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Downtown Grocery Growth Accelerates in Canada

Future Food Basics at ROQ City in downtown Toronto. Image: Hariri Pontarini Architects

Access to affordable food in Canada’s urban cores has become one of the defining retail issues of the past year. As condo density rises and transit-oriented development accelerates, grocery chains and developers are rethinking how and where stores operate. The result is a surge in downtown grocery stores Canada residents are increasingly relying on for convenience, affordability and access.

At the same time, the expansion comes with complexity. In a recent interview with Retail Insider, Dr. Sylvain Charlebois said urban grocery development is far from straightforward. “Opening up stores downtown is incredibly difficult right now,” he said, citing shrink and theft as major concerns. “Shrink is a huge problem for sure.”

Sylvain Charlebois
Dr. Sylvain Charlebois

Even so, the pace of urban grocery investment between mid-2025 and early 2026 has been notable across cities such as Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and others.

The Rise of the Urban Discount Format

One of the most significant shifts is the adaptation of hard discount banners to smaller downtown footprints. Traditionally associated with suburban plazas, chains such as Food Basics and No Frills are now embedding into condo podiums and transit corridors.

In August 2025, Food Basics opened its first “urban concept” store at 340 Queen Street in Ottawa’s Centretown, at the base of the Claridge Moon condominium near the Lyon LRT station. The 22,000 square foot store fits approximately 85 percent of a traditional assortment into roughly 65 percent of the space. Fast self-checkouts and expanded grab-and-go meals are tailored to professionals and seniors living nearby.

In Toronto, Food Basics confirmed it will anchor the upcoming ROQ City development at 261 Queen Street East in Moss Park. The 33,000 square foot store is designed to serve a rapidly densifying and historically underserved downtown neighbourhood.

Loblaw has also been active. A new urban No Frills opened in late November 2025 in Burlington’s Aldershot corridor, responding to community demand for affordable options within a dense transit-connected area. In Calgary’s downtown West End, a 13,000 square foot No Frills opened at the base of West Village Towers, targeting both upscale renters and budget-conscious residents. The location, positioned within the free-fare C-Train zone and offering heated underground parking, has effectively addressed what was long considered a grocery desert north of the rail tracks.

The growth of downtown discount banners reflects broader consumer trends. “It’s totally normal for grocers to adapt to a more frugal market,” Dr. Charlebois said in the interview, pointing to the expansion of discount formats across the country. As shoppers trade down, chains are ensuring those lower-price options are available in core neighbourhoods, not just in car-dependent suburbs.

Food Basics at 340 Queen St. in downtown Ottawa. Photo: Food Basics

Premium and Specialty Concepts Move In

While discount chains expand, urban cores are also attracting premium and niche grocery concepts.

In Toronto, Whole Foods confirmed that it will anchor the King Toronto development on King Street West with a 30,000 square foot store. The opening fills a significant gap in the affluent King West neighbourhood. Interestingly, the expansion coincided with the closure of two other Toronto locations, suggesting a strategic pivot toward denser, higher-performing urban markets.

Montreal-based KaleMart24 announced in January 2026 that it will open a downtown Toronto flagship at 601 to 603 Yonge Street in June 2026, along with a transit-connected location at Montreal’s Eaton Centre. Often described as a health-focused convenience format, the brand operates micro-footprints between 850 and 1,800 square feet, offering curated, better-for-you assortments.

In Vancouver, Aburi Market opened March 3 at 609 Granville Street, taking over the former Meinhardt Pacific Centre space. The 3,200 square foot premium Japanese concept focuses on grab-and-go offerings, A5 Wagyu, sushi bentos and an in-house bakery targeting downtown office workers and residents.

Independent operators are also entering the urban mix. BestCo Fresh Foods recently opened a flagship location at the base of the Peter and Adelaide condo development in Toronto’s Entertainment District, providing culturally diverse offerings in a high-density area. The same retailer is set to open at Mirvish Village at the corner of Bloor and Bathhurst Streets. 

Dr. Charlebois noted that ethnic and specialty stores are operating differently from large chains and often provide strong value. “A lot of them actually offer some really good deals too,” he said. These formats add diversity to the downtown grocery ecosystem.

BestCo grocery store on Peter St. in downtown Toronto. Photo: Zolo

Transit-Oriented Grocery Anchors

In Vancouver and Calgary, the most prominent grocery developments are directly integrated into transit-oriented mixed-use projects.

In Vancouver’s South Granville area, Loblaws City Market is scheduled to open in mid-2026 at 1477 West Broadway. The 22,000 square foot store will span two levels at the base of PCI Developments’ 39-storey tower known as The Stories. It sits directly above the new South Granville SkyTrain station, reinforcing the trend of grocery stores as transit-linked anchors.

Nearby, a Sobeys-affiliated banner is transforming the former Toys “R” Us heritage building at 1154 to 1174 West Broadway into an approximately 11,500 square foot urban grocery store. The project preserves the iconic BowMac sign while repurposing the interior for food retail.

