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Loblaw Says Canadians Continue Trading Down as Discount Growth Accelerates

Loblaws at Maple Leaf Gardens in Toronto. Photo: Loblaws

Canadian consumers continue to prioritize value as economic pressure and elevated food costs reshape grocery shopping habits across the country, according to executives at Loblaw Companies Limited during the company’s first quarter 2026 earnings call. The retailer reported continued strength in its discount banners, growing demand for promotions and private label products, and an ongoing shift toward lower-cost food purchases as shoppers remain cautious with spending.

The company delivered first quarter revenue growth of 4.2% year-over-year to $14.48 billion, while adjusted diluted net earnings per share increased 10.6%. Loblaw also reported strong momentum in both food and pharmacy operations, supported by new store openings and continued expansion across Canada.

Executives, however, spent much of the call discussing how Canadians are continuing to adjust purchasing behaviour in response to affordability pressures.

“We are seeing right now is more of the same,” said President and CEO Per Bank during the earnings call. “Customers, they are still doing what they did in the last quarter. They are trading down.”

Consumers Continue Seeking Lower-Cost Grocery Options

Loblaw executives pointed to changing purchasing patterns across core grocery categories as consumers increasingly gravitate toward lower-cost alternatives and promotional pricing.

Per Bank cited chicken sales as one example, noting that customers are buying fewer premium “free-from” products while increasingly purchasing entry-level offerings instead.

Per Bank
Per Bank

“It’s a double-digit decline in the free form, it’s a double up in our opening price point,” he said during the call.

Executives also noted consumers are purchasing fewer steaks while shifting toward lower-cost proteins such as minced beef, alongside increased promotional shopping activity across the grocery business.

The comments reflect broader trends unfolding across Canada’s grocery sector, where value-focused shopping habits continue to shape retail performance. Loblaw executives said the company’s internal food inflation metrics remain below Canada’s grocery CPI rate of 4.4%, which management attributed partly to promotional strategies, loyalty offers, and efforts to resist supplier price increases.

Private label products also continued to outperform national brands during the quarter, according to management, as consumers increasingly seek lower-cost alternatives without sacrificing perceived quality.

Maxi store. Photo: Loblaw Companies

Discount Banners Continue Driving Growth

Loblaw’s discount banners, particularly No Frills and Maxi, remained among the company’s strongest growth drivers during the quarter as consumers continued prioritizing affordability.

The company opened five new hard discount stores during the quarter and plans to open approximately 30 discount locations in total during 2026.

Executives said newer discount locations have been generating particularly strong results. Loblaw noted that 28 hard discount stores opened since 2023 are averaging double-digit same-store sales growth.

Management also emphasized that many new stores are being developed in underserved markets where discount grocery penetration has historically been limited.

Per Bank highlighted Vancouver Island as an example, noting that Loblaw operated only one No Frills location there when he joined the company in 2023. By the end of this year, the retailer expects to have four stores operating on Vancouver Island, with additional locations already planned.

The company also cited Sudbury, Ontario, where Loblaw previously had no No Frills stores despite a population of approximately 166,000 residents. The retailer now operates two locations in the market and said performance has exceeded expectations.

Loblaw Reducing Store Construction Costs

Executives also revealed that Loblaw has reduced grocery store construction costs by approximately 30% over the past several years through operational and design efficiencies.

According to Chief Financial Officer Richard Dufresne, the company has focused heavily on reducing refrigeration costs, accelerating store construction timelines, and testing semi-assembled building components to improve development economics.

Management said these efficiencies allow Loblaw to expand into smaller Canadian communities while maintaining acceptable returns on investment.

“For every dollar that we reduce our construction cost, it just drives up our IRR,” Dufresne said.

The comments underscore how major grocery operators are increasingly adapting real estate strategies to support discount expansion and smaller-format growth opportunities across Canada.

Loblaws at Humbertown Plaza in Toronto. Photo: Loblaw Companies

Conventional Grocery Stores Still Performing Well

While discount banners continue outperforming, Loblaw executives stressed that the company’s conventional grocery operations also remain healthy.

The retailer pointed to strong performance at banners including Fortinos and T&T Supermarket, with management highlighting continued growth in multicultural grocery offerings and preferred food categories.

Executives also said conventional stores continued gaining tonnage and market share against competitors despite cautious consumer spending.

