisting 1,300 community organizations across the province. These organizations provide food aid to over 556,000 people each month. Since its establishment in 1988, FBQ has facilitated the sharing of resources, expertise, and information to combat hunger and food insecurity.

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Mejuri Opens Laval Store, Expanding Canadian Presence

By

Craig Patterson

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February 28, 2025

7460 Mejuri_Laval store_21022025_0040 — Mejuri at CF Carrefour Laval in Montreal. Photo supplied

Toronto-based fine jewelry brand Mejuri has expanded its Canadian retail footprint with the opening of a new store at CF Carrefour Laval in Laval, Quebec. This marks the brand’s 41st store globally and its latest move to enhance accessibility for customers in the Greater Montreal area.

Mejuri’s opening at CF Carrefour Laval aligns with its strategy to establish a presence in high-traffic shopping destinations. As one of Quebec’s premier retail centres, CF Carrefour Laval offers a strong customer base of both local shoppers and visitors from surrounding areas.

The Laval location is the latest in Mejuri’s growing network of physical stores, reflecting the brand’s continued investment in brick-and-mortar retail to complement its strong e-commerce platform. The store offers an inviting space where customers can engage with expert stylists and explore collections tailored for everyday luxury.

A Unique Retail Experience with Thoughtful Design

The new Mejuri store is designed to provide a high-end yet welcoming atmosphere, prioritizing hospitality and customer engagement. A key feature of the Laval location is the Mejuri Ring Bar, an interactive space where customers can explore, style, and personalize their jewelry selections. The space is accentuated by elegant tile finishes and an artistic lighting installation that enhances the brand’s distinctive aesthetic.

Further elevating the customer experience, the store incorporates a textured plaster wall inspired by Mejuri’s iconic Charlotte pattern. This handcrafted element embraces an intentionally imperfect style, adding depth and tactile richness to the space. The store also features a full-service piercing studio, allowing customers to curate their ear stacks with Mejuri’s signature fine jewelry in a seamless, elevated experience.

Large-scale imagery and illuminated graphics throughout the store reinforce the brand’s storytelling, creating an immersive retail environment that embodies Mejuri’s dedication to craftsmanship and individuality.

Jeff Berkowitz of Aurora Realty Consultants negotiated the lease deal on behalf of Mejuri. Cadillac Fairview is the landlord of CF Carrefour Laval.

Mejuri at CF Carrefour Laval in Montreal. Photo supplied

A Look at Mejuri’s Brand Philosophy and Growth

Founded in 2015 by Noura Sakkijha and Majed Masad, Mejuri has redefined the fine jewelry market by positioning itself as a brand for everyday luxury. Moving away from the traditional model of gifting fine jewelry, Mejuri encourages self-purchasing, empowering customers to invest in high-quality, accessible pieces for daily wear.

The company’s product offerings include a wide range of rings, earrings, necklaces, and bracelets, crafted from 14K solid gold, sterling silver, and gold vermeil. Sustainability is a key focus for the brand, with 94% of its gold sourced from recycled materials and all diamonds being responsibly sourced and conflict-free.

Leveraging Omnichannel Growth and Community Engagement

Mejuri has successfully built a strong online and offline presence, leveraging social media and influencer marketing to cultivate an engaged community. While it initially gained traction as a digital-first brand, its strategic expansion into physical retail has strengthened its ability to offer customers a tactile shopping experience.

The opening of new stores, including the Laval location, reinforces Mejuri’s omnichannel strategy, allowing customers to seamlessly transition between online browsing and in-store purchasing. The brand’s retail expansion also underscores its commitment to fostering a sense of community, with in-store experiences designed to encourage engagement and personalization.

Mejuri’s Expanding Retail Footprint

In addition to the newly opened Laval store, Mejuri has been actively expanding its physical presence both in Canada and internationally. In November 2024, the brand unveiled its ninth Canadian store at Square One Shopping Centre in Mississauga, Ontario. This location features Mejuri’s signature Ring Bar and an on-site piercing studio, providing customers with an interactive and personalized shopping experience.