In Calgary, the recently opened Calgary Co-op North Hill urban flagship at 520 16 Avenue NE exemplifies vertical integration. Opened February 26, 2026, the 41,000 square foot food centre sits beneath 189 residential rental units. The store includes a pharmacy walk-in clinic, oyster bar and underground parking. The adjacent 1960s-era store will be demolished to make way for additional retail phases in 2027.

Across both cities, the pattern is clear. Grocery stores are no longer standalone buildings with expansive surface parking. Instead, they occupy podium levels of residential towers, with air rights above and transit nodes below.

Soon-to-open Loblaw CityMarket at Broadway and Granville in Vancouver. Image: Loblaw

Addressing Grocery Deserts

Beyond premium developments, several projects explicitly aim to restore grocery access to underserved neighbourhoods.

In Barrie, Kennedy’s Lakeside Grocery opened in late 2024, bringing a 3,500 square foot family-owned store back to downtown after more than a decade without a proper grocery option. The store emphasizes locally sourced goods and features an on-site butcher.

In Calgary’s West Village and Toronto’s Moss Park, discount and mid-market operators are positioning stores in areas long described as food deserts. These moves align with a broader policy conversation about affordability and access.

An emerging political storyline involves calls for publicly operated grocery stores in urban centres. Some advocates argue that non-profit competitors could reduce urban grocery prices significantly. Whether such proposals materialize remains uncertain, but they underscore how central downtown grocery access has become to the cost-of-living debate.

The Challenges Beneath the Growth

Despite the expansion, risks remain. Dr. Charlebois warned that urban grocery economics are complicated by crime and shrink. “Opening up stores downtown is incredibly difficult right now,” he said. Security investments and loss prevention measures can materially affect margins.

He also noted that Canada’s overall grocery store density per capita has declined since 2020. “As soon as you have fewer stores based on population, you can argue that there is less competition out there or less access,” he said. Even as downtown grocery stores Canada residents rely on are multiplying, other neighbourhoods may be seeing rationalization or closures.

More from Retail Insider:

Daily Synopsis: Mar 19, 2026

Today’s Retail Insider articles listed below capture key shifts including Canada’s leading grocers expanding discount banners to navigate food inflation, Walmart Canada’s plus-size apparel push with Lane Bryant reshaping competition, and TJX Canada’s downtown store cluster strategy in Montreal and beyond. Small business confidence softens under rising energy costs, adding another layer of challenge. Together, these stories highlight how Canadian retailers balance operational pressures with strategic adaptation in a complex market environment.

 

🗞️ The Day’s Retail Insider Article List

 

🌐 Canadian Retail News From Around the Web

Grocers Double Down on Discount Banners in Canada

No Frills store. Photo: Loblaw

Canada’s largest grocery companies are reshaping their footprints around low-cost formats as food inflation and consumer caution persist. Loblaw, Metro, and Empire are investing billions of dollars into hard discount banners, converting conventional stores, and refining supply chains to protect price points. The acceleration in Canada discount grocery expansion reflects both opportunity and pressure in a market where total store density is quietly declining.

In a recent interview with Retail Insider, Dr. Sylvain Charlebois said expansion headlines do not tell the full story. “I actually went into numbers and tried to figure out what is the per capita ratio in Canada versus the US,” he said. Since 2020, the number of grocery stores per 100,000 Canadians has fallen from over 22 to roughly 18 or 19. “As soon as you have fewer stores based on population, you can argue that there is less competition out there or less access,” he added.

Sylvain Charlebois
Dr. Sylvain Charlebois

Against that backdrop of consolidation and selective closures, discount banners have become the primary growth engine.

Loblaw Scales No Frills and Maxi

Loblaw remains the most aggressive player in the value segment. In late February, the company announced a $2.4 billion investment for the year, including 70 new stores. Of those, 31 will be No Frills or Maxi locations. The broader plan sits within Loblaw’s $10 billion, five-year capital program.

The expansion is nationwide, with a heavy concentration in Ontario and Western Canada. At the same time, Loblaw continues to convert underperforming full-service stores into No Frills to capture price-sensitive urban customers. “It’s totally normal for grocers to adapt to a more frugal market,” Dr. Charlebois said, noting the shift toward discount formats.

Automation supports the strategy. Large-scale investments in distribution, including high-capacity facilities designed to lower supply chain costs, are intended to keep discount shelf prices competitive. Private labels such as President’s Choice and No Name are also central to the model, as shoppers increasingly trade down from national brands.

Maxi store. Photo: Loblaw Companies

Metro Leans on Food Basics and Super C

Metro has identified discount banners as its main source of market share gains. In January 2026, the company confirmed plans to open 12 new discount stores in fiscal 2026. Three have already opened. Metro ended 2025 with 267 discount locations, including 150 Food Basics stores in Ontario and 117 Super C stores in Quebec.

