Canadian retailers are preparing for another round of trade disruption after the federal government unveiled counter-tariffs on $27.6 billion worth of U.S.-origin goods, bringing a wide range of consumer products directly into the escalating Canada-U.S. trade dispute.

The measures, scheduled to take effect September 8, cover 874 tariff items at rates of 15%, 25% and 50%. Retail Council of Canada (RCC) says affected retail categories include apparel and clothing, furniture, large appliances, electronics, electrical equipment, power tools, carpets, paper products, sporting goods, dairy products including cheese, fish and seafood, and broader general merchandise, along with selected steel and aluminum products and metal derivatives.

Ottawa announced the countermeasures after the United States imposed new 50% tariffs on approximately $28 billion worth of Canadian goods following the breakdown of bilateral trade negotiations. The federal government has characterized its response as dollar-for-dollar and rate-for-rate retaliation. For retailers, the immediate concern is how to manage merchandise that could become substantially more expensive to import.

The impact will vary by category and retailer. Businesses may pass some of the additional cost to consumers, absorb a portion through margins, negotiate with suppliers, change their merchandise mix or source comparable products from Canada and other countries. Where readily available alternatives do not exist, the options become considerably narrower.

Retailers Face Uneven Sourcing Challenges

The federal government sought to design its countermeasures around products where Canadian or international alternatives are available, according to RCC. The organization is nevertheless warning members that several affected categories will present immediate substitution challenges.

A merchant able to replace a tariffed U.S.-origin product with comparable merchandise from a Canadian or international supplier may be able to limit its exposure over time. Retailers dependent on specialized U.S. products, established supplier relationships or merchandise for which customers expect particular brands could have considerably less flexibility. Product specifications, manufacturing capacity, minimum order requirements, delivery schedules and existing contracts can make a supplier change more complicated than finding a similar product elsewhere.

RCC is collecting information from retailers about affected products and tariff classifications, projected cost and pricing impacts, inventory and supply-chain effects, sourcing bottlenecks and situations where viable non-U.S. substitutes are unavailable. It is also seeking information about customs classifications and goods already in transit, giving the organization specific evidence to use in its advocacy and tariff-remission efforts.

Prices Are Only Part of the Tariff Equation

Although tariffs raise concerns about consumer prices, Canada’s previous experience suggests the relationship between duties imposed at the border and prices in stores is considerably more complicated.

Research published by the Bank of Canada this year examined Canada’s 2025 counter-tariffs using daily online prices from seven major Canadian retailers covering more than 110,000 products. During that earlier trade dispute, Canada imposed 25% tariffs on a range of American products that included appliances, electronics, furniture, household products and grocery items.

The Bank found that prices for tariffed products increased approximately 6% relative to comparable products that were not subject to tariffs, amounting to roughly one-quarter pass-through of the 25% tariff into relative retail prices. The findings should not be used to predict the impact of the latest countermeasures, where the product mix, tariff rates and economic conditions are different, but they show that tariff costs do not necessarily move directly from the border to the price tag.

Costs can be distributed throughout the supply chain as suppliers and retailers negotiate terms, adjust margins, alter assortments or change purchasing decisions. That becomes particularly relevant when some goods face duties as high as 50%, potentially changing the economics of carrying a product even when the full tariff is never reflected in its retail price.

Tariffs Could Accelerate Changes in Retail Sourcing

The longer-term impact may become increasingly visible in procurement decisions. Canadian businesses had already started changing sourcing strategies during the previous period of Canada-U.S. trade tension, and another round of counter-tariffs creates a new incentive to examine where merchandise originates.

Statistics Canada reported that 15.8% of businesses surveyed during the 2025 tariff environment planned to increase domestic sourcing, while 14.2% planned to seek alternative suppliers outside the United States and 15% planned to increase prices. Retailers also changed the way they marketed merchandise: 45.5% of retail businesses had changed marketing practices to promote Canadian products, while 40.7% reported increased sales of Canadian products during the period examined.

Those behaviours remained visible into 2026. Statistics Canada reported earlier this year that 42.7% of retailers had changed marketing practices over the previous 12 months to promote Canadian products, while 35.8% reported increased sales of Canadian merchandise.

Canada’s broader trade patterns have also been shifting. The United States accounted for 62.3% of Canadian merchandise imports in 2024, compared with 58.8% in 2025, while imports from countries outside the United States increased. That change cannot be attributed solely to tariffs, since currency movements, demand, supply conditions and other economic factors influence trade flows, but it has occurred as Canadian businesses have been examining domestic and non-U.S. sourcing alternatives.

Some Products Will Be Harder to Replace

The ability to diversify will vary considerably across retail categories. Supplier relationships are built around product specifications, pricing, manufacturing capacity, delivery schedules, minimum order quantities, regulatory requirements and consumer demand. Established brands can also be difficult to substitute when customers are seeking a particular product rather than an interchangeable alternative.

