Grocery prices generally softened between June and July, but substantial increases for several protein products prevented the overall food basket from declining, according to new data released by the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University.
The Lab said its 50-item food basket increased by 0.3% from June to July, rising by approximately $0.89 to an equal-city average of $298.38. The analysis covers nearly 8,000 price observations from 22 grocery banners in 13 Canadian cities.
It said its partner, GroceryPulse.Ca, monitors retail food prices regularly, allowing the Lab to release data ahead of Statistics Canada’s monthly Consumer Price Index report. The findings provide an early indication of emerging grocery-price movements, it added.
Despite the modest increase in the total basket, price relief was widespread. Thirty of the 50 products tracked declined, 17 increased and three remained essentially unchanged. Among comparable store-level observations, 62.3% of prices did not change, said the report.
“The national headline appears remarkably calm, but it conceals a highly uneven month,” said Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, Director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University. “Most products became less expensive, but a small number of significant protein increases were large enough to offset those savings.”
The meat-and-fish category increased by 6.5%, adding approximately $5.72 to the average basket. Bacon recorded the largest increase at 28.9%, followed by Atlantic salmon at 25.8% and pork loin chops at 24.2%. Bacon prices increased in all 13 cities, while salmon and pork chops increased in 12. Chicken breast prices moved sharply in the opposite direction, declining by 26.7% across the national sample. Median chicken breast prices fell in all 13 cities, explained the report.
“This is primarily a protein-volatility story, not evidence of broad-based food inflation,” said Charlebois. “Bacon, salmon and pork rose rapidly, while chicken breast became substantially cheaper. Consumers are therefore seeing very different price signals within the same department.”
Seven of the nine food category baskets declined in July. Vegetables provided the greatest relief, falling by 6.6%. Broccoli declined by 23.9%, romaine lettuce by 6.6%, onions by 5.0% and tomatoes by 4.7%. Bakery products fell by 4.2%, household products by 3.5%, beverages by 2.1% and dairy products by 1.9%. Frozen products were the only category other than meat and fish to increase, rising by 2.8%, added the report.
Regional results varied considerably. Quebec City posted the largest increase in its 50-item basket at 6.1%, followed by Montreal at 4.2%. Calgary and Saskatoon each increased by approximately 2.4%. The strongest declines were recorded in St. John’s at 4.2%, Halifax at 3.6%, Ottawa at 2.9% and Moncton at 2.7%. Overall, seven city baskets increased while six declined, it said.
“Regional variation remains one of the most important features of Canada’s grocery market,” said Charlebois. “A national average can be useful, but it does not necessarily reflect what consumers are experiencing locally. In July, households in Quebec City and St. John’s faced almost opposite price movements.”
The gap between the highest- and lowest-cost city baskets narrowed slightly, from $42.51 in June to $40.30 in July. Charlottetown recorded the highest July basket at $318.48, while Ottawa recorded the lowest at $278.18.
Key findings
- The national 50-item basket increased by 0.3%.
- Thirty of 50 tracked products declined.
- Meat and fish increased by 6.5%.
- Bacon increased by 28.9%.
- Atlantic salmon increased by 25.8%.
- Pork loin chops increased by 24.2%.
- Chicken breast declined by 26.7%.
- Vegetables declined by 6.6%.
- Quebec City recorded the largest city-level increase at 6.1%.
- St. John’s recorded the largest decline at 4.2%.
More from Retail Insider:
