The Canadian retail landscape is undergoing a historic shift with the closure of Hudson’s Bay stores following the company’s filing for bankruptcy protection. Yet despite its storied past, the department store chain’s departure is expected to have a limited impact on overall apparel sales in Canada.
That’s the conclusion from Randy Harris, President and Founder of Trendex North America, who has been analyzing apparel retail trends in Canada for over two decades.
“In 2024, Hudson’s Bay only held a 2.2% share of the Canadian apparel market,” said Harris in an interview with Retail Insider. “That’s down from 2.4% the year before. It’s become almost a non-entity.”
A Declining Force in Apparel
While Hudson’s Bay was once considered a national retail powerhouse, its influence in fashion and clothing has sharply eroded in recent years. According to Harris, the company’s declining relevance means its closure will not significantly alter the dynamics of Canada’s apparel industry.
“We believe that the vacuum created by them going out of business won’t benefit any one player. It’ll be spread out across multiple retailers,” he explained. “And we don’t believe the brand had a meaningful lock on the market for anyone under the age of 35.”
The aging customer base—many of whom were drawn in by loyalty programs rather than product uniqueness—further limited the store’s cultural and commercial relevance. “A young kid that’s 22 years old didn’t go to the Bay and didn’t give a damn about their points,” Harris quipped.
Lessons from Sears and Woodward’s
Looking at the past, Harris draws a parallel to the closures of Sears Canada and Woodward’s.
“When both Woodward’s and Sears went out of business, around 20% of their apparel business just disappeared,” he said. “It didn’t transfer neatly to another retailer. It just vanished from the market.”
That trend, though difficult to trace precisely through Statistics Canada, suggests that store closures don’t always lead to redistributions of market share. Instead, they sometimes result in overall contraction.
Still, Harris anticipates a much smaller ripple effect with Hudson’s Bay given its already diminished presence.
“The difference here is the Bay doesn’t sell anything that’s truly unique. It’s not like they had exclusive lines that can’t be found elsewhere.”
Lack of Differentiation and Strategic Missteps
One of the critical issues, Harris argues, is that Hudson’s Bay failed to define itself in a changing retail landscape.
“They tried private labels but never put any muscle behind them,” he said. “None of them are memorable. They didn’t have anything iconic. When Bonnie Brooks left, to me, that was the death knell.”
Brooks, who served as President and CEO from 2008 to 2012, was widely credited with reinvigorating the brand before stepping down. Harris believes that what followed was a revolving door of executives and a takeover by financial engineers who lacked understanding of retail fundamentals.
“They were focused on short-term gains, not long-term positioning. It became a case of financial engineering rather than retail strategy.”
The Richard Baker and Eddie Lampert Parallel
Harris draws a striking parallel between Hudson’s Bay Company Executive Chairman Richard Baker and former Sears Holdings Chairman Eddie Lampert, both of whom he refers to as “financial engineers.”
“Neither of them are retailers. That’s the bottom line. They didn’t understand the retail business and ran these companies into the ground,” he said. “It’s the same story with different characters.”
He adds that while department stores are evolving globally—with examples of successful adaptations in Europe and Asia—Canada’s department store models failed to pivot effectively.
“We’re not in an age of generalists anymore. We’re in an era of specialists. Unless you bring something unique, you’re going to struggle.”
No Clear Launch Pad for Emerging Brands
While the impact on overall apparel sales may be minimal, the closure of Hudson’s Bay could complicate brand launches in Canada. Harris acknowledges the department store occasionally served as an entry point for emerging international labels.
“You’re right that the Bay sometimes introduced brands like Macy’s does in the U.S.,” Harris said. “But they never did anything to reinforce them or build excitement. There was no long-term strategy behind those launches.”
Even those brands that did enter via Hudson’s Bay will likely pivot to direct-to-consumer strategies or seek alternative retail partners.
“Most of the brands already had or were working on opening their own stores,” Harris said. “They’ll go direct to the consumer.”
The Real Apparel Winners in Canada
With Hudson’s Bay out of the equation, attention turns to the current leaders in Canadian apparel retail.
“The number one apparel retailer in Canada right now is TJX/Winners,” Harris confirmed. “With over 325 stores, they dominate the space.”
Following Winners are brands with strong market identities such as Lululemon and Mark’s, which Harris says are successful because of their clarity and consistency.