Mejuri’s Canadian retail locations include:

Toronto: Ossington Avenue, Yorkdale Shopping Centre, Holt Renfrew 50 Bloor St. W., Square One Mississauga
Calgary: CF Chinook Centre.
Montreal: Peel Street
Vancouver: Kitsilano, Holt Renfrew CF Pacific Centre, and Park Royal in West Vancouver

Internationally, Mejuri has established stores in major cities such as New York, Los Angeles, London, and Sydney, reflecting its commitment to providing accessible luxury worldwide.

Each Mejuri store is thoughtfully designed to offer a welcoming atmosphere, featuring interactive elements like the Ring Bar and full-service piercing studios, allowing customers to personalize their jewelry selections and curate their unique styles.

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Canada’s Luxury Retail Boom Faces Demand Challenges

By

Craig Patterson

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February 28, 2025

BloorLuxuryRun — Bloor Street luxury run in Toronto. Bloor Street has seen an unprecedented number of luxury brands open flagship stores over the past couple of years. Photo: Craig Patterson

Luxury retail in Canada is experiencing an architectural boom, with flagship stores and expansions dominating the landscape. Yet, as Randy Harris, founder of Trendex North America, emphasizes, this growth may not reflect a proportional increase in consumer demand. In an engaging conversation, Harris shared his insights on the dynamics shaping Canada’s luxury market and the challenges ahead.

Expanding Square Footage, Questionable Demand

The recent surge in luxury retail construction has been striking. Yet Harris suggests this may not align with the actual growth of the market. “The title of my next article could very well be ‘Luxury Retail Is Booming, But Demand Isn’t,’” he said.

Luxury brands such as Saint Laurent are expanding aggressively. For example, by mid-2025, Toronto alone will house an estimated 28,000 square feet of Saint Laurent retail space. But Harris cautions against equating this growth with increased consumer spending. “It’s logical to question whether all these new stores truly expand the market or merely make it easier for existing customers to shop,” he said.

Loyal Consumers, Limited Growth

Harris highlights that true luxury consumers—those who purchase brands like Chanel or Hermès—tend to be extremely brand-loyal. “These affluent customers aren’t necessarily increasing their purchases because there are more stores,” he said.

This loyalty contrasts with aspirational buyers, often younger consumers, who save up for occasional luxury purchases. While aspirational buyers contribute to the market, they do not drive the sustained growth needed to justify doubling retail square footage.

“The affluent, brand-loyal consumer is not necessarily swayed by convenience,” Harris explained. “They know their preferred brand, and their shopping habits are unlikely to shift dramatically simply because a flagship store opens nearby.”

New luxury wing in the Yorkdale Shopping Centre in Toronto. The mall is adding 65,000 square feet of luxury retail to an already very robust offering. Photo: Craig Patterson

Timing Challenges and Deep Pockets

The decision to expand luxury retail in Canada was likely made years ago, Harris explained, with brands forecasting a brighter economic environment. “You don’t just flip a switch and open a new store,” he noted. “These plans were set in motion two or three years ago.”

Many luxury brands are backed by global conglomerates with significant financial resources. This means they can afford to endure periods of slow growth in Canada. “Canada is such a small part of their portfolio,” Harris said. “They can ride out a couple of lean years.”

The Role of Tourism

Tourism has historically been a significant driver of luxury retail sales. In Canada, affluent visitors—particularly from China—have played a pivotal role in years past. However, Harris pointed out that the recovery of tourism remains uncertain. “We haven’t seen the same number of Chinese visitors compared to previous years,” he said.

The weak Canadian dollar should, in theory, make Canada an attractive shopping destination for international tourists. “A favourable exchange rate is important,” Harris added, “but it’s not the sole factor. The global flow of tourists, particularly from Asia, has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels.”

This has significant implications for luxury retailers, many of whom rely on tourist spending to meet their revenue targets. “Tourism is a critical input for my analysis of the luxury apparel market,” Harris noted. “When visitor numbers are down, it’s a major headwind for the industry.”