The performance gap between discount and conventional formats has widened. Value-conscious shoppers are looking for lower prices without sacrificing convenience. Metro recently extended grocery delivery to its discount banners, helping drive a 25.8 percent increase in e-commerce sales.

The emphasis on discount reflects a broader change in behaviour. “They’re going to be promoting their private labels a little bit more,” Dr. Charlebois said. He also pointed to the emergence of liquidation centres that sell near-expiry or rejected products at steep discounts. “We are seeing very aggressive discounting out there, much more so than before,” he noted.

Empire Advances FreshCo in the West

Empire, parent of Sobeys and Safeway, is nearing completion of its “Project Horizon” plan to convert roughly 25 percent of its Western Canadian full-service stores to the FreshCo banner. The company has now confirmed 37 of its planned 65 FreshCo locations in Western Canada, with significant activity in Alberta.

Recent Safeway-to-FreshCo conversions in Calgary and Edmonton illustrate Empire’s focus on improving price perception in competitive markets. In January 2026, Empire also announced it would close Alberta e-commerce facilities and pivot toward third-party partnerships while prioritizing physical discount store profitability.

The strategy aligns with a broader pattern. While total store density per capita is edging lower, the share of discount stores within that footprint is rising sharply.

FreshCo (Image: JACKMAN REINVENTS)

Urban Discounting and Market Share Shifts

One of the more notable developments is the move of discount banners into higher-rent urban cores. In Toronto, for example, No Frills locations are appearing in neighbourhoods where discount grocers historically had limited presence. The aim is to capture younger, price-sensitive consumers who live in dense areas.

Dr. Charlebois cautions that urban expansion carries risk. “Opening up stores downtown is incredibly difficult right now,” he said, citing shrink and theft as major concerns. “Shrink is a huge problem for sure.” Retailers are balancing the need for access with heightened security costs.

In Quebec, the hard discount model has delivered measurable gains. According to 2025 to 2026 data from dunnhumby, Maxi has overtaken Costco as the top grocery retailer in the province, underscoring how effective the format has become in today’s economic climate.

Retraction Beneath the Headlines

Despite high-profile investments, net expansion remains nuanced. Dr. Charlebois emphasized that closures often accompany openings. “They never talk about stores that they’re closing,” he said, referring to annual expansion announcements.

As demographics shift and profitability varies by neighbourhood, retailers are rationalizing portfolios. Some markets may lose options even as others gain new discount formats. “You can argue that there is less competition out there or less access,” he reiterated.

The result is a reshaped landscape rather than pure growth. Conventional banners are being trimmed or converted, while discount stores proliferate.

The current wave of Canada discount grocery expansion reflects a structural pivot rather than a temporary tactic. Consumers are trading down. Private label penetration is at record highs. Supply chains are being optimized for efficiency. E-commerce is being integrated into value banners to remove the stigma of trading down.

At the same time, consolidation and selective closures are redefining access. The grocery market is not simply adding stores. It is reallocating capital toward formats that resonate in a cautious economy.

More from Retail Insider:

Canada’s EV transition turns pragmatic as consumers weigh cost, charging experience and confidence: EY

Andersen EV photo
Andersen EV photo

EY Canada’s annual Mobility Consumer Index, which gauges consumer attitudes towards vehicle purchasing and technology preferences, reveals that Canadians are adopting a more practical approach for their next car purchase. Although nearly half of respondents indicate plans to buy a vehicle within the next two years, there is a noticeable shift in preference back towards internal combustion engine vehicles (ICE).

“Canada’s EV story hasn’t stalled, rather it’s becoming more pragmatic. Consumers still care about fuel costs and the environment, but they’re asking harder questions about affordability, charging reliability and the day-to-day experience. The opportunity now is to close the confidence gap with clearer pricing, more dependable charging and a purchase journey that meets Canadians where they are,” said Jennifer Rogers, Automotive and Transportation Leader at EY Canada.

Jennifer Rogers
Jennifer Rogers

This year’s survey data shows that 30% of potential EV buyers in Canada report reconsidering or postponing EV purchase decisions in light of recent geopolitical events, said the EY report.

Preference towards ICE vehicles rose to 58% (up from 44%), while battery electric vehicle (BEV) preference declined to 7% (from 15%). Hybrids remain the most preferred alternative powertrain at 17%, reinforcing their role as a bridge for consumers who want efficiency gains without fully changing refuelling behaviours, it explained.

“For Canadians leaning toward ICE vehicles, the primary inhibitors to EV consideration are upfront purchase cost (32%) and public charger quality / interoperability (28%). Consumers also cite difficulty locating charging stations (38%), expensive charging costs (32%) and long wait times (31%) among the top public charging concerns. For home charging, high installation costs, electricity bills, and electrical panel upgrades emerged as added considerations,” said EY.

