The Canadian retail landscape has kicked off 2025 with a remarkably strong performance, showcasing resilience and adaptability in the face of ongoing economic uncertainties. StatCan All Stores sales have surged by 6.4% YOY, with a robust 5.6% YOY for discretionary spending with All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies. This impressive start can be attributed to a perfect storm of factors, including government stimulus cheques in Ontario, the tax holiday nationally, and consumer behaviour driven by fear of American tariffs.
The Ontario government’s $200 cheque distribution at the end of January, coupled with an extended tax holiday until mid-February, has undoubtedly played a significant role in boosting consumer spending. Moreover, the looming threat of tariffs may have inadvertently spurred a wave of buying, as consumers rushed to stock up on U.S. products amidst market uncertainty. This confluence of events has created a unique economic environment that retailers have capitalized on, resulting in the strong sales figures we’re observing.
Furniture Sector Noteworthy, Ontario Sees Baby Boost
The furniture sector’s performance is particularly noteworthy, with Furniture Stores and Home Furnishings Stores reporting increases of 4.9% and 10.8% YOY, respectively. This uptick is especially significant given the sector’s recent struggles and may signal a resurgence in the housing market. The anticipated interest rate cut (announced on January 29) appears to have rekindled consumer interest in home-related purchases, suggesting that Canadians are preparing for a potentially active spring housing market. This trend could have far-reaching implications for the broader economy, potentially stimulating growth in related industries such as construction and home improvement.
The apparel sector has emerged as a major beneficiary of the Ontario government’s stimulus measures and tax holiday on children’s clothing. With a staggering 14.4% YOY increase, Clothing Stores have experienced a significant boost in sales. This surge suggests that consumers, armed with extra disposable income, prioritized wardrobe updates and post-holiday return to school. The timing of these initiatives has proven particularly effective in driving foot traffic and sales in a sector that often faces challenges during the post-holiday lull.
The food retail sector has demonstrated resilience, with most categories experiencing strong growth. Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores saw a 4.5% YOY increase, while Specialty Food Stores surged by 11.4% YOY. This growth is particularly impressive given that this is the sector’s first year-over-year decrease in the Consumer Price Index since 2017. The tax holiday appears to have not only boosted other categories but also benefited restaurants, with transaction sizes growing by 5.4% YOY in the first six weeks of the holiday.
Looking Forward
As we navigate through the uncertain terrain of 2025, JCWG is closely monitoring several key factors that could significantly impact the retail landscape:
- When will the trade war officially commence, and will tariffs become a permanent fixture?
- What are the anticipated dynamics of the spring housing market?
- In what ways can national tourism bolster Canadian retailers amidst global travel uncertainties?
- Will the current climate prompt more individuals to opt for staycations?
- What will be the impact of the 74 Hudson’s Bay store vacancies, and how will the liquidation process affect other retailers?
- How are YOU utilizing the “Buy Canadian” movement currently taking place in Canada?
