Canadian families are heading into the 2026 back-to-school season expecting to spend more, but new research suggests the increase has less to do with stronger purchasing power than with the rising cost of completing increasingly expensive shopping lists.
Field Agent Canada found that 40% of surveyed households expect to spend more on back-to-school shopping than they did last year, while 39% anticipate spending about the same and 21% expect to spend less. At the same time, 67% said inflation will have a greater impact on their back-to-school shopping compared with last year.
For Jeff Doucette, Founder and General Manager of Field Agent Canada, the combination points to continued pressure on household budgets rather than an increase in discretionary spending.
“My interpretation is that consumers are just having to spend more to get what they need,” Doucette told Retail Insider. “There is no real slack in most family budgets to buy more. They are just trying to get what they need and not blow their budget.”
Field Agent’s 2026 Canadian Back-to-School Shopper research examines spending intentions across school supplies, food, apparel, beauty and personal-care categories. Many of the core questions were answered by more than 700 Canadian consumers, with smaller samples used for category-specific questions.
Inflation Pressure Becomes Part of the Shopping Routine
The persistence of inflation concerns is particularly notable when the results are compared with Field Agent’s research from a year earlier. In 2025, 39% of respondents expected to spend more on back-to-school purchases and 25% planned to spend less. This year, the share expecting to spend more has edged up to 40%, while the proportion planning to spend less has declined to 21%.
Yet the share saying inflation will have a greater effect on their shopping is unchanged at 67%. Rather than signalling that consumers are becoming less concerned about elevated prices, Doucette said shoppers appear to have adjusted their behaviour to a prolonged higher-cost environment.
“Shoppers have definitely snapped out of inflation denial,” he said. “They may be swapping in products that are cheaper brands in order to get everything on the list without blowing the budget.”
Higher spending, in other words, should not automatically be interpreted as households purchasing more merchandise. The findings instead point to consumers trying to complete necessary purchases while becoming more selective about products, brands and retailers.
That behaviour fits the broader Canadian consumer backdrop. The Bank of Canada’s second-quarter Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations found that high prices and economic uncertainty continue to hold back spending plans, while consumers’ near-term inflation expectations remain elevated. Back-to-school purchases can be difficult to defer, however, leaving families to manage the cost of school supplies, clothing, footwear, food and other necessities within already constrained budgets.
Deals Are Breaking Down Brand Loyalty
Field Agent’s findings suggest retailers and consumer brands are competing for shoppers increasingly willing to move elsewhere when the economics make sense. Among respondents asked what would influence them to consider a new back-to-school brand, 85% identified a deal or discount, compared with 55% who cited positive online ratings and reviews.
Doucette said that willingness to move between brands is also influencing where households choose to shop.
“I especially see this within retailers, and this is fuelling the rise of discount grocers as well as Dollarama and the continued strength of Walmart,” he said. “In addition, we see Temu and Amazon playing a significant role in back-to-school, and shoppers are not shy to shop online.”
The behaviour is consistent with other Canadian back-to-school research released this year. Retail Council of Canada and Caddle estimate the Canadian K–12 back-to-school market at more than $4.5 billion. Their research, based on a nationally representative sample of 1,398 Canadian parents with children in kindergarten through Grade 12, found that 85% are actively seeking deals before selecting a retailer.
For retailers, consumer spending has not disappeared, but competition for those dollars has intensified. Families still have shopping lists to complete, yet there is less incentive to remain loyal to a particular brand or banner when a comparable product is available at a more attractive price elsewhere.
Walmart, Dollarama and Costco Lead In-Store Shopping
The value orientation is clearly visible in Field Agent’s retailer rankings. Among respondents planning to purchase school supplies in person, 91% said they were likely to visit Walmart, followed by Dollarama at 66%, Costco at 61%, Real Canadian Superstore at 46% and Staples/Bureau en Gros at 44%.
Those positions are broadly consistent with the previous year. In Field Agent’s 2025 study, Walmart reached 94%, Dollarama 66%, Costco 58%, Real Canadian Superstore 50% and Staples 41%. The more significant story is therefore not a dramatic reshuffling of the leading retailers, but the sustained strength of mass merchants, dollar stores, warehouse clubs and other operators able to compete aggressively on price and everyday value.
Doucette said the environment is becoming increasingly difficult for retailers without a clear value proposition, especially in categories where consumers see relatively little differentiation between products.
“At the end of the day, shoppers have to move to these retailers in order to get their back-to-school needs and still make ends meet,” he said. “Being a non-discounter is a very scary place to be when it comes to CPG items and ‘commodity’ items like pencils or notebooks.”