“The top two EV motivators remain the same as the previous year with 53% of respondents citing high fuel / gasoline prices as the top consideration, an increase from 45% the year before.  Environmental concerns hold onto the second spot but rose from 34% in 2024 to 47% in 2025, suggesting sustainability remains a key purchase incentive.”

Andersen EV photo
Andersen EV photo

The report indicates a retail journey that is increasingly hybrid. Canadians continue to rely heavily on online platforms for early-stage research, while the dealership experience remains important for decision-making — 37% of EV purchasers and 41% of ICE vehicle buyers say they wouldn’t buy without a test drive. At the same time, online purchase preference grows to 27% (up from 22%), and 32% say they want to evaluate both online and offline options, said EY.

“On connected and autonomous experiences, Canadian consumers show stronger appetite for functional, day-to-day benefits (navigation, safety / security, and service / maintenance) than for higher levels of automation. On a scale where 0 is no automation and 5 is full automation, a majority (68%) are comfortable with up to Level 2 (partial autonomy), while concerns about accident risk (62%), loss of vehicle control (54%) and technology failure (52%) remain prominent,” it noted.

More from Retail Insider:



Red Apple celebrating grand opening of 3 store ‘enhancements’

Photo: Red Apple Stores

Red Apple Stores says store enhancements in Goose Bay, NL (388 Hamilton River Rd.), The Pas, MB (Otineka Mall, Highway 10 North), and Armstrong, BC (3305 Smith Drive), will have Grand Opening celebrations taking place at all three locations on Friday April 10.

The Goose Bay store will officially convert from The Bargain! Shop to Red Apple, while the locations in The Pas and Armstrong have completed store refresh renovations designed to improve the shopping experience. Customers in all three communities are invited to celebrate the updates with a Grand Opening event beginning with a ribbon-cutting ceremony at 9 a.m. on April 10, said the company.

“These updates are part of Red Apple’s ongoing commitment to modernize stores while continuing to deliver the great value customers expect. Shoppers will enjoy a more modern, open store layout, refreshed signage and displays to make deals easy to find, and CandyWorks, a colourful candy destination offering sweet treats for shoppers of all ages. Stores continue to feature brand-name fashion, toys, groceries, and home essentials at affordable prices,” said the company.

Grand Opening Highlights (April 10 at all three locations):

  • FREE $10 Red Apple shopping card and laundry basket for the first 100 customers
  • FREE Red Apple shopping bag while quantities last
  • Entry to win a $1,000 Red Apple shopping spree
  • Two-day flyer deals, April 10 & 11
  • A 25% off coupon for every customer, valid on a future purchase
Jim Hreljac
Jim Hreljac

“These projects highlight the collaboration and dedication of many teams across Red Apple,” said Jim Hreljac, President of Red Apple Stores. “Our operations, merchandising, marketing, and store teams all played an important role in bringing these updated stores to life, and we look forward to welcoming customers to experience the refreshed Red Apple brand.”

The brand has over 140 small-town general merchandise retail stores in Canada.

More from Retail Insider:

TJX Expands Downtown Footprint with New Urban Stores

Montreal Eaton Centre. Photo: Tripadvisor

TJX Canada is continuing to deepen its presence in major Canadian downtowns, with a new Marshalls store planned for Montreal Eaton Centre as part of the company’s broader urban growth strategy. The off-price retail giant, which operates the Winners, Marshalls, and HomeSense banners in Canada, has increasingly secured high-profile real estate in city centre shopping districts, positioning its stores in dense areas where foot traffic, transit access, and residential populations can support multiple locations.

The latest move will see Marshalls open in downtown Montreal, adding another TJX banner to the city’s central shopping corridor. The project reinforces a pattern already visible in Toronto and Vancouver, where the company has recently expanded or repositioned stores in some of the country’s most prominent urban retail environments.

According to information tied to the project, the Marshalls store will occupy approximately 32,500 square feet on the Metro level of Montreal Eaton Centre with access to the city’s subway system. The location has already appeared on the Marshalls website, indicating that the store is being integrated into the brand’s expanding urban footprint. The store is expected to open September 2026.

The addition places Marshalls inside one of Montreal’s busiest retail nodes. Montreal Eaton Centre sits along Sainte-Catherine Street, the city’s primary shopping corridor, and connects directly to the RÉSO underground pedestrian network. The complex benefits from significant daily traffic generated by office workers, university students, tourists, and commuters moving through the downtown core.

Click image for live Montreal Eaton Centre mall directory

New Marshalls Strengthens Downtown Montreal Presence

The Montreal Eaton Centre store will complement TJX’s existing network of locations across the downtown area. A Winners operates across the street at Place Montréal Trust, a shopping complex connected through the underground city and situated within the same retail district.