The company’s food same-store sales grew 2.4% during the quarter, while absolute food sales increased 3.9%.

Loblaw additionally reported continued momentum in e-commerce, with online sales increasing 20.3% year-over-year, driven by growth in PC Express delivery and third-party delivery integration.

New concept No Frills store in Komoka. Image: Loblaw Companies

Discount Grocery Growth Continues Reshaping Canadian Retail

The latest results reinforce how discount grocery continues evolving from a temporary inflation-era response into a more deeply embedded consumer behaviour trend across Canada.

Although executives said shopping patterns have not materially worsened in recent months, the company acknowledged that consumers remain cautious and highly focused on value across multiple categories.

At the same time, Loblaw is continuing to invest aggressively in discount grocery expansion, supply chain modernization, e-commerce, and operational efficiencies as competition intensifies across Canada’s grocery sector.

The company plans to open approximately 70 stores in total during 2026, including both grocery and pharmacy locations.

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Edo Japan expands across Canada as franchisee reinvestment drives growth and multi-unit ownership

Edo Japan photo
Edo Japan photo

Edo Japan is accelerating its expansion across Canada, building on a franchise model that continues to attract new franchise partners while driving sustained reinvestment from its existing network. 

Founded in Calgary, the quick‑service restaurant brand specializing in Japanese‑style cuisine is nearing 220 locations nationwide, with approximately 70 per cent of franchisees committed to multi‑unit ownership.

That depth of reinvestment underscores growing confidence in the brand’s long‑term performance and scalability, as operators expand their portfolios over time rather than cycling out of the system.

Dave Minnett, President & CEO of Edo Japan, said the key for the company in its growth is that franchisees have developed confidence in the model over time.

“Franchisees choose to reinvest when they see a business that is stable, relevant and built to perform across different markets and cycles. That level of confidence is earned. It comes from consistently delivering strong unit economics, maintaining a clear and disciplined operating model and continuing to evolve the brand so it stays meaningful to guests,” he said.

Dave Minnett, President & CEO of Edo Japan
Dave Minnett, President & CEO of Edo Japan

“We’ve been doing this for a long time, and that consistency matters. When an operator can look at their first location and see predictable performance, a clear path to growth and a brand that’s still gaining traction, expanding into additional locations becomes a very rational decision.”

Minnett said the brand has always approached the model with the belief that you have to get the first location right before anything else.

“If the fundamentals are strong at the unit level, growth tends to follow naturally. Many of our franchisees started with a single restaurant and expanded over time as they built confidence in the consistency of the model. From there, it’s about removing friction as they scale. We’ve built a framework that supports growth in a practical way, whether that’s around site selection, build-out, training or ongoing operations,” he said.

“Just as importantly, the relationship evolves. Early on, there’s a lot of focus on getting the day-to-day right. As operators grow, the conversations shift toward portfolio performance, team development and longer-term planning. The goal is to keep the business straightforward at the store level, while giving experienced operators the structure and access they need to grow in a disciplined way.”

Edo Japan photo
Edo Japan photo

The brand has been around for 47 years, Minnett says that comes from staying focused on the fundamentals.

“The food has to be good, the brand has to mean something to guests and the business has to work for the people operating it. That’s been consistent from the beginning. At the same time, we’ve never stood still. We’ve continued to evolve where it matters, whether that’s the look and feel of the restaurants, the menu or how we connect with guests digitally,” he explained.

Multi-unit Edo Japan franchisee Ken Chow
Multi-unit Edo Japan franchisee Ken Chow

For multi-unit franchisee Ken Chow, in Alberta and Ontario, what first drew him to Edo Japan was how strong and recognizable the brand already was.

“People knew it, trusted it, and kept coming back, which gave me a lot of confidence right out of the gate. After opening my first location, I started to really understand the model and how it performs day to day. It’s a business where if you stay disciplined and execute well, you can see consistent results. That made the decision to grow feel a lot more like a smart next step than a big leap,” he said.

Like many franchisees, his first location was very hands-on. He learned the business inside and out, from operations to staffing to guest experience.

“As the restaurant became more established and I built a strong team, I realized the model was scalable. Each new location came with its own learning curve, but the foundation was always there. Over time, my role shifted from working in the business to working on the business, which is really what made multi-unit ownership possible,” added Chow.

“What made it easier to scale was how clear and repeatable the system is. There are solid processes in place, from training to operations, so you’re not starting from scratch with each new location. A big part of it also comes down to building strong leaders in each restaurant.

