Smaller baskets, more frequent purchases and the rise of store brands reveal a consumer who is constantly searching for value.
The Canadian grocery shopper is changing. Recent consumer data from NielsenIQ describe households that are buying more frequently, carrying smaller baskets, visiting more types of retailers and showing less loyalty to both traditional supermarkets and national brands.
This is not simply an inflation story. It is a story about adaptation. After years of inflation, Canadians have become tactical shoppers. They divide purchases among retailers, follow promotions closely and reconsider which brands and proteins still offer value.
In the latest rolling 13-week measurement, the average buyer recorded 63.6 purchase occasions, compared with 58.1 in the period ending in early April. That equals nearly five purchases a week, but it does not mean five grocery-store visits. The measure captures transactions across supermarkets, warehouse clubs, mass merchants, drugstores, dollar stores and online channels.
The direction is unmistakable: Canadians are purchasing more often. Meanwhile, spending per transaction fell from $39.42 to $38.08, a decline of 3.4 per cent. Consumers are making smaller purchases, but repeating them more frequently. Smaller baskets do not necessarily produce savings when they are filled more often.
This looks like cherry-picking. A household may buy produce at a supermarket, meat at a warehouse club, pantry goods at a discount retailer and something else online. The weekly grocery trip is becoming a series of smaller transactions across several channels.
Traditional grocers remain Canada’s largest food-retail channel, but their grip is weakening. Over the latest 52 weeks, they captured 47.8 per cent of spending, down 1.3 percentage points. Less than $48 of every $100 spent across the retail market now goes to a conventional grocery store.
Warehouse and mass merchants gained market share. Warehouse-club spending increased 11.5 per cent and product volume rose 6.9 per cent. Ethnic stores also grew strongly, with spending up 12.1 per cent and purchases up 9.7 per cent.
Spending online climbed 17.9 per cent, while the number of products purchased jumped 22.1 per cent. Because purchases grew faster than spending, consumers may be finding better value online or choosing less expensive products. At traditional grocers, spending increased 3.1 per cent while purchases rose only 0.8 per cent. Shoppers paid more but carried home almost the same amount.
The search for value is also strengthening private labels. Store brands now represent 24.3 per cent of physical volume but only 18.8 per cent of spending. About 24 of every 100 kilograms purchased are store-brand products, yet they account for less than $19 of every $100 spent. The gap is consistent with their lower-price positioning.
Private-label volume increased 1.5 per cent over the latest 52 weeks, while national-brand volume declined 0.2 per cent. Dollar sales rose 3 per cent for both. Shoppers are purchasing more store-brand product, while national brands are collecting more revenue without selling more volume.
Even store brands cannot protect consumers from pressure in animal proteins. Private-label meat and seafood volume fell 4 per cent while dollar sales increased 2 per cent. Canadians bought less but still spent more. That is the affordability challenge in one sentence.
The 12-week category results reveal a reshuffling of protein choices. Cottage-cheese volume increased 17 per cent. For every 10 kilograms purchased a year earlier, shoppers are now buying the equivalent of 11.7 kilograms. Dollar sales increased even faster, by 25 per cent.
One tracked seafood segment also grew, with volume up 13 per cent, but salmon moved in the opposite direction. Salmon volume fell 36 per cent: the equivalent of 10 kilograms became only 6.4 kilograms. Yet dollar sales declined just 23 per cent, indicating a higher average price or product mix.
Processed cheese spreads suffered a similar retreat. Volume dropped 22 per cent, meaning the equivalent of 10 kilograms became 7.8 kilograms. Tracked meat volume declined 10 per cent, from the equivalent of 10 kilograms to nine.
Canadians are not abandoning animal protein. They are reallocating it. Cottage cheese is gaining momentum, helped by protein content, versatility and value. Some seafood products are growing, while salmon, processed cheese spreads and certain meat products are losing volume.
The lesson for grocers and manufacturers is straightforward. Today’s consumer is no longer passively absorbing higher prices. Loyalty has become conditional. A familiar brand, convenient location or rewards program still matters, but only when the value is credible.
National brands should not assume that higher dollar sales mean a healthy business. Revenue can increase while customers buy less product. Traditional grocers face the same warning: they command the largest share of spending, but shoppers are moving parts of their baskets elsewhere.
The defining characteristic of today’s shopper is not thrift alone. It is fragmentation. Canadians are spreading purchases across more places, making more transactions, buying smaller baskets and switching products when the value equation fails. They are still buying food – just very differently.
