Canadian grocery shoppers could see price hikes as early as next week, as tariffs set to be implemented on Saturday create ripple effects across supply chains. With the United States imposing a 25% tariff on Mexican goods, the impact will be felt north of the border regardless of whether Ottawa retaliates.
“We’re looking at an almost immediate price increase for certain products coming from Mexico,” said Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, a Canadian professor and researcher of food distribution and policy at Dalhousie University, in an interview. “Avocados, papayas, and other fresh produce items are going to be impacted right away—likely within a week.”
Why Mexican Imports Matter
Canada imports a significant portion of its fresh produce from Mexico, particularly during winter months when domestic production is low. While the tariffs are being imposed by the U.S. on goods coming from Mexico, Canada’s reliance on American distribution routes means higher costs will be passed along to Canadian consumers.
“If a product travels through the U.S. before reaching Canada, that 25% tariff is going to be built into the price,” Charlebois explained. “It doesn’t matter what Ottawa does, the prices are going up.”
Beyond fruits and vegetables, other food categories could also be affected, depending on Ottawa’s response. “We could see additional tariffs applied on retail items like orange juice and alcohol, or even on ingredients used in food manufacturing,” he noted. “For example, a product like peanut butter could get more expensive if the cost of peanuts from the U.S. rises.”
When Will Prices Rise?
The impact could be swift. Charlebois predicts that Canadian consumers will see higher produce prices in a matter of days. “If the tariffs are implemented as expected, grocery store prices could reflect these changes in about a week,” he said. “It’s not something that will take months to work through the system—it’s immediate.”
However, the full extent of the increases will depend on whether retailers and food manufacturers choose to absorb the higher costs or pass them directly to consumers. “Some businesses may try to mitigate the impact by adjusting supply chains or absorbing some costs temporarily,” Charlebois noted. “But that’s not sustainable long-term.”
Uncertainty in the Market
While short-term price hikes are expected, the long-term uncertainty surrounding trade policies could have even broader implications.
“The bigger issue isn’t just the immediate impact of the tariffs—it’s the uncertainty they create,” said Charlebois. “Businesses don’t know what’s going to happen in three weeks or three months, which makes planning difficult.”
He pointed out that this could lead to companies reconsidering their investment strategies. “If you’re a food distributor or manufacturer, do you invest in new supply chains? Do you pass the costs to consumers? Do you hold off on expansion plans? These are real questions being asked.”
Could Canada Become More Self-Sufficient?
With disruptions to the North American food supply chain, some may wonder whether Canada could increase domestic food production. While greenhouse and vertical farming operations have grown in recent years, much of their output is currently exported to the U.S.
“A lot of our greenhouse-grown produce actually goes to the U.S. because it’s more profitable,” Charlebois explained. “If tariffs make Canadian products less competitive in the U.S. market, we may see more of those items on Canadian grocery store shelves, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be cheaper.”
Ottawa’s Next Move
The Canadian government has stated that it will retaliate if the U.S. implements tariffs on Mexican goods. “I expect two announcements on Saturday—one from Washington and one from Ottawa,” Charlebois said. “Once we see what Canada does, we’ll have a better understanding of the full impact on our food basket.”
For consumers, the immediate concern is affordability. “If you’re planning a Super Bowl party, be prepared to pay more for guacamole,” Charlebois warned. “Avocados are a staple import from Mexico, and there’s no way around the fact that they will become more expensive.”
What’s Next?
While grocery prices are expected to rise quickly, the broader economic consequences could take longer to unfold. “The real question is whether these tariffs are a temporary political move or the beginning of a longer trade dispute,” Charlebois said. “The uncertainty is what worries businesses the most.”
For Canadian consumers, the message is clear: brace for higher grocery bills in the coming weeks, and watch closely for developments out of Washington and Ottawa.
“This isn’t just about tariffs,” Charlebois emphasized. “It’s about how deeply integrated our food supply chains are—and what happens when that system is disrupted.”
What should we do? How should we cope? As an average Joe, what are my options to stretch my dollar to be able to afford already unoffordable fruits and vegetables?
Read the label before you buy and be open to other options.
I don’t buy grocery products grown or processed in the U.S. All of my dairy comes from Agropur, a Canadian cooperative. My eggs, poultry, fish and the majority of my fruits and vegetables are locally grown and when I don’t have access to local produce, I buy those shipped from other countries – blueberries from Canada in season and from Latin America in the winter, oranges from South Africa and Morocco, locally grown frozen vegetables, lettuce, tomatoes and peppers from local hothouses. My baguettes come hot out of the oven at a bakery two blocks from home and are fifty cents a loaf cheaper than at the supermarket. I don’t buy a lot of processed food. My orange juice is freshly squeezed. Just a single orange provides the entire days worth of vitamin C. The rest of the time, I drink coffee, tea or water. I’ve been doing this for years so I don’t need to make any changes.
I’m lucky to live in a city that’s a major port and is surrounded by farms. This isn’t the case everywhere in Canada, so it’s up to us all to put pressure on local businesses to provide with more local options.
This is all so disturbing. I don’t know how lower class families are going to be able to eat!
I’ll be eating lots of carrots, turnips, parsnips, onions, potatoes, apples and Canadian frozen vegetables and blueberries just like my grandparents did in winter. It is really unfortunate that Mexican produce will be taxed in transit, so that’s off my list. I have a jar of Smuckers jam in my pantry that I will not open until this is over as it was made in USA. Going to look for something from Canada or UK/Europe instead or make some apple jelly.
Read labels and buy local and Canada!!! If we all do this it will make a difference. Product of Canada = 98%; Made in Canada =51%; Prepared in Canada = not much / avoid.
I hope that the retailers stop stocking products from USA or at least put them where they are hard to see/reach. We need to diversify purchasing so that this never happens again.
Unless you have growing teenagers in the house, it’s possible to eat healthy without spending a lot of money by cooking simple foods from scratch. Stay away from over-processed food and snacks and eat when you feel hungry. If you have a backyard or balcony, grow some of your own. Buy in-season produce in bulk and freeze them.
If you live outside a city this is easier. I have extended family members that still go wild berry picking in summer and ice fishing in winter. Anything they can’t harvest themselves is either a trade with neighbours or from Costco. Their freezers are always crammed with food.
It just keeps getting more and more less affordable for the average consumer to survive. Let alone, another Carbon Tax increase in April. You’re either going to be rich or poor. I don’t think there’s going to be a “middle class” family anymore. Kids these days don’t even talk about owning a home one day or having a family. I NEVER imagined a country like this! Things were supposed to be better for our children, but it’s gotten worse! There was hope for the future during COVID. We see that after the pandemic, consumers are gouged at the grocery store, there’s a supply chain issue at some product and vehicle and people are angry, fed up and we see theft and break-ins at an all time high. The country is falling apart.
People aren’t watching eachother’s back anymore.. they’re watching their own. Hope we can support local, Canadian products and businesses.
My concern is that the corporate greed will make the pencil pushers see how the demand is changing and they will increase their price further because they can as the consumer will buy it because it’s Canadian.
Please, make sense for once and keep your prices so the people will shop and support fairly your business and product because the consumer is being fair to you as well.
Why would products currently on the shelves have their prices raised
Immediately ?