Canadian retail sales experienced decreases in most categories in September, with All Stores experiencing a decline of -2.2% YOY and discretionary spending (All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies) down -1.3% YOY, This may be the result of a pause as we approach the holidays, with consumers waiting for bigger discounts on Black Friday, Prime Day, etc..
The regional retail landscape in Canada continues to evolve, with significant variations across provinces and territories. Toronto’s retail market is experiencing a downward trend, with sales now down -1.2% YTD. This decline in Canada’s largest city is likely a reflection of the high cost of living and housing pressures, which are constraining consumer spending. Similarly, British Columbia is facing challenges, with retail sales down -0.6% YTD.
In contrast, the Prairies, Maritimes, and Territories are showing more resilience, with growth rates closer to inflation levels. This regional disparity can be attributed to several factors:
- Population growth: These regions have experienced significant net population growth, which is driving increased retail spending.
- Smaller population base: The impact of migration is more pronounced in these areas, as even small population increases can result in substantial spending growth.
- Lower cost of living: Compared to major urban centers, these regions may offer more affordable living conditions, allowing for greater discretionary spending.
The grocery sector is facing headwinds, with all grocery categories experiencing declines. Total Food and Beverage Stores were down -2.9% YOY in September, a concerning figure considering food inflation rates. This trend suggests that consumers are actively seeking ways to reduce their food expenditures.
Convenience stores have been particularly hard hit, with sales plummeting -8.3% YOY. This significant decline is surprising, especially considering that September marked the first month of alcohol sales in Ontario convenience stores. The underwhelming performance suggests that:
- The introduction of alcohol sales may not be the “money printing machine” that many anticipated.
- Consumers might be prioritizing larger, less frequent shopping trips to save money, rather than making convenience purchases.
- The shift towards healthier lifestyles and reduced alcohol consumption could be impacting impulse buys typically associated with convenience stores.
The housing market’s influence on retail sales remains pronounced, with several key categories showing notable declines:
- Furniture Stores: Down -7.8% YOY, and
- Building Material and Garden Equipment: Down -3.3% YOY.
Interestingly, Home Furnishings Stores bucked the trend, showing growth of 4.9% YOY. This could indicate a shift towards smaller, more affordable home updates rather than major renovations or furniture purchases.
As we move into the final months of 2024, JCWG is closely monitoring several key factors that could shape the retail landscape:
- How will the recently announced GST holiday affect Canadian retail sales, particularly in the lead-up to the holiday shopping season?
- Will major events, such as the Taylor Swift concerts in Toronto and Vancouver, provide a significant bump to local retail sales?
- How will ongoing challenges, such as the Canada Post strike and port shutdowns, impact retail inventory and sales?
- With the Canadian dollar weakening after the U.S. election, how will this affect import costs and cross-border shopping trends?
- How are YOU preparing to start 2025 with strong sales?
Canadian Retail Sales by Product Category, Same Month Comparison
| Sales for the Month of September | Sep-24 | Sep-23 | YOY |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Stores | 65,727,725 | 67,179,240 | -2.16% |
| Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers | 18,302,355 | 18,286,549 | 0.09% |
| Gasoline Stations | 6,180,563 | 7,013,343 | -11.87% |
| All Stores Less Automotive | 41,244,807 | 41,879,348 | -1.52% |
| Food and Beverage Stores | 12,543,748 | 12,914,129 | -2.87% |
| Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores* | 8,877,193 | 9,044,947 | -1.85% |