Elsewhere downtown, Winners operates a store at 150 Sainte-Catherine West within Complexe Desjardins, providing the brand with another foothold along the city’s main commercial corridor. Further west, the Alexis Nihon Complex houses both Winners and Marshalls, illustrating how TJX has already been comfortable operating the two banners in close proximity when market conditions support it.

In addition to these locations, a Winners store also serves the nearby Griffintown neighbourhood south of the downtown core.

Together, these stores illustrate how the company often develops clusters of locations within dense urban markets. Rather than relying on a single flagship store, TJX frequently builds a network of stores across a downtown district in order to capture different streams of foot traffic and shopping trips.

Notably, while TJX is strengthening its downtown Montreal presence with Winners and Marshalls, there is currently no HomeSense store in the city’s downtown core. The home décor banner operates at several locations across the Montreal region, though those stores remain outside the immediate downtown district.

Montreal Eaton Centre Metro entrance. Photo: Tripadvisor

Why Winners and Marshalls Often Operate Nearby

While it may appear unusual for two banners owned by the same company to operate close to one another, the arrangement aligns closely with TJX’s off-price retail model.

Both Winners and Marshalls sell discounted merchandise sourced from brand overstock, cancelled orders, and opportunistic buying opportunities. Because inventory changes frequently and selections vary from store to store, shoppers often visit multiple locations when searching for specific items.

This dynamic forms the basis of the “treasure hunt” experience that TJX promotes. If a shopper does not find what they are looking for at one location, the proximity of another store encourages them to continue browsing nearby rather than leaving the area entirely.

The two banners also maintain slightly different merchandising identities. Winners is widely recognized as the company’s legacy Canadian brand and often emphasizes fashion apparel across women’s, men’s, and children’s categories. Marshalls typically features a larger footwear department and often highlights contemporary fashion and youth-oriented brands.

These distinctions allow the two concepts to complement each other while appealing to overlapping segments of the urban consumer market.

Winners at 110 Bloor St. W. in Toronto. Photo: Salthill Capital

Prime Downtown Real Estate Increasingly Attractive

The Montreal Eaton Centre project also highlights how TJX has increasingly secured prominent downtown real estate across Canada.

In Toronto, Winners opened a major new store at CF Toronto Eaton Centre in late 2024, taking over a former Old Navy location inside one of the country’s busiest shopping centres. The store provides TJX with a highly visible flagship presence in the heart of downtown Toronto.

Toronto remains an important market for the company. Winners was founded in Toronto in 1982, and the retailer now operates numerous stores across the downtown core, reflecting the city’s dense population and strong pedestrian traffic.

Vancouver offers another clear example of TJX’s evolving urban strategy. In October 2024, Winners relocated from its long-time home at 798 Granville Street to a larger location at 660 Granville Street, taking over the former Steve Nash Fitness World space.

Rather than vacating the previous location entirely, TJX later opened a Marshalls store in the former Winners space at Robson and Granville in March 2025. The move allowed the company to strengthen its presence along one of Vancouver’s most recognizable retail corridors while maintaining control of both locations within the same neighbourhood.

Marshalls recently opened its first downtown Vancouver store at the northeast corner of Robson and Granville streets — in a retail space formerly occupied by Winners, which relocated a couple of blocks north. Photo, Apple Maps.

Why HomeSense Is Less Common in Downtown Cores

While Winners and Marshalls have become increasingly visible in downtown markets, the HomeSense banner has been slower to establish stores in dense city centres.

Part of the reason relates to the types of merchandise carried by the brand. HomeSense focuses heavily on home décor, furniture, and larger household goods that often require easier vehicle access and more generous loading facilities. Many downtown buildings, particularly older retail properties, can present logistical challenges for transporting large items.

Urban shopping behaviour also plays a role. Downtown shoppers frequently travel on foot or by public transit, making it easier to carry apparel or small household items than larger pieces of furniture or décor.

As a result, HomeSense stores are more commonly found in locations that provide convenient parking and easier vehicle access, including suburban power centres and regional shopping districts.

Toronto and Vancouver have seen a handful of downtown HomeSense locations, but in Montreal the concept has so far remained outside the central core.

HomeSense store on the second level of a commercial building at Robson and Richards streets in Vancouver. Photo: Wheree

Montreal Store Reflects Broader TJX Downtown Expansion

The new Marshalls at Montreal Eaton Centre represents another example of TJX downtown expansion, a strategy that continues to reshape the company’s presence in Canada’s largest urban markets.

By positioning Winners and Marshalls stores in dense city centres, TJX is creating clusters of locations that serve commuters, residents, office workers, and visitors alike. Each store contributes to a wider network that captures multiple shopping trips across the same downtown district.

The Montreal Eaton Centre location adds another key piece to this network while reinforcing the company’s growing commitment to prime urban retail space.

If the pattern seen in Toronto and Vancouver continues, the addition of Marshalls in Montreal may represent another step in TJX’s long-term effort to strengthen its presence in Canada’s busiest downtown shopping corridors.