Retailers selling merchandise available from a wide range of suppliers may have greater flexibility to change assortments, while businesses dependent on specialized or difficult-to-replace U.S.-origin goods could face greater cost and margin pressure. The adjustment may also be more challenging for smaller merchants with less purchasing leverage, fewer procurement resources or difficulty meeting the volume requirements of alternative suppliers.

The extent of these challenges is one reason RCC is asking retailers to identify specific sourcing bottlenecks rather than treating the 874 affected tariff items as a uniform group. The commercial impact can look very different when a substitute is readily available than when a retailer has few realistic alternatives.

Buy Canada Takes on Greater Importance

The counter-tariffs are also being accompanied by a broader push toward domestic sourcing. RCC told members Tuesday that, in its discussions with the federal government, Ottawa highlighted an expectation that retailers prioritize domestic sourcing and clearly identify Canadian-made products for consumers.

RCC is gathering examples showing how retailers are already sourcing, promoting and displaying Canadian products. The effort follows merchandising changes that became increasingly visible during the earlier trade dispute, when retailers expanded Buy Canadian messaging and Statistics Canada recorded increased promotion and sales of Canadian merchandise.

For Canadian manufacturers and suppliers, another round of tariffs could create opportunities to compete for purchasing that previously flowed to U.S. suppliers, particularly where domestic alternatives already exist. The opportunity will depend on whether Canadian producers can provide the required merchandise at sufficient scale, quality and competitive pricing. Where they cannot, suppliers in Europe, Asia, Mexico and other markets could also benefit as retailers seek additional sourcing options.

Remission Could Provide Relief for Hard-to-Replace Goods

Retailers unable to find viable alternatives may be able to seek relief through Canada’s tariff-remission process. RCC says businesses can apply for remission on affected products where alternative sourcing is unavailable and the duties create material economic harm. Following RCC advocacy, the federal government has committed additional personnel to help expedite reviews.

The process could become important as retailers work through the tariff classifications and determine where substitution is practical. RCC is asking members to provide eight- or 10-digit Harmonized System codes, projected cost and pricing impacts, inventory implications and evidence of sourcing constraints to support advocacy and remission interventions.

Canada also used remission measures during the previous tariff dispute, providing a precedent for targeted relief where counter-tariffs created unintended costs for Canadian businesses. The availability of remission does not eliminate the disruption, but it gives retailers with particularly difficult sourcing situations a mechanism to seek relief.

Retailers Have Until September 8 to Prepare

The counter-tariffs take effect at 12:01 a.m. on September 8, while goods already in transit to Canada before the effective date will be exempt. Retailers and importers therefore have a short period to review affected merchandise, country-of-origin classifications, incoming shipments, purchase orders and supplier arrangements.

Country of origin will be particularly important. The measures apply to U.S.-origin goods according to applicable rules of origin, meaning merchandise sold by an American company is not automatically subject to the new tariff because the brand or supplier is based in the United States. Retailers will need to determine whether individual products fall within the affected tariff classifications and meet the relevant origin criteria.

For businesses carrying captured goods, preparations may include identifying immediate substitutions, discussing costs with suppliers, reviewing pricing and inventory, and determining whether longer-term sourcing changes or remission applications are required.

Consumers Remain Highly Price Conscious

The ability to pass additional costs through to shoppers may be constrained by the economic environment. Bank of Canada consumer research continues to show that high prices and economic uncertainty are weighing on household spending intentions, while consumers continue to identify tariffs and trade tensions as potential sources of inflation.

Passing additional costs through can protect margins but risks weakening demand, while absorbing them can preserve price competitiveness at the expense of profitability. The Bank of Canada’s research into the previous tariff episode suggests retailers and suppliers responded through a combination of adjustments rather than uniform increases in shelf prices.

The outcome after September 8 will depend heavily on the products involved, available substitutes and the competitive position of individual retailers. Categories where consumers can easily switch brands or merchants could leave businesses with particularly limited pricing power.

Trade Tensions Add New Risk to Retail Supply Chains

Canadian retail supply chains developed over decades around relatively predictable access to the U.S. market, supported by geographic proximity, integrated transportation networks and extensive supplier relationships. The United States remains an enormously important source of merchandise for Canada and will continue to play a central role in the country’s retail supply chain.

Repeated trade disputes, however, add cross-border policy risk to procurement decisions. Retailers may place greater value on maintaining suppliers in multiple countries, developing Canadian sources where practical, improving visibility into where merchandise originates and reducing vulnerabilities created by concentrated sourcing.

Ottawa reinforced the diversification theme Tuesday with a $7.5-billion package of support measures for Canadian businesses and workers affected by the latest U.S. tariffs. The federal government has positioned greater economic resilience and diversification as part of its response to the trade dispute.

For Canadian retailers, attention will initially centre on the costs arriving September 8 and how they can be managed through pricing, supplier negotiations, alternative sourcing or tariff relief. The more lasting effect could emerge through purchasing decisions, as another period of Canada-U.S. trade friction gives retailers additional reason to reassess where merchandise sold in Canadian stores comes from.

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