September’s Canadian retail picture reflects shifting consumer psychology as much as economics. With All Stores up 5.7% YOY and discretionary (All Stores less Automotive, Food, Pharmacies) up 7.7% YOY, we see three significant forces: the September 17 Bank of Canada rate cut nudged confidence and big-ticket intent; the September 1 removal of retaliatory tariffs eased price pressure on select imports; and a warmer-than-usual month extended late-summer spending. Together, these factors favoured categories where consumers perceive value, novelty, or seasonal utility.
Despite more back-to-office mandates that should boost daypart trips, Convenience Stores (and Gas Stations) are the only categories down YTD, which are intertwined. Our view hasn’t changed: the ongoing alcohol integration is cannibalizing margin and space. Valuable cooler/shelf real estate has been reallocated to low-margin alcohol, crowding out higher-margin, higher-frequency items (single-serve beverages, snacks, grab-and-go). Add sizable, sunk investments in fixtures and compliance, and reversibility is low, so we don’t see a near-term rebound.
This stance seems at odds with the Convenience Industry Council of Canada’s reported 12% sales increase from member surveys, touted as a win for alcohol. We think that’s a revenue-mix story, not an earnings or productivity story. Survey gains can reflect price/mix from alcohol without improving gross profit dollars per square foot or trip frequency. In short: dollars up in a survey can coexist with weaker profitability and softer non-fuel comps.
Foodservices and Drinking Places grew 5.2% YOY in September—modest, but logical. Domestic tourism stayed elevated into late summer/early fall, and warmer weather extended patios, which meaningfully supports beverage and occasion-led sales. That said, our foodservice expert flags a caution: higher cheques, not more patrons, are doing the work. Price increases, add-ons, and mix are carrying topline, but traffic remains fragile. As weather normalizes and promotional intensity rises into Q4, operators should watch guest counts and margin dilution closely.
On discretionary spend, Canada (7.7% YOY) is outpacing the US (5.7% YOY). Meanwhile, the US is showing comparatively stronger growth in essential categories. There are two potential reasons for this: First, the US may simply be performing better in staples. Second, tariff pass-through from importers to consumers could be inflating essential spend as importers push costs to consumers.
As we move further into the holiday season, JCWG is thinking about:
- Will Black Friday remain the highest revenue day for retailers in 2025, or will other days (post-Black Friday weekend, Cyber Monday, etc.) surpass it?
- With Cyber Monday falling into December, will Canadian retailers experience lower November sales?
- Beyond Foodservices & Drinking Places, which categories benefit most (Clothing & Accessories, fan gear, TV/home-entertainment adjacencies, etc.) from the Blue Jays playoff run?
- How are YOU preparing for the upcoming new year and preparing your 2026 strategy?
Retail Sales by Product Category, Same Month Comparison
| Sales for the Month of September | Sep-25 | Sep-24 | YOY |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Stores | 69,500,204 | 65,727,725 | 5.74% |
| Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers | 19,447,312 | 18,302,355 | 6.26% |
| Gasoline Stations | 6,253,377 | 6,180,563 | 1.18% |
| All Stores Less Automotive | 43,799,515 | 41,244,807 | 6.19% |
| Food and Beverage Stores | 12,854,920 | 12,543,748 | 2.48% |
| Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores* | 9,074,485 | 8,877,193 | 2.22% |
| Convenience Stores | 691,299 | 728,582 | -5.12% |
| Specialty Food Stores | 965,394 | 888,849 | 8.61% |
| Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores | 2,123,743 | 2,049,125 | 3.64% |
| Health and Personal Care Stores | 5,811,014 | 5,358,694 | 8.44% |
