Canadian consumers are heading into the 2025 holiday season with tighter budgets, high expectations for deals, and growing reliance on artificial intelligence for personalized shopping experiences. According to Salesforce insights, Cyber Week will be the pivotal period for retailers to capture attention, while loyalty programs and targeted discounts will play critical roles in driving sales.
Retail Insider spoke with Caila Schwartz, Director of Consumer Strategy & Insights at Salesforce, to explore how Canadian shoppers are planning for the holiday season, what categories are likely to shine, and how AI is changing the way people discover and purchase products.
The global consumer has faced economic challenges in recent years, but Canadian shoppers appear more cautious than their international counterparts. “The Canadian consumer does not feel as much optimism in spite of these economic hardships as other regions,” Schwartz explained.
This lack of optimism is translating into more disciplined shopping habits. Consumers are planning purchases carefully, budgeting with precision, and timing buys around major discount events. “Where I see the Canadian consumer in 2025 is very similar to where I saw the global and U.S. consumer last year—being very conscious on spend and waiting for those deal events,” Schwartz said.
Cyber Week, which includes Black Friday and Cyber Monday, remains the most critical period for both retailers and shoppers. Salesforce expects Canadian consumers to use this window not only for holiday gift buying but also to splurge on big-ticket purchases they have postponed.
Cyber Week: The Prime Opportunity for Retailers
“Cyber Week is the best time of the year to get the Canadian shopper’s attention,” Schwartz said. Beyond gifting, shoppers are expected to prioritize higher-ticket items such as appliances, luxury apparel, handbags, and furniture. These categories performed strongly during Cyber Week last year, reversing weaker sales in the months leading up to the holidays.
Promotional strategies will be crucial, though retailers face a new reality: the traditional sitewide discount may be on the decline. “One of our predictions is about promotionality,” Schwartz noted. “The rate of orders transacting at checkout with a promotion code is decreasing. We’ll probably see fewer sitewide deals and more intentional discounting, such as codes applied to specific categories or one-time personalized offers.”
Rising tariffs and supply chain costs are putting pressure on margins, making precise discounting essential. “Retailers will need to be strategic. We anticipate personalized promotions becoming a bigger play,” she added.
Value Drivers: Price, Free Delivery, and Loyalty Programs
When it comes to deciding where to shop, Canadian consumers remain value-driven. Free delivery ranks as the number-one factor influencing purchase decisions, followed by lower prices. Interestingly, while global shoppers prioritize product quality in the third spot, Canadians place loyalty programs there instead.
“A loyalty program is another play on value,” Schwartz explained. “Being able to stack points, get special access to sales, or exclusive discount codes through loyalty programs is a major motivator for Canadian consumers.”
This trend is fueling increased consolidation of purchases across fewer retailers. “Shoppers are trying to stack discounts and loyalty benefits,” said Schwartz. “If I can get all of my household shopping done from one vendor and earn points, that’s better value for me than spreading it across multiple retailers.”
Salesforce data shows that the rate of repeat buyers has grown year-over-year, reinforcing this shift toward loyalty-driven consolidation.
AI Is Transforming Holiday Shopping Behaviour
Artificial intelligence is becoming a game-changer for retail, influencing both e-commerce and in-store experiences. Salesforce predicts that AI-powered tools, including popular large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT and Perplexity, will impact $260 billion in global digital sales and $1.6 trillion in global in-store sales in 2025.
Consumers are using AI in innovative ways, sometimes even while standing in a store aisle. “We’re seeing shoppers upload shelf photos into ChatGPT and ask questions,” Schwartz said. “Younger shoppers, particularly Gen Z and millennials, are leading this trend.”
The implications for retailers are significant. “The number one question I hear from brands is: how do I show up in those searches?” Schwartz said. Content and social media strategies are critical, as AI tools draw from diverse sources, including TikTok videos and consumer sentiment analysis, when generating recommendations.
Personalization is a key driver of AI adoption. “Consumers say these tools give them the best personalized recommendations,” Schwartz explained. “They’re uploading information about themselves and asking for tailored suggestions they can’t get anywhere else, not even from a store associate.”
Holiday Forecast and Key Dates
Although Salesforce will release official holiday forecasts for Canada later this summer, Schwartz expects the three-week period spanning the week before Cyber Week and the week after to be the most critical. “Once those deals ended last year, activity fell off a cliff,” she said. “Consumers plan for this time frame. If you’re not in front of them when they’re ready to buy, you may miss the sale entirely.”
Retailers are encouraged to launch promotions early and maintain momentum through the shipping cutoff window. Beyond pricing and promotions, optimizing delivery options and leveraging loyalty programs will be essential to capturing consumer attention during the compressed shopping period.
The rise of AI is shaping the future of retail beyond the holidays, creating a new battleground for consumer attention. As Schwartz put it, “It’s probably the fastest adoption of a new technology in commerce we’ve ever seen.”