Royalmount in Montreal, prior to its opening in September 2024. Numerous luxury brands have opened their first stores in Quebec, with more to come this year. Image: Carbonleo

A Misalignment of Supply and Demand

Harris’s analysis underlines the disconnect between the rapid expansion of luxury retail space and the stagnant growth in demand.

“The market hasn’t doubled, but the square footage has,” he said. He predicts that brands may face challenges in justifying these expansions, particularly as they continue to rely on affluent but finite consumer bases.

For instance, the affluent neighborhoods surrounding Toronto’s Yorkdale Shopping Centre offer a prime market for luxury goods. However, as Harris observed, “Opening a flagship store doesn’t necessarily create new customers; it just makes it easier for existing ones to shop.”

Harris also questioned whether this building boom simplifies shopping or simply overextends retailers. “Does opening a flagship store really expand your business, or does it just make it easier for customers to access your brand?” he asked.

Generational and Demographic Trends

The dichotomy between aspirational and true luxury consumers is a key theme in Harris’s analysis. “You have younger, aspirational buyers trading up,” he explained. “But the core luxury consumer is not growing at the same pace as the square footage.”

Younger buyers are often drawn to accessible luxury items, such as small leather goods or entry-level accessories. “These purchases are significant,” Harris said, “but they’re not driving the kind of sustained growth needed for these massive expansions.”

Alberni Street at Burrard Street in Downtown Vancouver. Over the past decade, the area has transformed into a significant luxury node. Photo: Lee Rivett.

Long-Term Outlook for Luxury Brands

Despite current challenges, Harris is optimistic about the long-term outlook for some luxury brands. “Companies like Hermès and Saint Laurent are playing the long game,” he said. “They aren’t in any hurry and seem to be doing everything right.”

Harris noted that brands with measured, thoughtful approaches to growth are more likely to succeed. “The ones that avoid rushing expansions or overestimating the market will emerge stronger,” he said.

Brands like Hermès have demonstrated a commitment to quality and exclusivity, which helps maintain their appeal even during market slowdowns. “Hermès, in particular, has mastered the art of scarcity,” Harris said. “Their strategy ensures long-term desirability and brand equity.”

The Post-Pandemic Landscape

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to shape the luxury retail landscape. Harris noted that some expansions planned during the pandemic were based on overly optimistic forecasts. “Brands assumed the retail environment would bounce back faster than it has,” he said.

Additionally, the shift to e-commerce during the pandemic has left a lasting impact. While luxury consumers still value in-person shopping experiences, the convenience of online shopping cannot be ignored. “Retailers need to balance their brick-and-mortar investments with robust online offerings,” Harris advised.

Oakridge Park in Vancouver, opening summer 2025. Image: QuadReal

Global Context for Luxury Retail

Harris also highlighted how Canada’s luxury retail trends align with global patterns. “The expansion of flagship stores is not unique to Canada,” he said. “It’s part of a broader strategy by luxury brands to solidify their presence in key markets.”

However, he cautioned that Canada’s smaller population and limited tourist appeal make it distinct from other luxury hubs like Paris or New York. “The scale here is different,” Harris explained. “Brands need to adjust their strategies accordingly.”

The future of luxury retail in Canada will depend on a delicate balance of market forces, including consumer behaviour, tourism, and global economic trends. Harris underscored the importance of aligning growth strategies with actual market demand. “It’s about more than just buildings; it’s about understanding where the market is headed,” he said.

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Food prices could rise with tariffs: Loblaw

By

Mario Toneguzzi

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February 28, 2025

Food inflation continues to moderate, and in January was deflationary due to food purchased at restaurants and the impact of the removal of GST, says the latest Food Inflation report by Loblaw Companies Limited.

“Customers at the register continue to find ways to lower prices, including buying more items on sale, and substituting for less expensive brands or products. However, there remains concern around the potential inflationary pressures that will need to be closely monitored, and managed. All eyes right now are on the tariff-counter tariff dynamic between the United Sates and Canada; however, the weak Canadian dollar (CAD) is a present and growing concern,” said the Loblaw report.

