Retailers should begin holiday advertising earlier and spread campaigns across the shopping season as consumers increasingly make purchasing decisions well before Black Friday, according to marketing experts.
A survey by Accenture found that 81 per cent of Canadians plan to start holiday shopping before Black Friday and Cyber Monday, up from 47 per cent in 2025. The trend follows a similar pattern during Halloween, when nearly half of shoppers began purchasing costumes and other seasonal items in September or earlier.
The findings suggest retailers that concentrate most of their advertising budgets in the final weeks before Christmas risk missing consumers who have already made purchasing decisions, according to Donatas Smailys, co-founder and CEO of creator advertising platform Billo.
“Many brands spend most of their ad budget in the last weeks of a holiday. Halloween showed what that costs: by late October, a lot of shoppers have already bought their costumes,” said Smailys.
“The holidays give brands a second shot, and the ones that roll out their ads in stages will catch shoppers while they’re still deciding what to buy.”
Holiday spending starts earlier
The shift in shopping patterns comes as retailers prepare for the November and December holiday season, with forecasts suggesting a relatively small portion of online spending will occur during the traditional Cyber Week sales period.
Adobe forecasts that Cyber Week, the five days from U.S. Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, will account for 17.3 per cent of the $275.1 billion consumers are expected to spend online in November and December.
Adobe also projects $95.8 billion in online spending during October, an increase of eight per cent from the previous year. Social media’s share of holiday online revenue is forecast to grow 17 per cent, compared with four per cent for paid search.
The figures point to an opportunity for retailers to reach consumers earlier through social media and creator-produced advertising, rather than relying primarily on promotions concentrated around major shopping events.
Three stages of holiday advertising
Smailys recommends dividing holiday advertising into three stages, with different messages and video content tailored to consumer priorities as the season progresses.
In early November, shoppers are primarily looking for gift ideas. Advertising should demonstrate how products are used, allowing consumers to visualize potential purchases. Adobe forecasts discounts of up to 14 per cent off listed prices during this period.
During the Thanksgiving-to-Cyber Monday shopping window, the focus shifts to promotions and deals. Discounts are expected to peak at up to 30 per cent during Cyber Week, while 63 per cent of online spending on Thanksgiving is forecast to take place on mobile devices.
Advertising during that period should prominently display prices and deal expiration dates, Smailys said.
By December, delivery timelines and product availability become more important as consumers work to complete their holiday shopping. Discounts are expected to settle between 10 and 15 per cent for most of the month.
Retailers should use advertising to communicate ordering deadlines for Christmas delivery and identify stores where customers can pick up products, according to Smailys.
He said businesses can produce advertising for all three stages during a single filming session by planning the intended purpose of each video in advance.
“A brand can get all three videos from one shoot if it decides what each one is for before filming. The same creator can film the unboxing, the price comparison and a quick ‘order by’ clip in one afternoon. Filming this way costs far less than three separate campaigns and keeps the brand in front of shoppers for the whole season,” Donatas Smailys said.
Four steps for retailers ahead of the holiday season
With November approaching, Smailys outlined four steps businesses can take to adjust their advertising strategies.
The first is to publish holiday videos before November, giving early shoppers gift ideas before major promotional events begin. Retailers should also review the performance of their Halloween advertising to identify which content formats and creators generated results at different points in the season.
He also recommends allocating a larger share of advertising budgets to creators and social media, reflecting the growing role of social platforms in product discovery.
The fourth recommendation is to use artificial intelligence tools to help develop advertising concepts and scripts before creators produce the final videos.
The recommendations come as businesses face a shorter window to reach consumers who are increasingly beginning their holiday purchases before the traditional peak shopping period.
“Halloween was the rehearsal, and the brands that learned from it are already creating their holiday videos. However, waiting for Black Friday means paying peak ad prices to reach shoppers who have mostly decided what to buy,” said Smailys.
In an interview with Retail Insider, Smailys spoke about the trend.
What factors are causing brands to concentrate their advertising budgets in the final weeks of a holiday season, despite evidence that consumers are starting their shopping earlier?
Mostly habit and how results get reported. Ad results in the last weeks before the holiday season look good in reports because they reach people who are already about to buy. So the sales are attributed to the ad that ran last. Because of this, the ads that actually helped the shopper choose the product are undervalued.
Also, many brands, especially smaller ones, fear spending their ad budgets too early, before shoppers are ready to buy. But the latest data shows that timing has changed, and people are buying earlier than ever. Accenture’s survey found that most Canadians don’t wait until the final weeks to choose what they will buy during the year’s biggest sales. So if businesses are too late with their ads, they can lose even their most loyal customers to those who launched promotional campaigns earlier.
Accenture’s survey found that 81% of Canadians plan to begin holiday shopping before Black Friday and Cyber Monday, up from 47% in 2025. What does this shift tell us about changing consumer behaviour, and how should retailers adjust their marketing strategies?
It tells us that shoppers are planning because of financial pressures. Accenture expects Canadians to spend $717 on holiday gifts, down nearly 4% from last year, so people are spreading purchases over more weeks and comparing more before buying. Deloitte found shoppers will visit an average of 16 stores and websites for gifts this year.
Retailers should try reaching buyers with gift ideas before the big sales and giving them a reason to buy from you once the discounts start.
How should brands structure their holiday advertising campaigns from early November through December to address shoppers’ changing priorities, from gift inspiration to promotional deals and delivery deadlines?
I’d split the season into three stages, each with its own job.
- In early November, shoppers are looking for ideas, so videos should show the product in use: someone unwrapping it, wearing it, or using it at home, so the viewer can picture who it’s for.
- From Black Friday to Cyber Monday, shoppers are looking for deals. So videos should show the price in Canadian dollars and when the deal ends.
- In December, getting the gift on time matters more than price, so videos should say when to order for delivery by December 25 and where to pick the item up in store.
With advertising costs often rising during peak shopping periods, how can retailers determine the right timing and allocation of their marketing budgets across social media, creator-led video content and other advertising channels?
Start by following the shopper’s timeline. If most shoppers start before Black Friday, a meaningful share of the budget should be spent before Black Friday, when ad space costs less and fewer brands are competing for attention. A practical approach is to test several ads at low budgets in early November, then put more money behind the ones that perform before costs rise.
On channels, the money should go where products are being found. More shoppers now discover gifts in their social feeds, and through creators, so short creator videos deserve a bigger share than they used to get.
With Halloween serving as an example of the risks of launching campaigns too late, what practical steps should retailers take now to improve their holiday advertising performance, and how can they measure whether an earlier, staged approach is delivering results?
First, review Halloween. Look at which videos, formats, and creators worked at each point of the season, and which ads ran after most shoppers had already bought.
Then make sure you get the first holiday videos live before November, focused on gift ideas rather than discounts. Don’t hesitate to use AI to speed up the groundwork, like drafting ideas and scripts, but use a real creator to film the planned content.
Across the season, compare your cost per sale with last year’s, and check whether the creators who won in November held up in December. If early ads are working, the brand will need less of its budget at peak prices to hit the same sales.
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