| All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies | 25,133,581 | 23,342,365 | 7.67% |
| General Merchandise Stores | 9,110,911 | 8,643,359 | 5.41% |
| Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronic and Appliance Stores | 3,814,637 | 3,526,680 | 8.17% |
| Furniture Stores | 1,222,179 | 1,198,469 | 1.98% |
| Home Furnishings Stores | 772,592 | 722,152 | 6.98% |
| Electronics and Appliance Stores | 1,819,865 | 1,606,059 | 13.31% |
| Clothing and Accessories Stores | 3,847,886 | 3,422,497 | 12.43% |
| Clothing Stores | 3,041,710 | 2,667,384 | 14.03% |
| Shoe Stores | 391,226 | 392,197 | -0.25% |
| Jewellery, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores | 414,950 | 362,916 | 14.34% |
| Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores | 4,189,768 | 3,712,797 | 12.85% |
| Building Material and Garden Equipment | 4,170,378 | 4,037,031 | 3.30% |
| Miscellaneous Store Retailers | 2,767,933 | 2,425,655 | 14.11% |
| Cannabis Retailers | 474,974 | 443,935 | 6.99% |
| Foodservices and Drinking Places | 8,664,030 | 8,234,287 | 5.22% |
Retail Sales by Store Category, Year to Date Comparison
| Year-to-Date Sales Ending September | Sep-25 | Sep-24 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Stores | 618,929,048 | 589,782,807 | 4.94% |
| Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers | 175,412,784 | 163,170,097 | 7.50% |
| Gasoline Stations | 55,970,679 | 58,161,981 | -3.77% |
| All Stores Less Automotive | 387,545,585 | 368,450,729 | 5.18% |
| Food and Beverage Stores | 117,400,392 | 114,193,611 | 2.81% |
| Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores* | 83,962,336 | 81,218,078 | 3.38% |
| Convenience Stores | 6,216,806 | 6,509,122 | -4.49% |
| Specialty Food Stores | 8,389,907 | 7,851,209 | 6.86% |
| Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores | 18,831,345 | 18,615,204 | 1.16% |
| Health and Personal Care Stores | 52,977,028 | 49,187,359 | 7.70% |
| All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies | 217,168,165 | 205,069,759 | 5.90% |
| General Merchandise Stores | 81,777,651 | 78,209,978 | 4.56% |
| Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronic and Appliance Stores | 32,224,819 | 30,656,099 | 5.12% |
| Furniture Stores | 10,697,686 | 10,218,256 | 4.69% |
| Home Furnishings Stores | 6,434,212 | 6,029,681 | 6.71% |
| Electronics and Appliance Stores | 15,092,921 | 14,408,163 | 4.75% |
| Clothing and Accessories Stores | 31,886,845 | 28,902,794 | 10.32% |
| Clothing Stores | 24,820,219 | 22,355,064 | 11.03% |
| Shoe Stores | 3,457,167 | 3,420,324 | 1.08% |
| Jewellery, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores | 3,609,457 | 3,127,406 | 15.41% |
| Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores | 35,086,789 | 32,428,668 | 8.20% |
| Building Material and Garden Equipment | 36,192,060 | 34,872,217 | 3.78% |
| Miscellaneous Store Retailers | 23,552,625 | 21,141,175 | 11.41% |
| Cannabis Retailers | 4,142,417 | 3,796,044 | 9.12% |
| Foodservices and Drinking Places | 75,750,552 | 71,319,811 | 6.21% |
Ecommerce Sales
| Sep-25 | Sep-24 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Ecommerce Sales, YTD | 35,785,164 | 33,551,835 | 6.66% |
| Ecommerce Sales, YOY | 4,067,762 | 4,203,314 | -3.22% |
Regional Sales, Year to Date Comparison
| Region | Year-to-Date, 2025 | Year-to-Date, 2024 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| British Columbia | 85,000,432 | 79,388,838 | 7.07% |
| Vancouver | 42,834,106 | 39,607,961 | 8.15% |
| Alberta | 80,323,663 | 76,284,170 | 5.30% |
| Prairies* | 40,956,831 | 39,274,948 | 4.28% |
| Ontario | 229,704,750 | 219,233,785 | 4.78% |
| Toronto | 101,444,125 | 98,225,191 | 3.28% |
| Québec | 138,235,752 | 132,698,758 | 4.17% |
| Montréal | 68,293,918 | 65,902,241 | 3.63% |
| Atlantic Canada | 42,478,360 | 40,780,716 | 4.16% |
| Territories | 2,229,266 | 2,121,593 | 5.08% |
NATIONAL RETAIL BULLETIN
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