“The weak foreign exchange (FX) rate will continue to place pressure on consumer prices for imported goods in the months ahead. The Canadian dollar is at its lowest level in 20 years, placing pressure on new food purchases, which will flow through in higher food prices—especially during the winter when we rely more on imports such as fresh produce. Since most of our fresh produce is priced in U.S. dollars, a weaker loonie means higher costs for essentials like lettuce, tomatoes, and avocados. Even goods from non-U.S. suppliers, such as coffee from South America or citrus from Spain, can often be priced in USD, providing little relief from FX pressures for Canadians.”

Loblaw said the currency impact extends beyond produce. Many products have an underlying commodity exposure (coffee, wheat, vegetable oil, sugar) that are purchased and sold in USD, and suppliers continue to seek to pass on their higher costs.

“While many of these are justified given the current economic situation, we continue to work closely with our suppliers to manage prices for customers, but expect this to be a headwind for food prices in the coming months,” said Loblaw.

“With a short-term reprieve on tariffs between Canada and the US, it’s worth considering how they could impact food prices if implemented. A 25% tariff doesn’t necessarily mean a 25% increase at the grocery store— some costs are absorbed across the entire supply chain, but some will inevitably end up as a higher priced product.

“If trade tensions escalate, Canadians could potentially see higher prices on all products that come from the U.S., including dairy, meat, and packaged foods, along with potential supply disruptions and market uncertainty.”

The impact of tariffs, according to Loblaw

Higher Costs for Canadian Producers – Tariffs on agricultural products and ingredients used for food-processing could make it more expensive to produce food in Canada, which increases the price of products on shelf. For example, peanut butter that is processed in Canada, but with peanuts from the U.S. would see a 25% tariff or tax on its ingredients. This is also true for some grain-based products (grown here, sent to the U.S. for manufacturing and then sold back in Canada), and processed meats.
More Expensive U.S. Imports – Canada is the 2nd largest market for U.S. agricultural exports, annually importing more than $20 billion. Specifically, the U.S. supplies about two-thirds of Canada’s vegetable imports, one-third of fruit imports, over half of Canada’s beef imports, and our country is the top market for US processed and prepared/ preserved pork. If Canada’s counter tariffs on U.S. products go into effect, this is likely to increase the price of these foods on the shelf.
Supply Chain Disruptions – Trade uncertainty may cause delays, shortages or price spikes in certain food products. From customers choosing to stock up on items in advance, to potential shipping lags as companies look to onboard new suppliers from new markets, customers may see more instability at shelf.

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Canadian businesses have optimistic outlook: Statistics Canada

By

Mario Toneguzzi

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February 28, 2025

Nearly three-quarters (73.1%) of businesses are either very optimistic or somewhat optimistic about their future outlook over the next 12 months. The proportion of businesses reporting an optimistic future outlook has consistently remained above 70% since the second quarter of 2024, according to a report released Friday by Statistics Canada.

“Meanwhile, 16.7% of businesses expect their sales of goods and services to increase over the next three months, consistent with 16.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024. This was led by businesses in retail trade (24.4%); manufacturing (23.4%); and arts, entertainment and recreation (19.8%). At the same time, 24.8% of businesses expect to raise the prices of their offered goods and services over the next three months,” explained the federal agency.

“Businesses continue to anticipate a variety of obstacles over the next three months, mainly those related to costs and labour. While pressures of both cost- and labour-related obstacles continue to ease in the first quarter, the proportion of businesses with a positive outlook remains over 70%.”

Cost-related obstacles remain a concern for the majority of businesses

While cost-related obstacles are expected by over three-fifths (62.5%) of businesses across Canada over the next three months, there has been a slight easing of pressures, with the proportion of businesses falling from nearly two-thirds (65.7%) in the fourth quarter of 2024, said the report.

Cost-related obstacles consist of inflation; the cost of inputs; interest rates and debt costs; the cost of insurance; costs of real estate, leasing or property taxes; and transportation costs.

“In this context, inflation (46.4%) is the most commonly expected obstacle by businesses over the next three months. Businesses in accommodation and food services (68.3%); arts, entertainment and recreation (56.9%); and retail trade (56.5%) were most likely to expect inflation to be an obstacle, said StatsCan.