Edo Japan photo
Edo Japan photo

“Once you have the right people in place, it becomes much more manageable to grow. There’s support there when you need it, especially around openings or when something new comes up, but a lot of the confidence comes from knowing the model works and you can apply it consistently across locations.”

When asked what he would say to entrepreneurs considering a franchise opportunity but unsure about long-term growth potential, he replied: “I’d say look closely at the franchisees who’ve already been invested in the business for years and ask yourself why they’re still here.

“In Edo Japan’s case, the fact that so many operators continue to reinvest speaks volumes. Franchising is a long-term decision, and Edo Japan is a brand that continues to evolve while staying true to what made it successful in the first place. If you’re looking for a community you can grow with over time, that track record really matters.”

Edo Japan photo
Edo Japan photo

For more information on Edo Japan’s franchising model, visit: https://franchising.edojapan.com/

(This story was created in collaboration with Edo Japan)

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Daily Synopsis: May 6, 2026

Retail Insider’s latest articles are listed below alongside Canadian Retail News From Around the Web. Edo Japan’s expansion highlights strong franchisee reinvestment and multi-unit ownership fueling growth. RioCan’s Q1 results reveal a surge in retail leasing with near full occupancy and rapid re-leasing of Hudson’s Bay spaces. Together, these developments and others illustrate a retail landscape balancing franchise scalability and tightening commercial real estate markets, signaling cautious optimism amid evolving consumer behaviour.

 

🗞️ The Day’s Retail Insider Article List

 

🌐 Canadian Retail News From Around the Web

RioCan Sees Retail Leasing Surge as HBC Spaces Refilled

RioCan's head office at Yonge Eglinton Centre in Toronto. Photo: McGregor Allsop

Canada’s largest retail-focused REIT is seeing accelerating momentum as demand for space remains strong, rents rise sharply, and vacant department store boxes begin to fill.

RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust reported first quarter 2026 results that reinforce a narrative increasingly evident across the Canadian retail landscape: well-located retail real estate is tightening, and landlords are gaining leverage.

The company’s performance reflects a combination of structural factors, including limited new supply, sustained demand from essential retailers, and the ongoing absorption of large-format vacancies left behind by legacy department store Hudson’s Bay Company.

Leasing Spreads Signal Strength in the Market

RioCan posted blended leasing spreads of 25.8% in the quarter, with new leasing spreads reaching 58.5%. Over the past twelve months, blended spreads have averaged 23.1%, pointing to sustained upward pressure on rents.

President and CEO Jonathan Gitlin described the current environment as a “retail leasing super cycle,” driven by expiring legacy leases and a lack of new supply.

Jonathan Gitlin
Jonathan Gitlin

The results are not isolated. Instead, they reflect a broader shift in market dynamics, where existing assets are being repriced to current market levels after years of more modest growth.

“We continue to benefit from a favorable retail leasing environment,” Gitlin said on the company’s earnings call, noting that the trend is supported by high-quality assets in densely populated markets.

Occupancy Remains Near Full Capacity

RioCan’s retail portfolio remains effectively full, with committed occupancy at 98.6% and a retention rate of 92.4%. The high occupancy levels underscore the lack of available space across major markets.

Demand continues to be driven primarily by necessity-based tenants, including grocery stores, pharmacies, and essential personal services. These categories have proven resilient despite broader economic pressures, and they are continuing to expand in key urban nodes.

At the same time, limited turnover is constraining the amount of space available for new entrants, intensifying competition for well-located units.

Exterior of the former Hudson’s Bay building at Oakville Place, to become Nations Experience.

Former Hudson’s Bay Spaces Begin to Fill

A notable development in the quarter was progress in leasing former department store space.

RioCan highlighted that vacant boxes at properties such as Oakville Place and Georgian Mall, previously occupied by Hudson’s Bay, have already been fully leased. While some of these tenants have not yet commenced rent payments, the rapid backfilling of these large-format spaces signals strong underlying demand.

The absorption of former Hudson’s Bay locations is significant given the scale of vacancies created by the company’s exit from multiple markets. Across Canada, former department store spaces have represented one of the largest sources of available retail square footage.

RioCan’s experience suggests that well-located assets are being repositioned more quickly than some observers anticipated.

