Canada’s labour market showed modest stabilization in March, yet the retail sector continues to face uneven conditions, according to new data and insights from industry experts. While overall employment edged up by 14,000 positions, retail employment declined by 6,700 jobs, reinforcing a trend that has persisted since late 2025.
Suzanne Sears, retail expert and owner of Luxury Careers International, described the current environment as stagnant but complex, with underlying shifts that could shape the months ahead.
“It’s essentially flat,” Sears said. “But when you look deeper, the story is far more nuanced. Retail hiring is moving in very different directions depending on the region.”
Regional Imbalances Signal Strategic Shift
One of the most notable developments in Canadian retail hiring trends is the divergence between provinces. Traditionally strong markets such as Ontario and British Columbia have softened, while smaller or historically underdeveloped retail markets are showing signs of growth.
Sears noted that this shift may reflect retailers searching for new opportunities beyond saturated urban centres.
“The provinces that have always led retail hiring are pulling back, while others that had little activity are picking up,” she explained. “It suggests retailers may be looking for less competitive, underpenetrated markets.”
Data supports this view. British Columbia experienced a sharp decline in wholesale and retail employment, while provinces such as Alberta and Saskatchewan recorded gains.
At the same time, Ontario’s employment levels remained largely unchanged, even as certain regions continue to face elevated unemployment rates.
Inventory Strategies Weigh on Hiring
A key factor behind the slowdown in Canadian retail hiring trends appears to be inventory management. Many retailers have adopted a cautious approach, limiting new orders and relying on unsold merchandise from previous seasons.
“If you walk into stores right now, you don’t see much spring inventory,” Sears said. “That tells you retailers either didn’t buy heavily or pushed deliveries later into the season.”
This strategy reduces the need for staffing, particularly in merchandising and floor sales. However, it carries risk if inventory arrives late or fails to sell through quickly.
Industry data aligns with this observation, pointing to lean inventory cycles as a major contributor to reduced retail employment.
Warehousing Growth Signals Future Activity
Despite weakness in retail hiring, growth in transportation and warehousing may indicate that activity is building behind the scenes. Employment in that sector rose modestly, suggesting goods are beginning to move through the supply chain.
“When warehousing and trucking increase, retail usually follows,” Sears said. “It means orders are coming in, even if they haven’t hit store shelves yet.”
This pattern could signal a delayed retail rebound, particularly as seasonal merchandise begins arriving in late spring.
Recruitment Challenges Intensify
Beyond macroeconomic trends, retailers are also grappling with structural hiring challenges. Sears emphasized a growing shortage of experienced leadership and increasing difficulty in identifying qualified candidates.
“The biggest issue right now is a lack of senior retail expertise,” she said. “Companies will have to invest heavily in training because they simply can’t find ready-made talent.”
She also pointed to unintended consequences of artificial intelligence in recruitment. While AI tools have made it easier for candidates to produce polished resumes, they have created new inefficiencies for employers.
“Everyone looks perfect on paper,” Sears explained. “It actually slows down hiring because recruiters are overwhelmed with candidates who appear equally qualified.”
According to Sears, hiring timelines have extended from roughly four weeks to as long as six to eight weeks in some cases.
Immigration Debate Not Reflected in Data
Sears also challenged common assumptions about immigration’s impact on employment. Despite a significant reduction in immigration levels, there has been little evidence that job availability has improved.
“If immigration were the issue, you would expect those jobs to open up,” she said. “That hasn’t happened.”
Instead, she noted that newcomers contribute to economic activity through spending, which supports retail demand.
External Pressures Add Complexity
Rising transportation costs and broader geopolitical uncertainty are also influencing hiring decisions. In major cities such as Toronto and Montreal, commuting costs are becoming a barrier for lower-wage retail workers.
“If people have to drive and fuel costs keep rising, some jobs simply won’t be worth taking,” Sears said.
At the same time, ongoing global tensions are contributing to cautious business planning. Sears expects limited movement in April, with a potential rebound beginning around late May as weather improves and consumer activity increases.
Outlook: Gradual Rebound Expected
While current Canadian retail hiring trends point to stagnation, there are signs that conditions may improve in the coming months. Seasonal factors, including warmer weather and delayed inventory arrivals, could help drive renewed activity.
Sears observed that consumer behaviour remains resilient, even in uncertain conditions.
“People still spend, even if it’s on smaller purchases,” she said. “And when the weather improves, traffic follows.”
