November retail sales in Canada brought a mixed bag of results, with overall sales up 1.8% year- YOY, according to Statistics Canada. However, excluding automotive, food, and pharmacy sectors, (All Store Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies), the increase dwindles to a mere 0.1% YOY. This is a surprisingly low figure, especially considering the season typically associated with gift purchasing.
November 2024 was expected to be a robust month for retail sales in Canada, driven by several key factors:
- Black Friday: This major shopping event fell in November, expected to boost sales significantly.
- Taylor Swift in Toronto: The pop sensation’s concerts in Toronto were anticipated to spur consumer spending in related merchandise and tourism.
- Early Holiday Shopping: Reports indicated that consumers were shopping earlier for the holidays, potentially spreading out the spending surge.
Despite these positives, the actual sales figures were underwhelming. Several factors contributed to this unexpected outcome.
- Lost Cyber Monday: One significant factor was the timing of Cyber Monday, which fell in December this year, effectively removing its impact from November’s sales figures. This shift likely disrupted the momentum that typically follows Black Friday, resulting in a subdued sales performance for the month.
- Canada Post Strike: The Canada Post strike created substantial hurdles for retailers and consumers alike. Shipping delays and supply chain disruptions meant that many online orders were either delayed or cancelled, leading to missed sales opportunities.
- Weather Woes: November also saw major weather shifts across Canada. Harsh weather conditions likely deterred consumers from venturing out to main streets and shopping centres, further impacting retail foot traffic and sales.
The rate cut from the Bank of Canada in November was anticipated to boost consumer spending, particularly in higher ticket categories. However, the impact was minimal:
- Furniture Stores: Down -0.1% YOY
- Home Furnishings Stores: Down -3.2% YOY
- Electronics and Appliances Stores: Down -2.9% YOY
Conversely, there was a notable boost in sales for Motor Vehicles and Parts Dealers (up 5.8% YOY), continuing the trend observed in October. This increase could be attributed to incentives aimed at clearing out older inventory to make way for newer models, as well as the rate cut affecting financing/lease rates.
The delayed impact of Cyber Monday might result in a sales lift in December, as consumers catch up on their holiday shopping. However, the impact of the US election will also undoubtedly have an effect, even before President-Elect Trump takes office. Currently, JCWG is thinking about:
- Can December retail sales compensate for the lackluster performance in November?
- Are US tariffs expected to be implemented on February 1 as predicted?
- Is a trade war between Canada and the US anticipated by spring?
- Which Canadian-made products are likely to receive the biggest boost?
- How are YOU preparing for the anticipated changes in the cost of goods in Canada?
For support in developing strategies to navigate this uncertainty for Canadian retail in 2025, you can reach out to the team of retail experts at JCWG.
Retail Sales by Product Category, Same Month Comparison
| Sales for the Month of November | Nov-24 | Nov-23 | YOY |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Stores | 70,489,109 | 69,242,876 | 1.80% |
| Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers | 19,200,459 | 18,156,387 | 5.75% |
| Gasoline Stations | 6,132,490 | 6,487,100 | -5.47% |
| All Stores Less Automotive | 45,156,160 | 44,599,389 | 1.25% |
| Food and Beverage Stores | 12,760,194 | 12,300,370 | 3.74% |
| Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores* | 9,120,250 | 8,684,172 | 5.02% |
| Convenience Stores | 660,848 | 662,780 | -0.29% |
| Specialty Food Stores | 856,422 | 879,308 | -2.60% |
| Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores | 2,122,674 | 2,074,110 | 2.34% |
| Health and Personal Care Stores | 6,006,068 | 5,936,892 | 1.17% |
| All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies | 26,389,898 | 26,362,127 | 0.11% |
| General Merchandise Stores | 9,691,004 | 9,559,488 | 1.38% |
| Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronic and Appliance Stores | 4,466,890 | 4,564,763 | -2.14% |
| Furniture Stores | 1,307,437 | 1,308,784 | -0.10% |
| Home Furnishings Stores | 830,361 | 857,838 | -3.20% |
| Electronics and Appliance Stores | 2,329,093 | 2,398,142 | -2.88% |
| Clothing and Accessories Stores | 4,494,515 | 4,410,504 | 1.90% |
| Clothing Stores | 3,497,671 | 3,434,886 | 1.83% |
| Shoe Stores | 500,060 | 507,809 | -1.53% |
| Jewellery, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores | 496,784 | 467,809 | 6.19% |
| Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores | 4,074,024 | 3,991,502 | 2.07% |
| Building Material and Garden Equipment | 3,663,466 | 3,835,870 | -4.49% |
| Miscellaneous Store Retailers | 2,562,763 | 2,398,873 | 6.83% |
| Cannabis Retailers | 452,848 | 428,981 | 5.56% |
Retail Sales by Store Category, Year to Date Comparison
| Year-to-Date Sales Ending November | Nov-24 | Nov-23 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Stores | 731,002,491 | 723,259,540 | 1.07% |
| Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers | 202,753,939 | 198,419,842 | 2.18% |
| Gasoline Stations | 70,728,353 | 72,797,247 | -2.84% |
| All Stores Less Automotive | 457,520,199 | 452,042,451 | 1.21% |
| Food and Beverage Stores | 140,008,747 | 138,259,075 | 1.27% |
| Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores* | 99,634,110 | 97,417,393 | 2.28% |
| Convenience Stores | 7,890,225 | 8,173,174 | -3.46% |
| Specialty Food Stores | 9,618,894 | 9,277,361 | 3.68% |
| Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores | 22,865,520 | 23,391,143 | -2.25% |
| Health and Personal Care Stores | 61,132,684 | 58,594,173 | 4.33% |
| All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies | 256,378,768 | 255,189,203 | 0.47% |
| General Merchandise Stores | 97,249,149 | 93,633,918 | 3.86% |
| Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronic and Appliance Stores | 38,884,376 | 39,401,525 | -1.31% |
| Furniture Stores | 12,740,925 | 13,089,985 | -2.67% |
| Home Furnishings Stores | 7,596,813 | 7,779,976 | -2.35% |
| Electronics and Appliance Stores | 18,546,640 | 18,531,562 | 0.08% |
| Clothing and Accessories Stores | 37,137,333 | 36,963,179 | 0.47% |
| Clothing Stores | 28,795,615 | 28,574,167 | 0.77% |
| Shoe Stores | 4,330,182 | 4,419,102 | -2.01% |
| Jewellery, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores | 4,011,537 | 3,969,908 | 1.05% |
| Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores | 40,342,706 | 41,508,425 | -2.81% |
| Building Material and Garden Equipment | 42,765,202 | 39,846,290 | 7.33% |
| Miscellaneous Store Retailers | 26,293,819 | 24,560,644 | 7.06% |
| Cannabis Retailers | 4,705,166 | 4,284,877 | 9.81% |
Ecommerce Sales
| Nov-24 | Nov-23 | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ecommerce Sales, YTD | 42,975,073 | 40,391,908 | 6.40% |
| Ecommerce Sales, YOY | 5,250,354 | 4,935,028 | 6.39% |
Regional Sales, Year to Date Comparison
| Region | Year-to-Date, 2024 | Year-to-Date, 2023 | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| British Columbia | 98,185,507 | 98,134,978 | 0.05% |
| Vancouver | 49,023,116 | 48,517,529 | 1.04% |
| Alberta | 94,367,215 | 93,275,485 | 1.17% |
| Prairies* | 48,521,376 | 47,583,364 | 1.97% |
| Ontario | 272,397,757 | 270,754,277 | 0.61% |
| Toronto | 122,597,612 | 122,869,673 | -0.22% |
| Québec | 164,593,196 | 162,241,746 | 1.45% |
| Montréal | 81,986,490 | 81,253,130 | 0.90% |
| Atlantic Canada | 50,344,304 | 48,801,769 | 3.16% |
| Territories | 2,593,136 | 2,467,921 | 5.07% |
NATIONAL RETAIL BULLETIN
Thank you J.C. Williams Group for this report.