No New Supply Reinforces Landlord Advantage

A key theme emerging from RioCan’s commentary is the absence of meaningful new retail supply.

Gitlin emphasized that barriers to development remain high, including land availability, zoning constraints, and construction costs. As a result, new ground-up retail projects are unlikely to materially impact the market in the near term.

The lack of supply is extending the runway for existing assets, allowing landlords to capture rent growth as leases roll over.

“If RioCan can’t find viable land and opportunities to build new sites, it’s likely others will face the same challenges,” Gitlin said.

This dynamic is contributing to a structural shift in the sector, where value is increasingly concentrated in existing, well-located properties.

Georgian Mall in Barrie. Photo: RioCan

Leasing Economics Continue to Evolve

Beyond headline rent growth, RioCan is also reshaping lease structures.

New leases increasingly include annual rent escalations, typically in the range of 2% to 4%. At the same time, the company is reducing reliance on percentage rent and negotiating more predictable long-term agreements.

These changes reflect a shift toward more stable and transparent income streams, aligning retail leasing more closely with other commercial real estate asset classes.

The approach also positions landlords to better capture inflationary growth over time.

Capital Recycling Refocuses Strategy on Retail

RioCan continues to advance its capital recycling program through the sale of residential assets under its RioCan Living platform.

As of early May, the company expects to repatriate approximately $1.04 billion, representing about 80% of its $1.3 billion target. Proceeds are being redeployed into retail-focused investments, unit repurchases, and balance sheet improvements.

The strategy is simplifying the business while sharpening its focus on core retail operations.

At the same time, RioCan is investing in intensification opportunities within its existing portfolio, including retail infill and site enhancements designed to increase density and productivity.

Toronto Stock Yards Village
Toronto Stock Yards Village, image via RioCan

Outlook Remains Stable as Growth Continues

RioCan reaffirmed its 2026 outlook, including same-property net operating income growth of 3.5% to 4% and core funds from operations of $1.60 to $1.62 per unit.

The company expects leasing momentum to continue, supported by strong fundamentals and limited supply.

While leasing spreads may fluctuate from quarter to quarter, the broader trajectory remains positive.

Retail Real Estate Enters a New Phase

RioCan’s results point to a sector that is no longer defined by excess space or weak demand.

Instead, the Canadian retail market is entering a phase characterized by constrained supply, strong tenant demand, and rising rents. The rapid leasing of former Hudson’s Bay spaces adds another layer to that narrative, suggesting that even large vacancies can be absorbed in the current environment.

For landlords, the implications are clear. Pricing power is returning, and the value of well-located retail real estate is being reinforced.

For retailers, the environment is becoming more competitive, as access to prime space tightens and occupancy costs rise.

As 2026 unfolds, RioCan’s performance will serve as a key indicator of how durable these trends prove to be across the broader market.

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Restaurant Brands International Inc. reports Q1 2026 results, 6.2% sales growth

Image: Tim Hortons

Restaurant Brands International Inc. reported Wednesday financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026.

Josh Kobza
Josh Kobza

The company said system-wide sales grew by 6.2% compared with last year.

“We delivered a strong start to the year, converting solid topline results into double-digit earnings growth while returning capital to shareholders through the resumption of share repurchases and our growing dividend. Tim Hortons and International each delivered their 20th consecutive quarter of positive comparable sales. And at Burger King, our results reflect several years of hard work by our franchisees and teams to elevate the guest experience, driving stronger engagement and clear outperformance. We’re executing against the plan we laid out during our Investor Day in February and remain confident in the path ahead,” said Josh Kobza, Chief Executive Officer of RBI.

The company said system-wide sales reached $347 million US in the quarter, up from $322 million US for the same period a year ago.

Restaurant Brands International Inc. is one of the world’s largest quick service restaurant companies with nearly $48 billion in annual system-wide sales and roughly 33,000 restaurants in more than 120 countries and territories. RBI owns four of the world’s most prominent and iconic quick service restaurant brands – Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs.

RBI’s principal executive offices are in Miami, Florida. In North America, RBI’s brands are headquartered in their home markets where they were founded decades ago: Canada for Tim Hortons and the U.S. for Burger King, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs.

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KITS Eyecare reports record Q1 2026 results

Marcelo Chagas photo
Marcelo Chagas photo

 Kits Eyecare Ltd., a leading vertically integrated eyecare provider, today announced its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026.