More from Retail Insider:

Bank of Canada holds interest rates as Middle East conflict fuels oil-driven inflation risks and weak growth outlook

Andrea Piacquadio photo
Andrea Piacquadio photo

The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold rates reflects a delicate balancing act between rising inflation pressures driven by global conflict and a weakening domestic economy, says CPA Canada’s chief economist David-Alexandre Brassard.

“Inflation was trending in the right direction at the start of 2026 with core measures moving closer to the Bank’s two per cent target and demand showing signs of softness,” said Brassard.

“But the war in Iran has significantly altered that outlook, with oil prices jumping roughly 40 per cent and consumers already seeing increases of 15 to 20 per cent at the pump.”

The surge in oil prices is expected to ripple through the economy, increasing transportation costs and putting renewed upward pressure on the price of goods in the months ahead, effectively erasing the relief Canadians saw following the removal of the carbon tax in 2025, he said.

David-Alexandre Brassard
David-Alexandre Brassard

At the same time, Canada’s economic fundamentals remain fragile, he noted.

GDP contracted in the fourth quarter, more than 100,000 private sector jobs have been lost in 2026, and both the housing sector and international trade continue to underperform.

“With clear signs of economic weakness and the risk of a deeper slowdown growing, moving pre-emptively on interest rates would be a significant gamble,” said Brassard. “While persistent oil-driven inflation could eventually force the Bank to prioritize price stability, we’re not at that point yet.”

After expanding by 2.4% in the third quarter of last year, GDP in Canada contracted 0.6% in the fourth quarter, said the Bank in a statement, adding that domestic demand grew by more than 2% due to strength in consumer and government spending, even as housing markets remained weak.

“We continue to expect the Canadian economy to grow modestly as it adjusts to US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, but recent data suggest that near-term economic growth will be weaker than anticipated in January. The labour market remains soft. Employment gains in the fourth quarter of 2025 were largely reversed in the first two months of 2026, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% in February. Looking through the volatility, recent data also suggest ongoing weakness in exports. It’s too early to assess the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on growth in Canada,” it said.

“CPI inflation eased further to 1.8% in February, down from 2.3% in January. CPI inflation excluding changes in indirect taxes as well as core inflation measures have also come down and are all close to 2%. Food inflation slowed in February but remains elevated. The sharp increase in global energy prices has led to increases in gasoline prices, and this will push up total inflation in the coming months.

MART PRODUCTION photo
MART PRODUCTION photo

“With recent data pointing to weaker economic activity and uncertainty elevated, risks to growth look tilted to the downside. At the same time, inflation risks have gone up due to higher energy prices. We will continue to assess the impact of US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, and how the Canadian economy is adjusting. We are also monitoring the unfolding conflict in the Middle East closely and assessing its impact on growth and inflation. As the outlook evolves, we stand ready to respond as needed. The Bank is committed to ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.”

Andrew Hencic
Andrew Hencic

Andrew Hencic, Senior Economist, TD, said the BoC stayed on hold as expected and highlighted the uncertainty coming from the energy shock. 

“The emphasis on keeping inflation pressures from spilling over from energy to other categories was to be expected. What matters in the coming months will be how the assessment and identification of those spillovers are communicated,” he said.

“The war in the Middle East is the dominant factor here. How long it disrupts supplies of energy products and other goods is the determinant of how big the associated inflationary impact will be. The BoC is focused on the pass-through to core prices and any shifts to inflation expectations. Given a domestic economic backdrop that has featured still-elevated unemployment, softening core inflation and growth risks “tilted to the downside”, we expect the Bank of Canada to stay on the sidelines, for now. However, uncertainty is high and the supply shock could easily escalate, broadening inflation beyond energy prices. In the event that both core inflation and inflation expectations drift higher we would expect the BoC to be ready to respond.”

Douglas Porter
Douglas Porter

Doug Porter, Chief Economist, BMO Capital Markets, said: ​​”Like all central banks, the conflict in Iran has put the BoC in a tough spot, with growth risks tilted to the downside, while inflation risks have mounted. The Bank suggests it’s still too early to properly assess the net impact on the Canadian economy. Policy is thus on hold until there’s more information on the duration and extent of the energy price shock. It’s also abundantly clear that the BoC was more concerned about the outlook prior to the war, and would have been even more dovish in (Wednesday’s)  statement were it not for the spike in oil prices.”

More from Retail Insider:

Small business confidence loses momentum amid rising energy costs: CFIB

Ketut Subiyanto
Ketut Subiyanto

The long-term small business confidence index lost 9.5 points, dropping to 55.8 points in March, finds the March Business Barometer released Thursday by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB).

Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index above 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be stronger over the next three or 12 months outnumber those expecting weaker performance.