Labour cost is the most commonly anticipated input businesses expect to be an obstacle

Statistics Canada said over one-quarter (26.7%) of businesses anticipate cost of inputs to be an obstacle over the next three months. Of these businesses, over three-fifths (61.6%) specified labour cost as an input they expect to be an obstacle, led by businesses in health care and social assistance (89.8%); arts, entertainment and recreation (84.3%); and information and cultural industries (76.1%).

“Meanwhile, 43.8% of businesses across Canada expect to increase wages over the next 12 months, with an average wage increase of 7.0%. This is comparable to the expected average wage increase of 7.4% from the first quarter of 2024. Businesses in retail trade (52.9%); manufacturing (52.3%); and accommodation and food services (51.5%) were most likely to expect to increase wages. On the other hand, over two-fifths (44.6%) of businesses expect wages to stay the same, and a further 3.1% expect a decrease in wages,” it said.

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Retail trade experiences best growth since June 2021: Statistics Canada

By

Mario Toneguzzi

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February 28, 2025

Retail trade increased 2.6% in December, representing its largest monthly growth rate since June 2021 (+5.0%) when restrictions on in-person shopping due to the COVID-19 pandemic began to ease reported Statistics Canada on Friday.

Retail trade expanded 1.6% in the fourth quarter as seven out of 12 subsectors increased. Motor vehicle and parts dealers (+5.8%) drove the growth for the second consecutive quarter as activity at new car dealerships remained robust and consumers continued to take advantage of more favourable financing rates, said the federal agency.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 0.2% in December, partially offsetting the decline recorded in November. Both services-producing and good-producing industries were up, contributing to the fifth increase in the last six months. Overall, 11 of 20 industrial sectors rose in December, said the report.

Statistics Canada said services-producing industries (+0.2%) were the largest contributors to growth in December, driven by a strong increase in retail trade. Goods-producing industries rose 0.3%, partially offsetting November’s decline. Utilities and mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction contributed the most to growth in the goods-producing aggregate after being among the largest detractors to growth in November.

All subsectors increased in December, with motor vehicle and parts dealers leading the growth and posting a third consecutive increase.

“Several subsectors selling goods impacted by the temporary GST/HST tax break introduced on December 14th recorded increases in December. Food and beverage stores (+2.9%) was the second largest contributor to the sector’s growth, as retailing activity at both supermarkets and other grocery retailers (except convenience retailers) and beer, wine and liquor stores drove the increases,” it said.

Statistics Canada also reported on Friday that GDP increased 0.6% in the fourth quarter, after rising 0.5% in the third quarter. Growth in the fourth quarter was driven by higher household final consumption expenditures and increased exports and business investment. Drawdowns of business inventories and higher imports moderated the overall growth.

On a per capita basis, real GDP rose 0.2% in the fourth quarter, after falling 0.1% in the previous quarter. In 2024, GDP per capita fell 1.4%, following a decline of 1.3% in 2023, it said.

“Household spending rose 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, the strongest growth since the second quarter of 2022. Higher spending on new trucks, vans and sport utility vehicles led the overall increase in the fourth quarter of 2024, followed by financial services and telecommunication services,” explained StatsCan.

“In 2024, household spending was up 2.4% from 2023, reflecting increases in goods (+1.6%) and services (+3.0%). The largest contributor to the rise in 2024 was purchases of new trucks, vans and sport utility vehicles, as well as expenditures on rent, telecommunication services and financial services.

“On a per capita basis, household expenditures rose 1.0% in the fourth quarter of 2024, while they fell 0.6% in the year as a whole.

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Lenders ready to support increased transaction activity: CBRE

By

Mario Toneguzzi

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February 28, 2025

Lenders are showing a significant shift in demand for retail as evidenced by the surge in intentions to increase budgets in 2025. Nearly half of lenders plan to grow their retail budgets this year, a notable jump compared to the average of 14% seen over the last seven surveys, according to the 2025 Canadian Real Estate Lenders’ Report by commercial real estate firm CBRE.