First Quarter 2026 Financial & Operational Highlights

For the first quarter of 2026, compared to the first quarter of 2025:

  • Revenue increased by 23.3% to a record $57.5 million compared to $46.6 million. In constant currency, revenue increased by 27.0%
  • Gross profit increased by 37.5% to $23.5 million, or 40.9% of revenue, compared to $17.1 million, or 36.7% of revenue
  • Adjusted EBITDA margin was 7.2% at $4.1 million of Adjusted EBITDA, compared to 7.4% at $3.5 million of Adjusted EBITDA
  • Record Q1 glasses revenue of $10.8 million, increased 60.5% year-over-year; over 156,000 units delivered, increased by 50.0% year-over-year
  • Net Income increased by 23.2% to $2.0 million or $0.06 per share, compared to $1.6 million or $0.05 per share

“This quarter reflects continued momentum across the platform, with revenue up 23% (27% on a constant currency basis) and glasses revenue growing over 60% year-over-year,” said Roger Hardy, Co-Founder and CEO of KITS. “Our glasses category was a standout in the first quarter, where increasing scale and higher-value customer behavior began to compound. This shift, combined with the durability of our contact lens platform, positions us to continue to drive sustained profitable growth across the business.”

Roger Hardy
Roger Hardy

The company said the contact lens segment continued to deliver durable, recurring revenue, expanding to $46.7 million, while the eyeglasses segment accelerated as a growth driver, generating a record first quarter glasses revenue of $10.8 million, a 60.5% year-over-year increase.

Glasses units delivered reached approximately 156,000, with premium lens upgrades outpacing overall unit growth, rising 75.5% year-over-year and representing 41.8% of glasses revenue, it said.

“Profitability metrics remained robust as the Company reported its 14th consecutive quarter of positive Adjusted EBITDA, totaling $4.1 million for the quarter. Reported gross margin of 40.9% includes a $2.1 million non-recurring tariff recovery; excluding this item, gross margin remained above 37%, reflecting the strength of the underlying product mix and continued customer adoption of premium upgrades. Net income for the first quarter was $2.0 million, compared to $1.6 million in the prior year period,” it said.

“We believe this sustained profitability was anchored by the high level of recurring behavior within the KITS customer community. Repeat orders accounted for 63.9% of total Q1 revenue, providing a stable foundation that helps allow for efficient customer acquisition and reinforces the long-term scalability of the KITS platform. During the quarter, the Company acquired 99,900 new customers, and the two-year Active Customer base increased 17.1% year-over-year to 1,108,000.”

For the second quarter of 2026, KITS management said it expects revenue to be in the range of $57.0 million to $59.0 million, with Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of revenue between 3.0% and 5.0%.

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Loblaw reports Q1 retail revenue of close to $14.5 billion

New concept No Frills store in Komoka. Image: Loblaw Companies

Loblaw Companies Limited announced Wednesday its unaudited financial results for the first quarter ended March 28, 2026.

Loblaw said it delivered a strong first quarter with positive sales momentum. Continued same-store sales growth in Food Retail, increased customer traffic, e-commerce sales growth, and new store openings drove topline performance.

It said the company’s discount banners outperformed again, demonstrating that Canadians are responding well to greater access to Maxi and NoFrills stores. E-commerce sales were led by growth in PC Express delivery, plus the successful integration of third-party delivery options. In Drug Retail, growth continued to reflect positive trends in prescription volumes, specialty drugs, and beauty categories. Drug Retail performance underscored the strength of the Company’s healthcare services and commitment to meeting the evolving needs of Canadians, added the company.

Loblaw said continued its focus on strategic expansion and innovation during the quarter, including opening five Hard Discount stores and eight drug stores, bringing convenient access to nutritious food and essential healthcare services to more communities.

Photo- Per Bank LinkedIn
Photo- Per Bank LinkedIn

“We are very pleased that our strategic investments in opening new stores, and our focus on value, are resonating with Canadians and helping us to deliver strong financial results,” said Per Bank, President and Chief Executive Officer, Loblaw Companies Limited. “From the breadth of our banners and the continued growth of PC ExpressTM delivery, to the consistent strength of our pharmacy services, we are demonstrating our commitment to being there when and where our customers need us most.” 