Andreea Bourgeois
Andreea Bourgeois

“Just when we saw a glimmer of hope, fuel prices and supply chains are causing hardships again. The 12-month index improved gradually over much of the past year, though with some fluctuations, but this month, it has dropped sharply to levels recorded last fall,” said Andreea Bourgeois, CFIB director of economics. 

Several cost concerns increased this month, with the share of businesses worried about fuel costs jumping from 36% in February to 50% in March. Input product and raw material costs were top of mind for 44% of small firms, compared to 32% in February, said the CFIB, which is Canada’s largest association of small and medium-sized businesses with 103,000 members across every industry and region.

Average wage increase plans were steady at 2.2%, while price plans saw a big jump to 2.7% from 2.2% in the previous month, it added.

The CFIB said over half (57%) of small businesses also reported challenges with insufficient demand, up from 50% in February. This indicator has been above its historical average (38%) for two and half years, and is at its highest ever this month, save for March 2025 (59%).

Simon Gaudreault
Simon Gaudreault

“Weak domestic and international demand has been a major pain point for small business owners for the past two years, and we’re already hearing concerns that high prices at the pump will put even more pressure on both businesses and consumers,” said Simon Gaudreault, CFIB chief economist and vice-president of research.

“There’s still a lot of uncertainty, and so far, governments are failing when it comes to small business policies. While we may not be able to control much in the short term, it’s crucial that Canada move quickly on projects that increase our domestic energy supply and capacity so that we can better weather future instability.”

More from Retail Insider:

AutoCanada announces Q4 results

AutoCanada photo
AutoCanada photo

AutoCanada Inc., a multi-location North American automobile dealership group, recently reported its financial results for the three-month period ended December 31, 2025.

Key highlights:

  • Revenue from continuing operations was $1,116.6 million as compared to $1,265.8 million in the prior year, a decrease of $149.2 million
  • Net loss for the period from total operations was $(14.6) million as compared to $(38.4) million in the prior year
    • Net (loss) income from continuing operations was $(2.3) million as compared to $9.8 million in the prior year
    • Net loss from discontinued operations was $(12.2) million as compared to net loss of $(48.2) million in the prior year
  • Diluted net (loss) income per share from continuing operations of $(0.06) as compared to $0.45 in the prior year
  • Adjusted EBITDA from total operations was $26.3 million as compared to $47.1 million in the prior year
    • Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations was $32.7 million as compared to $54.4 million in the prior year
    • Adjusted EBITDA from discontinued operations was $(6.4) million as compared to $(7.3) million in the prior year
  • Total Net Funded Debt to Bank EBITDA Ratio2 Increased from 3.40x as at September 30, 2025 to 3.44x as at December 31, 2025

“Fourth quarter performance was shaped by a more challenging market backdrop. Demand was affected by prior-period pull-forward activity, including the sunset of Canadian EV tax credits that benefited the fourth quarter of 2024 and tariff-related policy changes that drove stronger demand in the first half of 2025. At the same time, affordability pressures persisted and industry gross profit per unit declined as vehicle availability improved and pricing normalized. Industry wide performance was impacted in the fourth quarter by these dynamics, which have also created tough comparisons as we entered 2026,” said Samuel Cochrane, CEO

“Against that backdrop, AutoCanada navigated a period of significant internal change as we progressed through a leadership transition while simultaneously completing our cost transformation. Over the course of 2025, we achieved approximately $115 million in annualized run-rate cost savings.

“The pace and scope of the transformation created temporary operational disruption at the store level in the second half of 2025, impacting sales productivity and performance relative to the broader market. We have identified the issues, put new operating leadership in place, and are focused on closing the gap to market through 2026.”

Samuel Cochrane
Samuel Cochrane

AutoCanada’s Canadian Operations segment operates 64 franchised dealerships in Canada, comprised of 23 automotive brands across 8 provinces as well as three independent used dealerships. AutoCanada currently sells Acura, Audi, BMW, Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Chrysler, Dodge, Ford, GMC, Honda, Hyundai, Infiniti, Jeep, Kia, Mazda, Mercedes-Benz, MINI, Nissan, Porsche, Ram, Subaru, and Volkswagen vehicles. In 2025, its Canadian dealerships sold approximately 71,000 new and used retail vehicles.

In addition, AutoCanada’s Canadian Operations segment operates 33 collision centres, supported by 26 Original Equipment Manufacturer certifications covering 37 vehicle brands.

AutoCanada photo
AutoCanada photo

AutoCanada’s U.S. Operations segment, operating as Leader Automotive Group, operates 12 franchised dealerships comprised of 9 brands, in Illinois, USA. Leader currently sells Audi, Hyundai, Kia, Lincoln, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, Subaru, Toyota, and Volkswagen branded vehicles. In 2025, its U.S. dealerships sold approximately 8,000 new and used retail vehicles.

“Looking ahead, our priorities for 2026 are clear: stabilizing and improving our automotive retail operations, continuing to expand our collision platform, strengthening the support our head office provides to dealerships and collision centres, recruiting and retaining a high-performing team, and maintaining a lean and efficient cost structure,” said Cochrane.