“After declining for five consecutive years, lender intentions to increase office budgets rebounded modestly from 0% last year to 7% of lenders in 2025. Intentions for growing industrial loan books continue to be relatively solid, accounting for 45% of lenders in 2025, but remain well below the average 63% of lenders seen over the 2018-2022 period. Notably, lender intentions for increasing hotel budgets for the year ahead have continued to steadily trend higher since the pandemic,” said the report.

So far lenders are not concerned about potential tariffs, and sentiment around commercial real estate lending has improved. According to CBRE’s new Canadian Real Estate Lenders’ Report, lenders are ready to support increased transaction activity and are gearing up for a much more active 2025. While some challenges persist for lending to certain property types and cities, borrowers can expect to see greater debt availability this year.

CBRE’s Lenders’ Report analyzes the responses of 37 domestic and foreign lenders, representing over $200 billion in commercial real estate loans under management combined, to a survey on activity expectations, lending terms and criteria, and lender sentiment and preferences. Lender sentiment matters because the availability of debt will determine if businesses can take on mortgages to grow their footprint or if investors can purchase properties.

“Lenders are feeling increasingly good about every asset class and property type, with levels of concern dropping across the board, except for land and condos,” says CBRE Senior Vice President Jessica Harland. “Nearly half of lenders intend to increase allocations to commercial real estate for a second year in a row and those looking to make a large increase is also up.”

In its Canadian Real Estate Market Outlook 2025 report, CBRE said retailer sentiment going into the new year remains positive, however, factors influencing the market will further entrench current trends and push change in the sector. Being forward looking and resilient will always be rewarded, and this has never been more true than in today’s competitive landscape.

Trends to Watch

Here’s what CBRE identified as trends to watch this year:

A supply-constrained retail landscape is expected to persist and reshape the typical store format in Canada. Retailers will ultimately be strategic, expanding into secondary markets or modifying the scale of their typical store.

Expanding where and how retailers access consumers may be what it takes to remain relevant in the year ahead. Diversifying sales methods may play a significant role in revenue generation, even if primarily used for branding.

Sentiment going into 2025 remains positive, however, we are starting to see more normal growth levels following the boom pandemic years. Retailers that tap into savings, provide entertainment, or are innovative/experiential will continue to thrive during this time.

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Canadians want retailers to make it easier to support local businesses amid trade war threats: KPMG

By

Mario Toneguzzi

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February 28, 2025

image - 2025-02-26T142419.988 — A sign encouraging shoppers to buy Canadian products at a liquor store in Vancouver on Feb. 2, 2025. Shoppers have been caught up in the buy Canadian fervour since U.S. President Donald Trump began threatening to apply tariffs on imports from Canada. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ethan Cairns

As more Canadians choose to buy local products amid the looming threat of U.S. tariffs, a new survey from KPMG in Canada finds they want retailers to make it easier for them to do so.

More than nine in 10 say they want stores to promote Canadian products and think grocery stores should be required to give them preferential shelf space with nearly 70 per cent wanting them to stop selling U.S. products altogether, said the company.

“We’re seeing a significant shift in the shopping behaviour of Canadians, who are fired up to support local producers, artisans, and companies. As many as 70 per cent of Canadians in our survey were clear – they will boycott U.S. products with eight in 10 actively looking for non-U.S. versions of products when a Canadian one isn’t available.” said Kostya Polyakov, Partner and National Consumer and Retail Leader at KPMG in Canada. “Canadians are fighting for Canada, to keep jobs and their dollars within the community. But it’s not always easy at first glance to know if what they’re buying is Canadian and increasingly, they now demand retailers make it easier for them, calling out those that don’t.”

With 84 per cent of Canadians reading packages to see where products are made and three-quarters willing to pay more to buy a Canadian product over one that’s made in the U.S., retailers already see the change in shopping habits. Loblaw Companies Ltd. recently reported a 10-per-cent increase in sales of items labelled product of Canada, made in Canada or produced in Canada for the first week of February compared to the previous week, said the KPMG report.