2026 FIRST QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS

  • Retail revenue was $14,484 million, an increase of $580 million, or 4.2%. Retail revenue increased by 4.5%, excluding the impact of revenue related to Wellwise by Shoppers and the Theodore & Pringle optical business.
    • Food Retail (Loblaw) same-store sales increased by 2.4%.
    • Drug Retail (Shoppers Drug Mart) same-store sales increased by 4.1%, with pharmacy and healthcare services same-store sales growth of 6.7% and front store same-store sales growth of 1.0%.
    • E-commerce sales increased by 20.3%.
  • Revenue (including Retail and PC Financial) was $14,724 million, an increase of $589 million, or 4.2%.
  • Retail gross profit percentage of 31.4% was stable, decreasing by 10 basis points, primarily driven by changes in sales mix in Drug Retail categories, partially offset by continued improvements in shrink. Food Retail gross margin was flat.
  • Retail operating income was $1,010 million, an increase of $172 million, or 20.5%.
  • Retail adjusted EBITDA was $1,607 million, an increase of $98 million, or 6.5%.
    • Selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of sales was 20.3%, a decrease of 40 basis points.
  • Net earnings available to common shareholders of the Company were $594 million, an increase of $91 million or 18.1%. Diluted net earnings per common share were $0.50, an increase of $0.08, or 19.0%. The increase included the impact of lower amortization related to certain intangible assets associated with the 2014 acquisition of Shoppers Drug Mart, which are now fully amortized.
  • Adjusted net earnings available to common shareholders of the Company were $609 million, an increase of $39 million, or 6.8%. Adjusted diluted net earnings per common share were $0.52, an increase of $0.05, or 10.6%.
  • Repurchased for cancellation 10.2 million common shares at a cost of $648 million. Gross capital investments were $312 million.
  • Free cash flow from Retail was $432 million, an increase of $729 million.
  • In connection with the sale of PC Financial, Loblaw expects to receive approximately $600 million in cash, representing the release of excess capital, cash consideration from EQB Inc., and collection of certain commodity tax receivables.
  • Quarterly common share dividend increased by 10%, marking the fifteenth consecutive year of dividend increases.

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Happy Belly Expands Footprint as It Nears 100 Locations

Yolks in Toronto. Photo: RI/Google

Happy Belly Food Group is moving quickly to establish itself as a significant emerging player in Canada’s restaurant sector, with rapid unit expansion driving strong revenue growth while introducing new operational pressures.

 

According to a May 1 research report from Stifel analyst Martin Landry, the company reported Q4 2025 revenue of $5.8 million, representing a 183 per cent increase year over year, supported by strong system-wide sales and continued network expansion. The company ended the quarter with 77 locations, up from 43 a year earlier, and has since accelerated its pace of openings.

Martin Landry
Martin Landry

Momentum has continued into 2026. Happy Belly opened 17 new restaurants between January and April, representing a roughly 22 per cent increase in its network, and is expected to reach approximately 100 locations by late May or early June. The company is also preparing to enter the United States, with initial locations planned for Texas in the coming months.

This pace of expansion positions Happy Belly as a growing multi-brand restaurant platform, a model that has historically proven scalable in Canada when supported by disciplined execution and franchise-led growth.

Multi-Brand Platform Strategy Underpins Growth

Happy Belly operates a portfolio of restaurant concepts spanning several fast-casual categories, including Rosie’s Burgers, Heal Wellness, iQ Foods, and Yolks. The brands range from smash burgers and açaí bowls to wraps and all-day breakfast, allowing the company to target multiple dayparts and consumer preferences. The company’s structure is heavily weighted toward franchising, with more than 70 per cent of locations operated by franchise partners, allowing for capital-efficient expansion.

The strategy reflects a broader approach seen in successful Canadian operators, where growth is driven by scaling multiple concepts across a shared infrastructure. In Happy Belly’s case, the pipeline is substantial, with more than 650 potential locations identified, suggesting a long runway for expansion if execution remains consistent.

Stifel maintains a positive outlook on the company, citing its experienced leadership team and early execution as key strengths. The management group previously built and exited restaurant brands at scale, which supports confidence in the company’s ability to grow its footprint.

Rapid Expansion Brings Short-Term Pressure

While revenue growth has been significant, the pace of expansion is creating near-term pressure on profitability.

Happy Belly reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of approximately $0.5 million in Q4, reflecting the impact of upfront costs tied to new restaurant openings. These include training, travel, and operational support for franchisees, which are incurred before locations begin generating revenue.