“If you go to Winners, you’re looking for discounted brands. Lululemon has a clear niche, and so does Mark’s. That clarity is key.”
Even warehouse clubs like Costco have carved out a sizable share of the apparel market, driven by price-conscious consumers seeking value.
“Consumers are trading down,” Harris said. “They don’t have as much disposable income, and they’re looking for value propositions. That’s why retailers like Winners and Costco are thriving.”
No Growth in Apparel Market in 2024
Trendex’s data shows a sobering picture for the broader apparel sector. “There was absolutely no growth in the Canadian apparel market in 2024,” Harris revealed. “None. Zero.”
In his view, this stagnation is driven by shifting consumer behaviour, with shoppers turning to lower-cost retailers or fast-fashion platforms like Shein.
“People don’t have the money they used to, and they’re making choices that reflect that. They’re finding value wherever they can.”
Comark, Northern Reflections, and the COVID Excuse
Harris also cautions against blaming current retail failures entirely on COVID-19.
“There’s always a retailer blaming COVID,” he said. “But at what point does the statute of limitations expire? If three retailers filed for creditor protection, what about the other 300 that didn’t?”
He notes that few companies admit missteps or flawed business models in their CCAA filings.
“It’s always external factors,” he said. “They never take responsibility for poor decisions.”
The Decline of the Middle Market—Or Is It?
While many observers have declared the death of the retail middle market, Harris sees a more nuanced picture.
“I cringe when I read these sweeping statements that the middle is dead,” he said. “Retailers like Simons and Uniqlo are doing very well in what I’d call the upper-middle.”
The problem isn’t the middle per se, he argues—it’s retailers that lack a clear market focus.
“It’s creative destruction,” Harris explained. “Those who fail to adapt or differentiate themselves get weeded out. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t a healthy market for well-positioned mid-tier players.”
A Catastrophic Decline in Sales
Internal Hudson’s Bay documents revealed that in-store sales dropped by almost 33% year-over-year between 2023 and 2024.
“Can you imagine if your income dropped by 33%? That’s catastrophic,” Harris said. “And I’m sure expenses didn’t go down. If anything, they went up.”
The financial strain was intensified by the company’s awkward positioning in the market—neither high-end nor value-driven.
“They were upper-middle, but without a clear focus. That made them vulnerable,” Harris said.
Unanswered Questions Around Accountability
Perhaps most troubling, according to Harris, is the lack of accountability at the top.
“Both HBC and Sears Canada were destroyed by poor leadership,” he said. “And yet there’s no accountability. The people responsible are walking away, buying condos in Boca.”
Harris says this points to a broader issue of how retail is governed when financial engineers are at the helm.
“It’s a failure of oversight and strategy. Retailers need people who understand consumers, not just spreadsheets.”
Final Thoughts: Will Anyone Really Notice?
For many Canadians, the loss of Hudson’s Bay stores might not be felt all that deeply.
“From a consumer standpoint, I don’t think most people give a damn,” Harris concluded. “The people who shopped there were older, loyal to the points system. But for younger shoppers? The Bay was irrelevant.”
While its closure marks the end of an era, the data suggests that Canada’s apparel market will carry on largely unfazed—dispersing sales among established players with stronger brand identities and modern retail strategies.
As Harris succinctly put it:
“It’s not a retail tragedy. It’s a long-overdue reality.”
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This is best analysis I’ve read so far. I’d add that Winners/TJMaxx will likely be next to see a decline. I’ve walked through a few of their stores recently and traffic seems to be lower since the pandemic. Some of their customers are the ones who might have shopped at the Bay a few decades ago. The real energy seems to be at Uniqlo. I’ve introduced a few friends who once shopped at the Bay, Simon’s, H&M even Zara and they all seem drawn to Uniqlo more and more.
In Toronto, there is now a Winners in Dundas square, and another one across the street inside Eaton centre. Two too of the same stores close together, if you ask me. In order for “decline” to be declared, shouldn’t one of the stores close first?
This is best analysis I’ve read so far. I’d add that Winners/TJMaxx will likely be next to see a decline. I’ve walked through a few of their stores recently and traffic seems to be lower since the pandemic. Some of their customers are the ones who might have shopped at the Bay a few decades ago.
The real energy seems to be at Uniqlo. I’ve introduced a few friends who once shopped at the Bay, Simon’s, H&M even Zara and they all seem drawn to Uniqlo more and more.