Analysis by J.C. Williams Group
The Canadian retail market showed mixed results in July 2024, with overall sales up 2.0% YOY. However, when excluding automotive, food, and pharmacies, there was a slight decline of 0.5% YOY in discretionary spending. This indicates a continued cautious consumer sentiment and shifting spending patterns across various retail categories.
A significant factor influencing the retail landscape was the LCBO strike, which had a notable impact on alcohol sales in Ontario. Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores experienced a substantial decrease of 6.6% YOY, with YTD figures also down by 3.8%. This decline not only reflects the immediate impact of the strike but also suggests a broader trend of changing consumer preferences regarding alcohol consumption. Interestingly, the impact on Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores was less pronounced, with only a 1.0% YOY decrease, indicating a potential shift in where consumers are purchasing their alcoholic beverages.
In contrast to the challenges faced by the alcohol sector, General Merchandise Stores demonstrated strong performance with a 3.1% YOY increase. This growth can be attributed in part to the success of promotional events such as Amazon Prime Day in July. Many Canadian brands strategically offered competitive sales and discounts around this period, contributing to the category’s robust growth, with YTD figures up 4.7%. However, Prime Day still impacted e-commerce sales, with an increase of 6.9% YOY.
For likely the first time since its legalization, the Cannabis retail sector faced headwinds, reporting negative growth with sales down 3.9% YOY and 1.0% YTD. This unexpected downturn came despite anticipations of a strong July performance due to the LCBO strike, which was expected to drive consumers towards cannabis products. The sector’s challenges were further highlighted by the announcement that Tokyo Smoke would be closing 29 stores and filing for creditor protection, signaling potential oversaturation and regulatory challenges in the cannabis retail market.
As we move into the fall season, several factors are likely to influence retail performance:
- How will smaller basket sizes/spend during the back-to-school shopping period impact overall retail performance?
- What is the anticipated impact of having multiple Prime Day events (Summer and Fall) on the overall holiday retail performance?
- What effect will the reduced occurrence of wildfires compared to past years have on retail markets, especially in areas previously impacted by such events?
- How can retailers mitigate the impact of unexpected weather-related disruptions?
- How are YOU strategizing your marketing efforts given that holiday promotions are starting earlier each year?
For support with your holiday strategy, reach out to the team at JCWG!
Canadian Retail Sales by Product Category, Same Month Comparison
| Sales for the Month of July | Jul-24 | Jul-23 | YOY |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Stores | 69,457,362 | 68,124,865 | 1.96% |
| Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers | 19,194,078 | 18,097,693 | 6.06% |
| Gasoline Stations | 7,096,643 | 6,917,023 | 2.60% |
| All Stores Less Automotive | 43,166,641 | 43,110,149 | 0.13% |
| Food and Beverage Stores | 13,337,704 | 13,574,500 | -1.74% |
| Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores* | 9,265,663 | 9,360,078 | -1.01% |
| Convenience Stores | 795,198 | 841,735 | -5.53% |
| Specialty Food Stores | 964,156 | 910,886 | 5.85% |
| Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores | 2,312,688 | 2,461,800 | -6.06% |
| Health and Personal Care Stores | 5,619,743 | 5,217,743 | 7.70% |
| All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies | 24,209,194 | 24,317,906 | -0.45% |
| General Merchandise Stores | 9,310,224 | 9,035,070 | 3.05% |
| Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronic and Appliance Stores | 3,444,385 | 3,546,934 | -2.89% |
| Furniture Stores | 1,184,967 | 1,263,925 | -6.25% |
| Home Furnishings Stores | 688,443 | 660,250 | 4.27% |
| Electronics and Appliance Stores | 1,570,975 | 1,622,759 | -3.19% |
| Clothing and Accessories Stores | 3,382,989 | 3,411,564 | -0.84% |
| Clothing Stores | 2,624,181 | 2,608,757 | 0.59% |
| Shoe Stores | 389,022 | 429,164 | -9.35% |
| Jewellery, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores | 369,786 | 373,643 | -1.03% |
| Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores | 3,791,708 | 3,971,133 | -4.52% |
| Building Material and Garden Equipment | 4,279,887 | 4,353,207 | -1.68% |
| Miscellaneous Store Retailers | 2,489,722 | 2,608,501 | -4.55% |
| Cannabis Retailers | 440,701 | 458,435 | -3.87% |
Canadian Ecommerce Sales
| Ecommerce Sales | Jul-24 | Jul-23 | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year-to-Date | 25,675,930 | 24,331,857 | 5.52% |
| Year-Over-Year | 3,589,532 | 3,356,461 | 6.94% |
Canadian Retail Sales by Store Category, Year to Date Comparison
| Year-to-Date, Ending July | Jul-24 | Jul-23 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Stores | 454,122,846 | 449,674,856 | 0.99% |
| Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers | 125,761,558 | 124,551,331 | 0.97% |
| Gasoline Stations | 45,114,367 | 45,124,827 | -0.02% |
| All Stores Less Automotive | 283,246,921 | 279,998,698 | 1.16% |
| Food and Beverage Stores | 87,963,074 | 87,323,125 | 0.73% |
| Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores* | 62,861,860 | 61,777,492 | 1.76% |
| Convenience Stores | 4,996,503 | 5,158,594 | -3.14% |
| Specialty Food Stores | 5,995,128 | 5,714,539 | 4.91% |
| Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores | 14,109,585 | 14,672,497 | -3.84% |
| Health and Personal Care Stores | 38,305,606 | 36,236,257 | 5.71% |
| All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies | 156,978,241 | 156,439,316 | 0.34% |
| General Merchandise Stores | 60,394,775 | 57,700,970 | 4.67% |
| Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronic and Appliance Stores | 23,489,825 | 23,748,424 | -1.09% |
| Furniture Stores | 7,797,891 | 7,991,644 | -2.42% |
| Home Furnishings Stores | 4,619,352 | 4,817,671 | -4.12% |
| Electronics and Appliance Stores | 11,072,583 | 10,939,106 | 1.22% |
| Clothing and Accessories Stores | 21,652,503 | 21,942,001 | -1.32% |
| Clothing Stores | 16,743,907 | 16,886,867 | -0.85% |
| Shoe Stores | 2,528,628 | 2,623,653 | -3.62% |
| Jewellery, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores | 2,379,967 | 2,431,480 | -2.12% |
| Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores | 24,642,527 | 25,851,025 | -4.67% |
| Building Material and Garden Equipment | 26,798,608 | 27,196,897 | -1.46% |
| Miscellaneous Store Retailers | 16,044,263 | 16,991,296 | -5.57% |
| Cannabis Retailers | 2,887,003 | 2,917,017 | -1.03% |
Retail Trade, Canada, All Stores, by Geographic Regions
| Region | Year-to-Date 2024 | Year-to-Date 2023 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| British Columbia | 61,219,601 | 61,273,325 | -0.09% |
| Vancouver | 30,586,666 | 30,125,219 | 1.53% |
| Alberta | 58,733,440 | 58,610,552 | 0.21% |
| Prairies* | 30,212,334 | 29,590,842 | 2.10% |
| Ontario | 169,063,064 | 167,759,320 | 0.78% |
| Toronto | 76,009,265 | 76,439,840 | -0.56% |
| Québec | 102,031,569 | 100,701,098 | 1.32% |
| Montréal | 50,683,653 | 50,251,622 | 0.86% |
| Atlantic Canada | 31,220,769 | 30,180,687 | 3.45% |
| Territories* | 1,642,073 | 1,559,031 | 5.33% |
Related:
- Canadian Retail Sales Saw Essential Gains Amid Discretionary Spend Drop in May [J.C. Williams Group Analysis]
- Declining Sales and Footfall Plague Canadian Retailers [J.C. Williams Group StatCan Analysis]
- Canadian Retail Sees Strong Gains in February, Fueling Summer Shopping Speculation [JC Williams Group Analysis]