Key poll highlights:

93 per cent of Canadians say they want retailers and grocery stores to identify and promote Canadian products
68 per cent think, in a trade war, grocery stores should stop selling U.S. products and produce
85 per cent say the trade war has prompted them to support more local producers or companies
70 per cent of Canadian consumers say they will boycott U.S. products, including produce and other groceries should U.S. President Donald Trump follow through with a 25-per-cent tariff on imports from Canada
80 per cent say they are purposefully looking for a non-U.S. version (e.g., if fruit is available from either the U.S. or Peru, choosing the Peruvian version) if a Canadian product equivalent isn’t available
89 per cent say Canadian grocery stores should be required to give preferential shelf space to Canadian products
84 per cent say they are paying more attention to the origin of where products are made by reading the labels
77 per cent say they will buy Canadian products even if it costs more

Labels matter

Poll findings reveal consumers are paying attention to more than just labels as the vast majority (93 per cent) hope – and expect – Canadian retailers are searching for non-U.S. suppliers with 85 per cent saying they will think twice about buying from stores that move its entire operations to the U.S., said KPMG.

“As consumers increasingly prioritize Canadian products, it is crucial for retailers to adjust their supply chain so they can continue to operate locally. This not only serves to build trust with customers by aligning to their expectations but also helps strengthen our national economy,” said Polyakov. “There is also strong agreement among survey respondents that inter-provincial trade barriers must be eliminated so they can have enough product choice to continue buying Canadian.”

Despite the surge of national pride, affordability remains a top concern as 86 per cent are worried Canada will slide into a recession and 90 per cent think governments should lower the cost of everyday essentials by reducing taxes or providing tax credits to help consumers through a tariff war, noted KPMG.

“While it’s clear Canadians will pay extra to support the home team, the impact of the rising cost of essentials is also top of mind for many,” said Polyakov. “With consumers strongly expecting to see their grocery bills go up, they plan to cut back on non-essential spending, which could hit sectors like dining and entertainment hard.

“The question is, will this trend of buying Canadian last beyond a few months or quarters?”

Additional poll findings:

93 per cent say they hope – and expect – Canadian retailers are searching for non-U.S. suppliers
85 per cent say they will think twice about buying from a company that deserts Canada and moves its entire operations to the U.S.
96 per cent say inter-provincial trade barriers must be eliminated to make it possible for consumers to buy Canadian and have a choice of Canadian products
86 per cent say they are worried that Canada will slide into a recession
24 per cent are willing to pay 2-5 per cent more to make sure they are buying a Canadian product over one that’s made in the U.S.
- 16 per cent are willing to pay 6-10 per cent more
- 14 per cent are willing to pay more than 11 per cent more
- 25 per cent say they can’t afford any increase in prices
90 per cent say to help consumers through a tariff war, governments should reduce the cost of everyday essentials, like food and gas, by reducing taxes or providing tax credits
94 per cent expect the cost of groceries to rise for their household
84 per cent say that if the cost of essentials – like groceries and produce – go up, they will have to reduce spending on other things, the “nice to have” including eating out and entertainment

Related Retail Insider stories:

Canadian Retail News From Around The Web For February 28, 2025

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Retail Insider

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February 27, 2025

News at a Glance

Retail Insider is streamlining its Canadian retail news from around the web to include a handful of top news stories that can be viewed quickly during the day. Here are the top stories from the past 24 hours.

Couche-Tard eyes friendly takeover talks with Seven & i after white knight bid derailed (Globe & Mail)

Amazon facing proposed class-action lawsuit over delays with two-day Prime deliveries in Quebec (CTV)

MP Angus calls for Amazon boycott after company closes seven Quebec warehouses (MSN)

Vancouver music shop closes original location after more than 40 years (VIA)

Edmonton store makes it easier for people to buy Canadian (Global)

Olds poised for retail boom, but Airdrie competition pulls shoppers (Discover Airdrie)

Chorney-Booth: Super Variety is Inglewood’s friendly neighbourhood sandwich shop (Calgary Herald)

Canadian Made: Why shopping local is essential for downtown Squamish businesses (Castanet)