Landry notes that this dynamic creates a mismatch between revenue and expenses during periods of accelerated growth, a pattern that is expected to continue in the near term as the company expands its network.

Seasonality also played a role, with the fourth quarter typically representing a softer period for certain concepts within the portfolio, particularly those tied to health-oriented offerings.

 

Forecasts Reflect Growth, With Limited Visibility

Looking ahead, Stifel forecasts continued strong revenue expansion, with estimates of approximately $38.9 million in 2026 and $59.6 million in 2027. Profitability is expected to improve over time, with EBITDA projected to scale meaningfully as the network matures and early-stage costs normalize.

However, the report highlights that visibility remains limited given the company’s rapid growth trajectory and relatively short operating history. As a result, future performance could vary materially from current expectations, particularly as new markets are entered and the store base expands.

Capital and Execution Risks Remain Key Considerations

In addition to profitability pressures, the report points to a relatively modest cash position, with approximately $3 million on hand at the end of 2025. While the company has access to additional capital through option and warrant exercises, the balance leaves less room for error during a period of rapid expansion.

Execution risk is also a factor. The company is effectively scaling its network at a pace that could see it nearly triple its footprint over a short period, a transition that can place strain on operations, staffing, and brand consistency.

The planned entry into the U.S. market introduces another layer of complexity, requiring careful management of resources and localized execution.

Emerging Player in a Competitive Landscape

Happy Belly is expanding within a highly competitive fast-casual restaurant sector, where differentiation, pricing, and location all play critical roles in performance. Larger, more established competitors often have greater access to capital and marketing resources, increasing competitive pressure as the company scales.

At the same time, the company’s growth trajectory is beginning to position it as a more visible tenant within retail real estate environments, particularly in smaller-format spaces where fast-casual concepts continue to drive traffic.

Growth Strategy Gains Momentum as Company Approaches Key Milestone

As Happy Belly approaches the 100-location mark, its expansion strategy is clearly gaining traction. The combination of franchised growth, a multi-brand platform, and an active development pipeline provides a foundation for continued scale.

At the same time, the current phase of growth is expected to bring continued pressure on margins and execution, reflecting the realities of building a restaurant platform at speed.

If the company can balance expansion with operational discipline, it may establish itself as a notable emerging player in Canada’s restaurant landscape.

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Canada retail sector nearing turning point as rising unemployment, consumer caution signal slowdown: CoStar

Boris Ivas photo
Boris Ivas photo

A new analysis from CoStar suggests Canada’s retail sector, particularly in Toronto, may be approaching a turning point, with early signs pointing to weaker consumer spending.

While retail performance has held up so far, several forward-looking indicators are shifting:

  • Rising unemployment: Toronto’s jobless rate has climbed to nearly 9%, alongside a sharp increase in households expecting job losses
  • Growing consumer caution: Historically, declining job confidence tends to lead to pullbacks in discretionary spending like dining, apparel, and shopping centres
  • Higher cost pressures: The closing of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up fuel and transportation costs, reducing household spending on non-essential goods

Simultaneously, many households already face high housing costs and limited income growth, which increases the likelihood of more selective spending. Everyday retail needs are expected to remain stable, while discretionary retail could face slower sales, placing more pressure on tenants and widening the gap between strong and weak segments over the next year.

While consumer spending remains quite strong, in line with 2019 levels, there are a lot of indicators that suggest a softening economy,” said Ben Haythornthwaite, CoStar’s Director of Market Analytics. “Unemployment is elevated, and a consumer survey from the Bank of Canada points to the perception of impending job losses being twice as high as the unemployment rate. Coming into COVID, these two aligned. So, it is reasonable to project job losses over the next year. 

Ben Haythornthwaite
Ben Haythornthwaite

“Until now, it appears that discretionary spending has been in part underpinned by low homeownership and a lack of incentive to save for a mortgage. However, as unemployment rises, spending will have to adjust as savings rates fall. Furthermore, a significant factor underpinning retail validity and market fundamentals across Canada has been a low level of new space delivery relative to population growth. 

“With population growth projections flat over the coming year and an increase in retail development (albeit still low), we will likely see the dynamic of ever-tightening vacancy invert. Given both cyclical (labour) and structural (slower population growth) drivers, this is more than a short-term fluctuation.”

Haythornthwaite said discretionary spending softens typically within one to two quarters of labour deterioration signals. 