The results fit a wider shift visible across Canadian retail. Discount grocery banners have become increasingly important as households scrutinize food spending, while Walmart and Costco benefit from broad assortments that allow shoppers to combine school supplies with apparel, groceries and household purchases. Dollarama, meanwhile, remains firmly embedded in the back-to-school consideration set for basic, easily substituted merchandise.
Amazon May Capture Spending Before Shoppers Reach Stores
Online shopping presents another competitive challenge for physical retailers. Amazon.ca is the dominant online destination in Field Agent’s survey, with 79% of respondents saying they were likely to visit the platform for school supplies. Walmart ranked second online at 36%, followed by Costco at 25% and Temu at 22%.
Doucette believes the implications go beyond consumers simply researching products online before visiting a store. For basic back-to-school merchandise, he argues that Amazon may increasingly capture straightforward purchases before the shopper makes an in-person trip.
“I think that shoppers are trusting Amazon to always be fairly priced and the added ease of having it delivered to home saves a trip to the store,” he said. “I think the danger for bricks-and-mortar retailers is that shoppers are doing their Amazon shop first and buying the rest at physical retail. A big chunk of the back-to-school list is not even making it to the store.”
Field Agent’s qualitative research helps explain the appeal. Respondents cited convenience and time savings as the strongest reasons for purchasing school supplies online, particularly for parents who would otherwise need to bring several children shopping. They also pointed to easier price comparisons, better promotions, broader selection and the ability to avoid travelling between stores in search of merchandise that may be unavailable.
Some respondents said online shopping can also help them remain disciplined by reducing impulse purchases when children accompany them into stores. Digital channels are therefore competing not only on convenience, but also on shoppers’ ability to control the overall cost of the back-to-school trip.
Temu’s presence adds another dimension. Doucette said children themselves may sometimes help direct parents toward the platform, illustrating how digitally native marketplaces are becoming part of a shopping occasion that was once dominated almost entirely by established mass merchants and specialty retailers.
Back-to-School Is Also a Grocery Occasion
The season extends well beyond notebooks, backpacks and clothing. Field Agent found that 92% of surveyed households expect their children to take packed lunches or snacks from home during the school year, a result Doucette identified as one of the findings that stood out most strongly to him.
“In my years of doing this report and comparing to U.S. data, we are much more likely than Americans to pack a lunch, while students in the U.S. are much more likely to go to the cafeteria or go to a restaurant at lunch,” he said.
Among households packing lunches, 86% expect to include fresh fruit, while 78% cited granola or protein bars, 76% water and 75% meat sandwiches or wraps. Cracker, cheese and meat kits were selected by 71%.
The retailer rankings again favour large-scale and value-oriented operators. Walmart leads at 60%, followed by Costco at 56%, Real Canadian Superstore at 49%, No Frills/Maxi at 42% and FreshCo at 30%.
Those findings make back-to-school a recurring grocery occasion rather than simply a one-time seasonal shopping trip. Families may be trying to manage not only the cost of pencils, backpacks and shoes, but also the food children take to school throughout the academic year, creating an extended opportunity for grocery retailers that can demonstrate value.
Apparel Reflects the Same Search for Value
Clothing and footwear represent another significant component of the season, with 83% of respondents saying they are very likely to make purchases in the category. Again, many of the leading destinations are retailers associated with broad assortment or accessible pricing.
Walmart ranks first at 57%, followed by Costco at 46%, Winners at 44%, Old Navy at 41% and Sport Chek at 33%. Amazon reaches 28%, while H&M is at 24%, Joe Fresh at 22%, Gap at 21% and The Children’s Place at 20%. Thrift stores were selected by 19% of respondents.
The apparel results reinforce the pattern visible throughout the survey. Canadian households are not abandoning the category, but they are shopping it through a wide range of value, mass-market and off-price channels, creating additional pressure on retailers competing primarily through brand positioning rather than price.
Retailers Compete for Necessary Spending
Field Agent’s research points to a 2026 back-to-school season in which demand remains substantial even as household financial comfort remains limited. Families still need school supplies, clothing, footwear and food, but the battle for those purchases is increasingly being decided by price, convenience and the shopper’s confidence that a retailer represents good value.
For mass merchants, discount banners, warehouse clubs and online marketplaces, that environment creates an advantage. Their propositions align closely with households looking to complete shopping lists without allowing total spending to move too far beyond already stretched budgets.
For retailers without an obvious value proposition, the challenge is considerably greater. The distinction at the heart of the 2026 season is therefore between spending growth and consumer strength: Canadian families may be putting more money toward back-to-school, but Field Agent’s research suggests much of that increase reflects the cost of obtaining necessary goods rather than a broad increase in purchasing power.
As consumers become more comfortable substituting brands, moving between retailers and shifting purchases online, simply appearing on a family’s shopping list will not guarantee the sale. Retailers will increasingly have to earn their place at the checkout.