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Canada’s Women’s Plus-Size Retail Market Shifts

Lane Bryant department in a Walmart store in Toronto. Photo: Walmart Canada

Canada’s women’s plus-size apparel market is entering a period of structural change, driven by new brand entry, evolving distribution models, and intensifying competition across price tiers.

According to Trendex research’s Q1 2026 Canadian Apparel Insights report, the Canadian plus-size market reached approximately $4.4 billion in 2025, positioning it as one of the most significant and resilient segments within the broader apparel landscape. At a time when overall apparel growth is forecast to slow in 2026, the plus-size category is becoming more competitive rather than retreating.

The most visible catalyst in this shift is Lane Bryant’s entry into Canada through an exclusive partnership with Walmart Canada, marking a new phase in how international apparel brands are choosing to access the Canadian market.

A Market Long Dominated by a Few Players

Historically, Canada’s plus-size apparel market has been shaped by a relatively small group of established retailers, with Penningtons, now operating under the PENN. banner, and Walmart Canada emerging as the dominant national players. Together, these companies have defined much of the accessible and mid-market plus-size offering across the country over the past decade.

PENN., which operates approximately 86 stores nationally, continues to stand as the most prominent dedicated plus-size retail banner in Canada. The company has evolved its positioning through a “house of brands” approach that integrates Addition Elle as a leading sub-brand across both physical stores and e-commerce. While the core Penningtons assortment remains focused on everyday wear and comfort, Addition Elle contributes a more fashion-forward dimension, particularly in occasionwear and lingerie, where it retains strong recognition among consumers.

At the mass-market level, Walmart Canada offers unmatched reach, with more than 400 stores nationwide. This scale positions the retailer as the most accessible entry point for plus-size apparel in the country. In early 2026, Walmart introduced a notable shift in its apparel strategy through an exclusive partnership with KnitWell Group and Centric Brands to launch Lane Bryant in Canada. The rollout spans approximately 320 stores as well as Walmart.ca, consolidating previous fragmented assortments into a more cohesive, single-brand presentation.

Although both PENN. and Walmart serve the same customer segment, their approaches continue to diverge. PENN. draws on decades of experience in fit and specialization, supported by a more curated in-store environment. Walmart, by contrast, is leveraging scale and brand partnerships to elevate its fashion credibility while maintaining competitive price points. As both retailers continue to invest in digital capabilities and product development, the Canadian plus-size sector is entering a more competitive phase, shaped by rising consumer expectations around both style and accessibility.

Lane Bryant at a Walmart store in Quebec. Photo via TikTok

A Monobrand Destination Strategy

One of the most notable aspects of the Walmart Canada rollout is the consolidation of the retailer’s plus-size assortment around a single branded destination.

Instead of offering a fragmented mix of private labels and smaller brands, Walmart has repositioned the category as a Lane Bryant-led monobrand presentation in participating stores. The move represents a meaningful shift in merchandising philosophy. It prioritizes brand equity, fit consistency, and customer clarity over assortment breadth.

From a competitive standpoint, this strategy creates immediate pressure for other mid-market plus-size retailers. Lane Bryant enters with more than a century of brand history, strong awareness among cross-border shoppers, and a reputation for fit and specialization. By pairing that credibility with Walmart’s value positioning, the partnership reshapes expectations around accessibility and price.

Positioning Across Price and Age

Trendex’s analysis of the Canadian plus-size market suggests a clear segmentation by both price and age. At the lower price end, Walmart and Torrid capture value-oriented shoppers. At higher price points, Laura Plus and Toni+ appeal to more mature and premium customers. Penningtons occupies a broad mid-market position.

Lane Bryant, according to the Trendex positioning framework, enters near the centre of the market. It targets women aged 25 to 55 with a mix of trend-forward styles and wardrobe staples, while maintaining accessible price points. That middle positioning allows the brand to compete across multiple fronts simultaneously.

By launching through Walmart, Lane Bryant gains national distribution while avoiding the capital intensity of standalone store expansion. The strategy also acknowledges the narrowing range of viable large-format retail entry points in Canada.

Competitive Pressure in a Slower Growth Environment

Trendex forecasts a deceleration in overall apparel sales beginning in the second quarter of 2026, following strong growth in 2025. In a slower growth environment, share shifts become more consequential. Gains by one retailer typically come at the expense of another.

Plus-size apparel has historically been underserved in Canada, with consumers often citing limited assortment, inconsistent fit, and fewer recognizable brands compared with the U.S. The arrival of Lane Bryant addresses some of those longstanding gaps. 

However, it also intensifies competition in a category that is unlikely to expand rapidly in line with overall population growth.

In practical terms, this means incumbents may need to sharpen differentiation strategies, whether through fit expertise, loyalty programs, digital engagement, or elevated in-store experience.

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