The month of December is always a critical period for retail sales, as it encompasses the holiday shopping season. This year, Canadian retail sales showed a 3.7% YOY growth across all stores. For All Stores Less Automotive, Food, Pharmacies, the growth was 3.2% YOY. While these figures seem promising, a deeper dive into the data reveals some intriguing trends and raises questions about the underlying factors influencing these numbers.
Despite the introduction of the GST/HST break, which was expected to boost consumer spending, there was seemingly no impact on the food categories or alcohol sales, where we expected to see impact. In fact, some segments saw a decline:
- Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores: down -0.4% YOY
- Convenience Stores: down -4.7% YOY
- Specialty Food Stores: down -2.0% YOY
- Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores: down -7.9% YOY
These declines suggest that consumers may not have been significantly swayed by the tax break in these categories. Conversely, categories that could have benefited from the tax holiday through toys and children’s items showed impressive growth:
- Clothing and Accessories Stores: up 4.9% YOY
- Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores: up 6.1% YOY
A notable trend that continued even during the holiday season is the shift away from alcohol consumption towards other categories. This trend is reflected in the following data:
- Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores: down -7.9% YOY
- Cannabis Stores: up 11.4% YOY
- Health and Personal Care Stores: up 6.14% YOY
The significant growth in cannabis sales suggests a continually changing landscape in consumer preferences. Additionally, the increase in health and personal care store sales indicates a growing focus on wellness and self-care among consumers.
Despite the Canada Post strike from November 15, 2024, to December 17, 2024, ecommerce sales showed remarkable resilience with a 14.1% YOY growth. Several factors contributed to this:
- Cyber Monday falling in December this year boosted online sales.
- Shopify reported a 24% increase in ecommerce sales over the Black Friday to Cyber Monday weekend.
As we reflect on the December retail sales data, several critical questions arise for JCWG as we navigate the future:
- How will tariffs and counter-tariffs affect North American relations, particularly with the recently added steel and aluminum tariffs?
- Will Canadian retailers continue to remove American products from shelves even if tariffs are not implemented?
- Will American brands start to see large return merchandise authorizations (RMAs) coming back from Canadian retailers for fear that the products will no longer sell? How might this change the way vendor contracts are written going forward?
- How are YOU preparing for the anticipated changes in the cost of goods in Canada?
Retail Sales by Product Category, Same Month Comparison
| Sales for the Month of December | Dec-24 | Dec-23 | YOY |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Stores | 71,636,306 | 69,109,518 | 3.66% |
| Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers | 16,307,761 | 14,643,424 | 11.37% |
| Gasoline Stations | 5,982,187 | 6,058,244 | -1.26% |
| All Stores Less Automotive | 49,346,358 | 48,407,850 | 1.94% |
| Food and Beverage Stores | 14,337,702 | 14,668,881 | -2.26% |
| Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores* | 9,806,206 | 9,846,802 | -0.41% |
| Convenience Stores | 682,788 | 716,061 | -4.65% |
| Specialty Food Stores | 1,125,047 | 1,148,167 | -2.01% |
| Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores | 2,723,661 | 2,957,851 | -7.92% |
| Health and Personal Care Stores | 6,533,155 | 6,155,020 | 6.14% |
| All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies | 28,475,501 | 27,583,949 | 3.23% |
| General Merchandise Stores | 11,014,290 | 10,670,152 | 3.23% |
| Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronic and Appliance Stores | 4,384,900 | 4,418,075 | -0.75% |
| Furniture Stores | 1,232,298 | 1,245,030 | -1.02% |
| Home Furnishings Stores | 836,438 | 811,755 | 3.04% |
| Electronics and Appliance Stores | 2,316,164 | 2,361,291 | -1.91% |
| Clothing and Accessories Stores | 5,359,797 | 5,111,220 | 4.86% |
| Clothing Stores | 4,029,232 | 3,811,832 | 5.70% |
| Shoe Stores | 551,706 | 534,356 | 3.25% |
| Jewellery, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores | 778,859 | 765,032 | 1.81% |
| Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores | 4,756,541 | 4,482,398 | 6.12% |
| Building Material and Garden Equipment | 2,959,975 | 2,902,105 | 1.99% |
| Miscellaneous Store Retailers | 2,697,486 | 2,514,864 | 7.26% |
| Cannabis Retailers | 499,730 | 448,672 | 11.38% |
Retail Sales by Store Category, Year to Date Comparison
| Year-to-Date Sales Ending December | Dec-24 | Dec-23 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Stores | 802,638,797 | 792,369,058 | 1.30% |
| Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers | 219,061,700 | 213,063,266 | 2.82% |
| Gasoline Stations | 76,710,540 | 78,855,491 | -2.72% |
| All Stores Less Automotive | 506,866,557 | 500,450,301 | 1.28% |
| Food and Beverage Stores | 154,346,449 | 152,927,956 | 0.93% |
| Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores* | 109,440,316 | 107,264,195 | 2.03% |
| Convenience Stores | 8,573,013 | 8,889,235 | -3.56% |
| Specialty Food Stores | 10,743,941 | 10,425,528 | 3.05% |
| Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores | 25,589,181 | 26,348,994 | -2.88% |
| Health and Personal Care Stores | 67,665,839 | 64,749,193 | 4.50% |
| All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies | 284,854,269 | 282,773,152 | 0.74% |
| General Merchandise Stores | 108,263,439 | 104,304,070 | 3.80% |
| Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronic and Appliance Stores | 43,269,276 | 43,819,600 | -1.26% |
| Furniture Stores | 13,973,223 | 14,335,015 | -2.52% |
| Home Furnishings Stores | 8,433,251 | 8,591,731 | -1.84% |
| Electronics and Appliance Stores | 20,862,804 | 20,892,853 | -0.14% |
| Clothing and Accessories Stores | 42,497,130 | 42,074,399 | 1.00% |
| Clothing Stores | 32,824,847 | 32,385,999 | 1.36% |
| Shoe Stores | 4,881,888 | 4,953,458 | -1.44% |
| Jewellery, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores | 4,790,396 | 4,734,940 | 1.17% |
| Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores | 45,099,247 | 45,990,823 | -1.94% |
| Building Material and Garden Equipment | 45,725,177 | 46,584,265 | -1.84% |
| Miscellaneous Store Retailers | 28,991,305 | 29,474,381 | -1.64% |
| Cannabis Retailers | 5,204,896 | 5,162,530 | 0.82% |
Ecommerce Sales
| Dec-24 | Dec-23 | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ecommerce Sales, YTD | 48,339,615 | 45,076,403 | 7.24% |
| Ecommerce Sales, YOY | 5,345,770 | 4,684,495 | 14.12% |
Regional Sales, Year to Date Comparison
| Region | Year-to-Date, 2024 | Year-to-Date, 2023 | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| British Columbia | 107,938,589 | 107,766,032 | 0.16% |
| Vancouver | 54,052,541 | 53,461,065 | 1.11% |
| Alberta | 103,597,693 | 101,979,095 | 1.59% |
| Prairies* | 53,170,740 | 52,007,696 | 2.24% |
| Ontario | 299,601,223 | 297,337,013 | 0.76% |
| Toronto | 135,093,200 | 135,103,909 | -0.01% |
| Québec | 180,282,077 | 177,080,345 | 1.81% |
| Montréal | 89,980,312 | 88,836,827 | 1.29% |
| Atlantic Canada | 55,213,869 | 53,492,315 | 3.22% |
| Territories | 2,834,606 | 2,706,562 | 4.73% |
NATIONAL RETAIL BULLETIN
Thank you J.C. Williams Group for this report.