“Forward-looking surveys and rising unemployment expectations tend to lead actual spending declines. Given current conditions, discretionary categories like apparel and dining should begin to weaken imminently, with a more visible slowdown by late 2026 as labour softness filters through incomes and confidence. The last year has seen a material spike in the dollar value of mortgage debt in arrears over 90 days, this is another indicator that household budgets are tightening,” he said.

Haythornthwaite said discretionary, impulse-driven retail (fashion, casual dining, general merchandise) is most exposed due to reliance on confidence-driven spending, but also on a drop in passing footfall. 

“Increased unemployment means more people staying at home and fewer lunch break shop visits. Smaller tenants with weaker covenants are particularly vulnerable. Grocery-anchored, necessity-based retail remains most resilient, supported by non-discretionary demand and stable foot traffic, with stronger tenant profiles and more defensive income streams (this subsector within retail will likely strengthen. Interestingly, grocery spending is ahead of 2019 levels even when adjusted for inflation and population growth),” he noted.

Haythornthwaite said higher fuel costs raise input and distribution costs, pressuring retailer margins. Large, well-capitalized retailers may absorb some cost to maintain market share, but most will pass at least a portion through to consumers. This creates a feedback loop: higher prices suppress demand, particularly in discretionary categories, reinforcing the slowdown.

Denys Gromov photo
Denys Gromov photo

Leasing demand will likely soften, particularly for discretionary tenants, while backfill activity slows and becomes more complicated. Vacancy should edge higher, though constrained supply will limit the magnitude,” explained Haythornthwaite. 

“Rent growth will moderate for the most part rather than turn materially negative (although in real terms it will). There will be an increasing divergence: necessity-based formats remaining stable, while discretionary-oriented assets see weaker leasing activity, more incentives, and slower rent growth. This can be seen with some of the challenges faced by owners of vacated Hudson’s Bay Company stores. There have been some creative asset management angles, such as Limeridge Mall in Hamilton backfilling the space with Tesla, but also some protracted challenges like Oxford’s recent legal case in Yorkdale to keep a discount retailer (Les Ailes de la Mode) out of the space.” 

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Chopped Leaf launches premium sandwich lineup with toasted ciabatta options

Chopped Leaf photo
Chopped Leaf photo

Chopped Leaf is expanding its menu with a new premium sandwich lineup, rolling out across all locations as the Canadian chain looks to strengthen its grab-and-go and delivery offerings.

The Oakville, Ont.-based brand says the move reflects growing demand for more substantial menu items that travel well, positioning sandwiches as a core part of its business alongside salads, wraps and bowls.

The new lineup introduces two toasted ciabatta sandwiches, Southwest Steak and Chicken Club, alongside updated versions of existing items. Spicy Chipotle Chicken and Cranberry Pesto Chicken are now served on an eight-inch toasted ciabatta bun.

The company has also revised two existing comfort sandwiches, moving the Jalapeño Popper Grilled Cheese and Tuna Melt to a thicker sourdough bread.

All sandwiches include a choice of ranch or chipotle ranch dipping sauce.

Karen Paradine
Karen Paradine

“Our sandwiches were originally introduced to offer guests an alternative to salads, but they’ve evolved into a core menu offering,” said Karen Paradine, head of marketing at Chopped Leaf. “With this launch, we’ve elevated the lineup with premium ingredients and refined recipes that are more substantial and satisfying – ideal for heartier appetites. As takeout and delivery continue to grow, it was also important to ensure these sandwiches travel well, maintaining their quality and freshness.”

The company is backing the launch with a national marketing campaign spanning in-store and digital channels, along with third-party delivery promotions and influencer partnerships.

Elements of the campaign include:

  • In-store menu boards and window signage
  • Digital promotion across the company’s website and social channels
  • Influencer partnerships
  • Third-party delivery promotions
  • Exclusive in-app offers
Photo courtesy of Chopped Leaf
Photo courtesy of Chopped Leaf

During May, customers using the Chopped Leaf app will be able to earn bonus loyalty points when purchasing sandwiches. Some markets will also feature curb signage and radio advertising.

Chopped Leaf says the new lineup has been designed with off-premise dining in mind, with an emphasis on maintaining product quality during transport.

The company operates more than 120 locations open and committed to across Canada and the United States, offering dine-in, takeout and catering options.

The premium sandwich lineup is now available at all Chopped Leaf locations.

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