| Convenience Stores | 728,582 | 794,495 | -8.30% |
| Specialty Food Stores | 888,849 | 899,492 | -1.18% |
| Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores | 2,049,125 | 2,175,195 | -5.80% |
| Health and Personal Care Stores | 5,358,694 | 5,316,514 | 0.79% |
| All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies | 23,342,365 | 23,648,705 | -1.30% |
| General Merchandise Stores | 8,643,359 | 8,495,314 | 1.74% |
| Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronic and Appliance Stores | 3,526,680 | 3,714,001 | -5.04% |
| Furniture Stores | 1,198,469 | 1,300,458 | -7.84% |
| Home Furnishings Stores | 722,152 | 688,373 | 4.91% |
| Electronics and Appliance Stores | 1,606,059 | 1,725,170 | -6.90% |
| Clothing and Accessories Stores | 3,422,497 | 3,453,087 | -0.89% |
| Clothing Stores | 2,667,384 | 2,702,293 | -1.29% |
| Shoe Stores | 392,197 | 411,459 | -4.68% |
| Jewellery, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores | 362,916 | 339,335 | 6.95% |
| Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores | 3,712,797 | 3,810,763 | -2.57% |
| Building Material and Garden Equipment | 4,037,031 | 4,175,542 | -3.32% |
| Miscellaneous Store Retailers | 2,425,655 | 2,477,660 | -2.10% |
| Cannabis Retailers | 443,935 | 449,683 | -1.28% |
Canadian E-commerce Sales
| Ecommerce Sales | Sep-24 | Sep-23 | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year-to-Date | 33,590,594 | 31,657,477 | 6.11% |
| Year-Over-Year | 4,114,141 | 3,762,770 | 9.34% |
Canadian Retail Sales by Store Category, Year to Date Comparison
| Year-to-Date, Ending September | Sep-24 | Sep-23 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Stores | 589,782,807 | 586,341,188 | 0.59% |
| Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers | 163,170,097 | 161,646,239 | 0.94% |
| Gasoline Stations | 58,161,981 | 59,454,597 | -2.17% |
| All Stores Less Automotive | 368,450,729 | 365,240,352 | 0.88% |
| Food and Beverage Stores | 114,193,611 | 113,470,746 | 0.64% |
| Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores* | 81,218,078 | 79,916,794 | 1.63% |
| Convenience Stores | 6,509,122 | 6,775,235 | -3.93% |
| Specialty Food Stores | 7,851,209 | 7,549,222 | 4.00% |
| Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores | 18,615,204 | 19,229,492 | -3.19% |
| Health and Personal Care Stores | 49,187,359 | 46,985,774 | 4.69% |
| All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies | 205,069,759 | 204,783,832 | 0.14% |
| General Merchandise Stores | 78,209,978 | 75,006,993 | 4.27% |
| Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronic and Appliance Stores | 30,656,099 | 31,244,795 | -1.88% |
| Furniture Stores | 10,218,256 | 10,584,819 | -3.46% |
| Home Furnishings Stores | 6,029,681 | 6,205,851 | -2.84% |
| Electronics and Appliance Stores | 14,408,163 | 14,454,122 | -0.32% |
| Clothing and Accessories Stores | 28,902,794 | 29,025,788 | -0.42% |
| Clothing Stores | 22,355,064 | 22,376,071 | -0.09% |
| Shoe Stores | 3,420,324 | 3,496,682 | -2.18% |
| Jewellery, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores | 3,127,406 | 3,153,034 | -0.81% |
| Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores | 32,428,668 | 33,777,095 | -3.99% |
| Building Material and Garden Equipment | 34,872,217 | 35,729,165 | -2.40% |
| Miscellaneous Store Retailers | 21,141,175 | 22,105,781 | -4.36% |
| Cannabis Retailers | 3,796,044 | 3,835,715 | -1.03% |
Retail Trade, Canada, All Stores, by Geographic Regions
| Region | Year-to-Date 2024 | Year-to-Date 2023 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| British Columbia | 79,388,838 | 79,888,340 | -0.63% |
| Vancouver | 39,607,961 | 39,289,196 | 0.81% |
| Alberta | 76,284,170 | 76,036,280 | 0.33% |
| Prairies* | 39,274,948 | 38,619,328 | 1.70% |
| Ontario | 219,233,785 | 218,964,254 | 0.12% |
| Toronto | 98,225,191 | 99,427,784 | -1.21% |
| Québec | 132,698,758 | 131,252,630 | 1.10% |
| Montréal | 65,902,241 | 65,360,082 | 0.83% |
| Atlantic Canada | 40,780,716 | 39,568,980 | 3.06% |
| Territories | 2,121,593 | 2,011,375 | 5.48% |
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