October 2024 has presented a boost for Canadian retailers, with overall sales showing a 4.5% YOY increase for All Stores and discretionary spend (All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies growing 3.6% YOY. This growth is on trend with what consumers were reporting, that they would be spending more going into the holidays (according to the Leger x RCC holiday study). However, this boost is significantly influenced by the automotive sector. When removed, growth in All Stores drops to 2.6% YOY, much more in line with inflation.
As noted, the automotive sector has emerged as a standout performer, with Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers experiencing a robust 9.5% YOY growth. This surge is particularly noteworthy given the economic uncertainties that typically dampen big-ticket purchases. Several factors, as noted in JCWG’s US NRB for November, may be driving this unexpected boom:
- New Model Releases: The introduction of 2025 vehicle models has likely stimulated consumer interest, drawing buyers to showrooms.
- Favorable Interest Rates: Potential rate decreases may have made vehicle financing more attractive, encouraging consumers to make purchases they had previously postponed.
- EV Incentives: After facing challenges in EV sales throughout 2024, automakers have responded with larger incentives, potentially driving a late-year surge in this segment.
The alcohol retail landscape presents a more complex picture. Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores saw a modest 1.9% YOY increase, a slight improvement for a category that has been struggling throughout the year. However, this uptick doesn’t tell the whole story. Convenience Stores, which recently gained the ability to sell alcohol in some regions, are down -2.0% YOY and -3.7% YTD. This suggests that the introduction of alcohol sales hasn’t been the cure-all these retailers hoped for. The category could be selling, but it is now taking space up in stores that may have been used for faster-moving products in the past. Regardless, this is surprising considering the higher price point of alcohol compared to other products at convenience stores.
Electronics and Accessories Stores have shown remarkable resilience, with sales up 7.8% YOY. This performance is particularly impressive given the category’s struggles earlier in the year. Several factors may be contributing to this turnaround:
- Prime Day Effect: Amazon’s Prime Day event likely boosted sales, with other retailers offering competitive deals to capture consumer attention.
- Refresh Cycle: Many consumers who purchased electronics during the pandemic may now be looking to upgrade their devices.
- Interest Rate Anticipation: The anticipated rate cut at the end of October may have encouraged consumers to make larger purchases they had been postponing, such as major appliances. Similarly, this uptick in electronics sales may also have had a positive effect on other high-ticket categories, such as Furniture Stores and Home Furnishings Stores (seeing modest growth of 1.6% and 2.9% YOY respectively).
As we look towards the end of Q4 and early 2025, JCWG is considering several key factors that will shape the retail landscape:
- Will Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales align with early survey predictions of increased spending?
- How will major weather shifts across Canada impact retail during early winter?
- Can we expect a boost in spending due to the tax holiday and lower interest rates?
- Will the anticipated US tariffs take effect in January?
- Are tariffs the only significant impact on Canadian retail sales from the new US administration?
- How are YOU preparing for the major upcoming changes to Canadian retail?