Retail Sales by Product Category, Same Month Comparison
| Sales for the Month of January | Jan-25 | Jan-24 | YOY |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Stores | 59,827,049 | 56,228,440 | 6.40% |
| Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers | 15,777,345 | 14,425,929 | 9.37% |
| Gasoline Stations | 6,138,967 | 5,908,521 | 3.90% |
| All Stores Less Automotive | 37,910,737 | 35,893,990 | 5.62% |
| Food and Beverage Stores | 12,119,603 | 11,577,764 | 4.68% |
| Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores* | 9,013,175 | 8,624,974 | 4.50% |
| Convenience Stores | 612,553 | 634,880 | -3.52% |
| Specialty Food Stores | 781,803 | 702,062 | 11.36% |
| Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores | 1,712,073 | 1,615,848 | 5.96% |
| Health and Personal Care Stores | 5,760,614 | 5,355,089 | 7.57% |
| All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies | 20,030,520 | 18,961,137 | 5.64% |
| General Merchandise Stores | 7,747,083 | 7,276,193 | 6.47% |
| Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronic and Appliance Stores | 3,392,474 | 3,267,064 | 3.84% |
| Furniture Stores | 1,093,853 | 1,043,254 | 4.85% |
| Home Furnishings Stores | 641,050 | 578,425 | 10.83% |
| Electronics and Appliance Stores | 1,657,572 | 1,645,386 | 0.74% |
| Clothing and Accessories Stores | 2,731,144 | 2,422,189 | 12.76% |
| Clothing Stores | 2,162,290 | 1,889,780 | 14.42% |
| Shoe Stores | 268,639 | 270,879 | -0.83% |
| Jewellery, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores | 300,215 | 261,529 | 14.79% |
| Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores | 3,300,353 | 3,192,606 | 3.37% |
| Building Material and Garden Equipment | 2,859,466 | 2,803,084 | 2.01% |
| Miscellaneous Store Retailers | 2,209,772 | 2,070,404 | 6.73% |
| Cannabis Retailers | 418,325 | 401,961 | 4.07% |
Retail Sales by Store Category, Year to Date Comparison
| Year-to-Date Sales Ending January | Jan-25 | Jan-24 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Stores | 59,827,049 | 56,228,440 | 6.40% |
| Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers | 15,777,345 | 14,425,929 | 9.37% |
| Gasoline Stations | 6,138,967 | 5,908,521 | 3.90% |
| All Stores Less Automotive | 37,910,737 | 35,893,990 | 5.62% |
| Food and Beverage Stores | 12,119,603 | 11,577,764 | 4.68% |
| Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores* | 9,013,175 | 8,624,974 | 4.50% |
| Convenience Stores | 612,553 | 634,880 | -3.52% |
| Specialty Food Stores | 781,803 | 702,062 | 11.36% |
| Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores | 1,712,073 | 1,615,848 | 5.96% |
| Health and Personal Care Stores | 5,760,614 | 5,355,089 | 7.57% |
| All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies | 20,030,520 | 18,961,137 | 5.64% |
| General Merchandise Stores | 7,747,083 | 7,276,193 | 6.47% |
| Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronic and Appliance Stores | 3,392,474 | 3,267,064 | 3.84% |
| Furniture Stores | 1,093,853 | 1,043,254 | 4.85% |
| Home Furnishings Stores | 641,050 | 578,425 | 10.83% |
| Electronics and Appliance Stores | 1,657,572 | 1,645,386 | 0.74% |
| Clothing and Accessories Stores | 2,731,144 | 2,422,189 | 12.76% |
| Clothing Stores | 2,162,290 | 1,889,780 | 14.42% |
| Shoe Stores | 268,639 | 270,879 | -0.83% |
| Jewellery, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores | 300,215 | 261,529 | 14.79% |
| Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores | 3,300,353 | 3,192,606 | 3.37% |
| Building Material and Garden Equipment | 2,859,466 | 2,803,084 | 2.01% |
| Miscellaneous Store Retailers | 2,209,772 | 2,070,404 | 6.73% |
| Cannabis Retailers | 418,325 | 401,961 | 4.07% |
Ecommerce Sales
| Jan-25 | Jan-24 | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ecommerce Sales, YTD | 3,655,430 | 3,655,430 | 10.55% |
| Ecommerce Sales, YOY | 3,655,430 | 3,655,430 | 10.55% |
Regional Sales, Year to Date Comparison
| Region | Year-to-Date, 2025 | Year-to-Date, 2024 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| British Columbia | 8,454,123 | 7,668,634 | 10.24% |
| Vancouver | 4,326,360 | 3,996,204 | 8.26% |
| Alberta | 7,936,104 | 7,294,641 | 8.79% |
| Prairies* | 3,994,983 | 3,680,914 | 8.53% |
| Ontario | 22,211,142 | 21,352,373 | 4.02% |
| Toronto | 10,084,975 | 9,769,997 | 3.22% |
| Québec | 12,818,799 | 12,134,204 | 5.64% |
| Montréal | 6,448,351 | 6,089,823 | 5.89% |
| Atlantic Canada | 4,186,211 | 3,890,604 | 7.60% |
| Territories | 225,686 | 207,071 | 8.99% |
NATIONAL RETAIL BULLETIN
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