Canadian Retail Sales by Product Category, Same Month Comparison
| Sales for the Month of October | Oct-24 | Oct-23 | YOY |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Stores | 70,730,575 | 67,675,476 | 4.51% |
| Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers | 20,383,383 | 18,617,216 | 9.49% |
| Gasoline Stations | 6,433,882 | 6,855,550 | -6.15% |
| All Stores Less Automotive | 43,913,310 | 42,202,710 | 4.05% |
| Food and Beverage Stores | 13,054,942 | 12,487,959 | 4.54% |
| Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores* | 9,295,782 | 8,816,427 | 5.44% |
| Convenience Stores | 720,255 | 735,159 | -2.03% |
| Specialty Food Stores | 911,263 | 848,831 | 7.36% |
| Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores | 2,127,642 | 2,087,541 | 1.92% |
| Health and Personal Care Stores | 5,939,257 | 5,671,507 | 4.72% |
| All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies | 24,919,111 | 24,043,244 | 3.64% |
| General Merchandise Stores | 9,348,167 | 9,067,437 | 3.10% |
| Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronic and Appliance Stores | 3,761,387 | 3,591,967 | 4.72% |
| Furniture Stores | 1,215,232 | 1,196,382 | 1.58% |
| Home Furnishings Stores | 736,771 | 716,287 | 2.86% |
| Electronics and Appliance Stores | 1,809,384 | 1,679,298 | 7.75% |
| Clothing and Accessories Stores | 3,740,024 | 3,526,887 | 6.04% |
| Clothing Stores | 2,942,880 | 2,763,210 | 6.50% |
| Shoe Stores | 409,798 | 414,611 | -1.16% |
| Jewellery, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores | 387,347 | 349,065 | 10.97% |
| Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores | 3,840,014 | 3,739,828 | 2.68% |
| Building Material and Garden Equipment | 4,229,519 | 4,117,125 | 2.73% |
| Miscellaneous Store Retailers | 2,589,881 | 2,454,863 | 5.50% |
| Cannabis Retailers | 456,274 | 449,162 | 1.58% |
Canadian E-commerce Sales
| Ecommerce Sales | Oct-24 | Oct-23 | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year-to-Date | 37,772,654 | 35,456,880 | 6.53% |
| Year-Over-Year | 4,185,855 | 3,799,403 | 10.17% |
Canadian Retail Sales by Store Category, Year to Date Comparison
| Year-to-Date, Ending October | Oct-24 | Oct-23 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Stores | 660,513,382 | 654,016,664 | 0.99% |
| Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers | 183,553,480 | 180,263,455 | 1.83% |
| Gasoline Stations | 64,595,863 | 66,310,147 | -2.59% |
| All Stores Less Automotive | 412,364,039 | 407,443,062 | 1.21% |
| Food and Beverage Stores | 127,248,553 | 125,958,705 | 1.02% |
| Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores* | 90,513,860 | 88,733,221 | 2.01% |
| Convenience Stores | 7,229,377 | 7,510,394 | -3.74% |
| Specialty Food Stores | 8,762,472 | 8,398,053 | 4.34% |
| Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores | 20,742,846 | 21,317,033 | -2.69% |
| Health and Personal Care Stores | 55,126,616 | 52,657,281 | 4.69% |
| All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies | 229,988,870 | 228,827,076 | 0.51% |
| General Merchandise Stores | 87,558,145 | 84,074,430 | 4.14% |
| Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronic and Appliance Stores | 34,417,486 | 34,836,762 | -1.20% |
| Furniture Stores | 11,433,488 | 11,781,201 | -2.95% |
| Home Furnishings Stores | 6,766,452 | 6,922,138 | -2.25% |
| Electronics and Appliance Stores | 16,217,547 | 16,133,420 | 0.52% |
| Clothing and Accessories Stores | 32,642,818 | 32,552,675 | 0.28% |
| Clothing Stores | 25,297,944 | 25,139,281 | 0.63% |
| Shoe Stores | 3,830,122 | 3,911,293 | -2.08% |
| Jewellery, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores | 3,514,753 | 3,502,099 | 0.36% |
| Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores | 36,268,682 | 37,516,923 | -3.33% |
| Building Material and Garden Equipment | 39,101,736 | 39,846,290 | -1.87% |
| Miscellaneous Store Retailers | 23,731,056 | 24,560,644 | -3.38% |
| Cannabis Retailers | 4,252,318 | 4,284,877 | -0.76% |
Retail Trade, Canada, All Stores, by Geographic Regions
| Region | Year-to-Date 2024 | Year-to-Date 2023 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| British Columbia | 88,708,384 | 88,831,582 | -0.14% |
| Vancouver | 44,215,835 | 43,754,874 | 1.05% |
| Alberta | 85,578,567 | 84,714,889 | 1.02% |
| Prairies* | 44,003,954 | 43,211,682 | 1.83% |
| Ontario | 245,496,455 | 244,234,015 | 0.52% |
| Toronto | 110,065,745 | 110,589,208 | -0.47% |
| Québec | 148,764,164 | 146,658,902 | 1.44% |
| Montréal | 73,992,746 | 73,207,805 | 1.07% |
| Atlantic Canada | 45,599,726 | 44,119,185 | 3.36% |
| Territories | 2,362,132 | 2,246,407 | 5.15% |
Thank you J.C. Williams Group for this report.
